• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Season 2018 Revised

Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I post info here that is for use as you will, but I do try to be ahead of the "filtered" new cycle.
The official forecast says 75% above normal season.
8189.png

I read it differently. How about 65% chance of below normal?

I quit predicting "named storm" count. Wow, how brave of NOAA ... 10-16?
I could predict 10-20.:rolleyes:
Speaking of Names...
DemRAtyXUAErt8V.jpg.jpeg


If you have been to New Orleans, they make a drink called "hurricane"
So pick your type...
DemVkLIVQAEOgTU.jpeg


If you really want to know where Hurricanes will hit, follow the WeatherChannel guy
DemxRMqW0AExXZl.jpeg

______
The uncertainty and doubt by Models and Forecasters is from the Pacific Effects.
La Niña is officially Done.
The starting of El Niño is in doubt and almost looking for it After 2018 season.
[El Niño disrupts and weakens Atlantic Hurricanes.]

The last main predictor is Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE]. Right now it is slightly lower that 2017. Good News!:thumbup:

What is a bit different, IMHO, is the birth places of Atlantic Storms.
1) West Africa
2) Caribbean
3) Eastern Pacific South of Mexico [Alberto]

Number 3 is rare, but crossing the Isthmus into the very warm SW Caribbean.
This looks to be a place to watch in 2018.;)
______
Time to get prepared is NOW and not 3 days before a strike.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Rufus should be hired by NOAA.
He predicted Alberto about 20 days in advance. Rufus was a bit surprised too.
He is a PNWest forecaster. High pressures from there push storms away from USA or minimize them.
Jim...
 
Jun 21, 2004
2,532
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
My philosophy on storm season predictions, regardless of the number of hurricanes forecasted; if you get hit, it’s a catastrophic year, if you don’t get hit it’s a great year! We shall see how it plays out this year, soon enough.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
What is a bit different, IMHO, is the birth places of Atlantic Storms.
1) West Africa
2) Caribbean
3) Eastern Pacific South of Mexico [Alberto]
3) Has the early activity
The first Hurricane "Aletta" of the season, is in the Pacific, with "Bud" forming up now. They are headed out to sea.;)

Thanks to a series of HIGH pressures, pulsing down from the Pacific North West [PNW] to the Gulf and S.East Atlantic these storms didn't "sneak" into the Caribbean.:)

At least early in this season...
Watch the East Pacific for quick storm development.

Jim...

PS: The African Sahara Winds are way South of normal and spinning up these storms.
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,995
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Jim. There is a low taking shape on the 14 of June of the Mexican coast. Is that the “Bud” you are tracking?
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,995
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
I see how the Northen Pacific High is blocking these equatorial lows from tracking north. Appears to squeeze them East towards Central America.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hurricane Bud is now heading north, perhaps helping the desert areas on Northern Mexico with some always welcome rain.

My Point...
These early season storm are tending to form Near the Isthmus of Panama.
These storm's trajectories will depend on the timing of HIGH pressures from the Pacific North West.

Characteristics of Storms so far...
1) Slow forming center [caused by upper wind disturbances] Note: Tougher to track
2) Quick moving once formed [normally doesn't allow much strengthening]
3) Can surprised us [ as opposed to West African births]

There is a point of interest now in SW Caribbean, but it should be "destroyed" by the HIGH's that recently left the PNW.

Check out your Hurricane Preparedness soon.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I read it differently. How about 65% chance of below normal?
Well Well Well!!!:biggrin:

Today the National Hurricane Center REVISED their forecast for the 2018 Season.
GRAPHIC -Numbers - Outlook Aug 9 update 2018 - NOAA.png.png


I have privately forecasted this year with friends and family who have seen Hurricane Damage. Mine was done at the start of season.

Thanks to @jssailem and his "Rufus" Pacific North West forecaster, my forecast being on target.

My post #1 is still the trend.

Note the change in MAJOR Atlantic season forecast change.:clap:

As of today the Atlantic has one point of interest, but it will fade away soon.
______
This is the key...

The African winds, which spin the Counter Clockwise start, are way South this year. Before they can get a good start, Equatorial Winds from South America are spinning Clock Wise.:kick:

Collision!

______
We still need to prepare our family and boats for the worst case.
Jim...
 
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Jun 2, 2004
3,390
Hunter 23.5 Fort Walton Yacht Club, Florida
The only storms that are significant for us have four letters and start with a vowel.

No such storm names on this years list so my prediction is a good year for us along the Northern Florida Gulf Coast