Invest 96L now Hurricane Maria

Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This storm is now being tracked and closer to landfall potential. Located about 5 days from the Lesser Antilles.

Invest 96L is tracking like Hurricane Don.
Jim...
 
Jan 26, 2008
60
Catalina 380 Long Beach, Ms
James, where do you keep your boat at, I am usually at the Pass harbor but not at the moment.
Russ
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
96L is probably going to go Tropical by Monday 18th and models show it beginning to the Mid Season Atlantic "curve" to the North West.

Steering winds are not favorable for a massive storm unless it Stalls out.
This will be next News Cycle storm.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Even though there area destructive winds opposing TS Maria, she became Tropical by Satellite data only.
______
The bad news..
There are two LOWs over central USA that appears to be timed such to draw TS Maria into them. If that happens Maria will make a slow North West Turn as she passes over the Islands.

The good news....
The steering winds are strong going EAST. Also the middle level winds still are opposing her and may kick her strength DOWN.

Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The national News cycle now has Maria in their news.

Listen for information on the Diameter of the Eye wall for the best info. The Category rating is Maximum sustained winds. I look at the Hurricane Hunters's data for Intensity information.

Prepare along East Coast now.
Jim..
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This is data taken from a Hurricane Hunter's mission earlier today and put into a very clear way to view winds.
It becomes obvious why NOT to take the Eye Wall HIT.[shown in RED]:yikes:

A storm's Category Rating is great for News hype, but Maria is Compact destructive compared to many bigger storms.

windfield.gif

Note the previous circle's Eye Walls.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
For you Course Model watchers, here is the GFS modeling prediction of Steering winds for Oct 1, 2017.

You can see why HIGH pressures are somewhat a shield to LOW pressure Hurricanes.

Can you visualize the Trough or path of least resistance?
Oc1Steer.jpg


Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hmmmm? I wonder why Maria will make a sudden Eastward turn soon?

sfcmap.gif


Timing of HIGH's is everything.
Jim...
 
Oct 1, 2007
1,858
Boston Whaler Super Sport Pt. Judith
Jim:
Please don't make this a quiz. Please tell us what you think is gonna happen:)
 
Jan 22, 2008
8,050
Beneteau 323 Annapolis MD
Hmmmm? I wonder why Maria will make a sudden Eastward turn soon?

Timing of HIGH's is everything.
Jim...
I try to plan mine for when I'm sailing :dancing:. Wed morning, I see it is finally turning east, lower than 73 latt..
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
On previous posts, I have posted a the Sea Temperature Anomaly picture which indicates the current surface temperature versus a long term average on Today's date. This is a basic view of Energy Content of water.

What caught my attention was the HUGE amount of energy Hurricane Maria removed from the Atlantic. We all agree just don't dump that energy on People.

Note the now BLUE or cooler path Maria took.
CycloneEnergy.jpg


We are now in the last month of 2017 season.
Sahara desert air is drying the African monsoon season air. Hopefully no more African birthed cyclones heading west. The path has be well de-energized by previous storms, cyclonic or not.

Bye bye... Maria.
Jim...