Hurricane Nate, TD 16

[JamesG161]

Formed fast and is moving fast.

It looks like a Northern Florida squall on ≈ 10/8/17

HIGH pressure front should move it NNE soon after Land Fall...

It is predicted to move fast [a good thing], but directly over the Cuba to Gulf hot water current Loop

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/rtofs/rtofs_current_gulf.html

So watch for intensity gains in next few days. Since that path is still not de-energized.
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Loop
Jim...

PS: Hopefully it won't get a Name.

 

[JamesG161]

Heat content loop by NOAA. Bad link above. Sorry
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/gohhp.gif

Jim...

 

[Roland5048]

Just looked at the "cone of uncertainty". Here we go, again. This looks just like the path Hermine took last year that put almost a foot of salt water in my house and as a Cat 1 was still two hundred miles away. At least Irma had the decency to stay east of us and push the water out. I'm beginning to think I should just put all my furniture and other stuff up and leave it there for the entire six months of hurricane season. ( I've actually done that ). As a life-long resident of living right on the coast this isn't my first rodeo but, this body is getting tired of riding this horse.

 

[JamesG161]

I post this for SBO to...
Prepare...

I saw this last Friday, didn't post here, but the Gulf has seen heavy East Winds for a week. That circulation finally rounded up a LOW.

So get you loss of power stuff soon. Stores will be empty.

@Roland5048 looks like you will be on the wind driven high tide side.
We are 1' higher since last Friday.

Hopefully this horse won't buck to much.
Jim...

 

[Gene Neill]

I'm treating this one as a Cat 1. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's just a TS.

 

[Roland5048]

We are 1' higher since last Friday.

The low tide here did not go out as much predicted even with the east wind. Preparations will be underway, soon.

 

[JamesG161]

First Hurricane Hunter flight through TD16 @22:25 UTC showed maximum 35 knot 10 second peak winds.

It is just off shore of Nicaragua which is disrupting the cyclonic formation.
No distinct eye wall.

The projected path is skimming Central America and Yucatan until Saturday when it will be over open Gulf waters. The HIGH over Colorado today will turn TD 16 NNE then, and hopefully kick its butt good.

The predictions are off the Gulf quickly so less intensification.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

The HIGH over Colorado today will turn TD 16 NNE then,

The High slowed and is looking like it will have little effect on TD 16 until it is over land.

Looks like it will move fast toward Mobile on 10/8-10/9.

The good news is there has been no Hurricane Hunter flights since the first one. They fly more often when more info it needed.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

Hurricane Hunter flight #2 17:49 UTC showed TS Nate surface winds at 19 knots 10 second peak.
[it was 35 knots]
Central pressure almost normal, no eye, little circulation.
The didn't even drop a Dropsonde bouy!!!

What the heck? Nate is not a Tropical Storm at the moment.

Nicaragua is messing Nate up?

Now we have a TD in Mexico Pacific and one low pressure storm over East Florida???

All being affected by this Eastward strong winds in the Gulf. It is 25 mph at my location now.

I am watching this with great interest. I bet that no "models" will be on target until Late Friday.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

Hurricane Hunters finally dropped a Dropsonde...
at 22:09 UTC
Surface winds 14 knots oh really now? Mid way down the drop 30 knots.

here is the link
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
go figure...
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

Crazy Nate...
Finally the computer model can track it best.
This is the Hurricane Hunters "in progress" data.

I would sail in the light blue. The so called "eye" is Light Blue near the Reds

BTW at this post time Nate has been declared Cat 2 just because of the Purple.

My boat is ready now...


Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

For real time data watch the Data Buoy KVOA...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KVOA

Note KVOA [yellow upper right ] on the Hurricane Hunters latest mission.

Quiz: Can you count the Storms "eyes"?

Notice the Zig Zag flight pattern trying to locate the eye. Purple wind arrows make it Cat 2.

I am now getting rains and 20 mph winds. My marina is empty except for one sick boat owner.
Tropical winds expected here at ≈6pm CDT.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

Purple wind arrows make it Cat 2.

Wow! Nate made my "mouse" move and made the "line through" above?
_____
For all the nearby buoys near Nate... look at all the Buoy real time Action here...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=29.229N&lon1=87.781W&uom=E&dist=250
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

All is good [for a Cat I] for most boats and people along the Nate Strike coast line.
My boat snoozed thru Nate.

Storm surge pushed water to the bottom of the Shore power boxes [ up 4'+tide]. Boxes switched off by Marina.

Bye bye Nate.


Jim...

 

[BigEasy]

Same here in South East LA, minimal effects from Nate. Water levels were already approximately 2 feet above normal since earlier in the week because of continuous ENE winds. Nate pushed levels approximately 2 more feet at Oak Harbor marina. With winds clocking out of West, water level is already down 2 feet. Ten minutes away at my home, winds were very light with minimal rainfall. I did see on the weather channel that a 35-40' sailboat washed up on the beach near Biloxi. May have been forced to anchor, because many of the marinas had a mandatory evacuation.

 

[JamesG161]

many of the marinas had a mandatory evacuation.

They all did in MS.
I asked why.
Basic answer: We are now absolved of Liability for damage and rescue.
Law: Maritime Safe Harbor request can't be denied.
_____
I wouldn't stay anyway. So I was curious.
_______

I did see on the weather channel that a 35-40' sailboat washed up on the beach near Biloxi.

Yeah and 3 people were aboard and rumored to have jumped ship, asked for USCG rescue...
The rest of the rumors were a bit doubtful...

Not bad for a Cat 1 storm, so to speak.

Glad you made it. Waiting for @kloudie1 @woodster and others to check in.
Jim...

 

[kloudie1]

All good here, Jim.. Looking at winds on the Causway Bascule bridge, never saw anything over 25-30 kts or so.. Water, as Big Easy says, went up a bit but was actually below the level on Tuesday that was just due to the other low and its winds ..

 

[woodster]

They all did in MS.
I asked why.
Basic answer: We are now absolved of Liability for damage and rescue.
Law: Maritime Safe Harbor request can't be denied.
_____
I wouldn't stay anyway. So I was curious.
_______

Yeah and 3 people were aboard and rumored to have jumped ship, asked for USCG rescue...
The rest of the rumors were a bit doubtful...

Not bad for a Cat 1 storm, so to speak.

Glad you made it. Waiting for @kloudie1 @woodster and others to check in.
Jim...

All good here went up the bayou and anchored out had minimal rain and wind gusts of 50 knots otherwise than that nothing to be sad or regretful for glad everyone is safe. Spending to night on the bayou again due to the rr bridge being Jam up hope to have in good repair monday