This is the NOAA's Forecast which is still increased activity, but expected lower than 2020.
Ana was so early, that NOAA is considering changing Season Start to MAY 15 versus JUNE 1.
Main reasons for their STATISTICAL modeling for this Prediction.
1) Neutral ENSO [La Niña/El...
This disturbance is being monitored closely.
First look shows a Canadian High, over Iowa now, will keep it off the East Coast and curve it out to be a Fish Storm.
The Good New is TD3 brings Heat Relief and that area of FL and Bahamas has a lot of Warm Water.
Small storms always help reduce...
The National Hurricane Center has this forecast.
This is lower than 2018 NHC mid year adjusted forecast!
The East Pacific , Atlantic and Caribbean storm names.
They have forecast more Hurricane Activity in the Eastern Pacific Ocean this year.
Hawaii is expecting more storms.
I post info here that is for use as you will, but I do try to be ahead of the "filtered" new cycle.
The official forecast says 75% above normal season.
I read it differently. How about 65% chance of below normal?
I quit predicting "named storm" count. Wow, how brave of NOAA ... 10-16?
By now most of you Gulf Sailors have heard of the area of Investigation 90 on the Yucatan.
A few of us, @jssailem , have been following this potential now for at least 10 days.;)
[ More on Rufus later ]
I alerted a few friends, last week, "Don't plan for a dry Gulf Memorial Day weekend":(...
Just as you might have felt tropical 2017 was done.:badbad:
The only big area of Tropical Heat potential left is south of Cuba.
The computer INVESTigation models are kicking in.
It looks like the Cold High Pressures over USA now will shield most of continental USA, pushing Invest 93 into the...
This is a rare Mid Atlantic storm. In fact there is no Historical past storms that have this path.
Path forecast is headed at Ireland over slightly warm than normal water, but should not be strengthening.
I hope all prepare, as this is a new storm event for European West coast too..
Formed fast and is moving fast.
It looks like a Northern Florida squall on ≈ 10/8/17
HIGH pressure front should move it NNE soon after Land Fall...
It is predicted to move fast [a good thing], but directly over the Cuba to Gulf hot water current Loop...
Looks like it is just wandering around, but it is stalled as a High Pressure over Bermuda Passes Eastward.
At least José is stalled in the Atlantic and de-energizing that area [not like Texas Harvey].
José should curve behind that Atlantic HIGH and flow in the trough between the HIGH over PA...
TS Irma was being noteworthy by world forecasters last Sunday.
This 2017 season, African storm "spin offs" have been formed very South of the normal birth area. Two storms, Don and Harvey, followed the this formation path. I will avoid the Harvey discussion, since the news will keep you...
The storm that over Central Florida the last two days is entering the Atlantic on east coast and spin up.
The HIGH pressure front that caused Harvey to stall will push it North East along the GA, SC & NC coast line.
The bad news, is it will "Bucket Brigade" evaporated water from Atlantic...
I have been watching 3 storms leaving West Africa for 5 days. The first is a wimp, disorganized storm between Cuba and Antiqua which should not become cyclonic.:pray:
But the next 2 storms are very noteworthy.
Tropical Depression 9 [Storm A]
Is 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles moving...
TS Gert [TD 8] is that West African Storm mentioned in the Franklin thread.
It should make a Tropical Storm status by Tuesday.
High Pressure over the East Coast should push it way to Mid Atlantic and not hit any land masses, passing West of Bermuda.:)
A very large storm [not cyclonic]...
Like PTC Emily, TS Franklin, jumps up quickly, even though they noticed the possibility on late Saturday.
It is barely cyclonic, with a very wide center, or less likely to intensify because the center pressure is moderately LOW.
The mountainous Yucatan will shred TS Franklin keeping it a...
TS Don sprung up quickly and is currently tracking through the normal NON-Hurricane areas South of the Antilles and heading toward the Dessert Islands called ABC's Aruba is most famous.
The surface water temperatures here are normal for season. This was the Matthew track and because of low...
Any activity for this season should be generally low in intensity.
Our Sun is cooling on it natural Energy cycle.
Many real scientists are predicting the ≈11 year cycle to continue through cycle #26 or ≈22 yrs
The above graph is from...
I have received my Far East Sails purchased online. I have carefully examined it. It appears to be as advertised and very good quality. It is double stitched and looks great. Looks better than one that came with boat from Catalina. Appears to be great quality. It has two reefing points and came...