• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Atlantic Hurricane Forecast 2019

Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The National Hurricane Center has this forecast.
2019 Hurricane Numbers.png

This is lower than 2018 NHC mid year adjusted forecast!
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The East Pacific , Atlantic and Caribbean storm names.
2019 Hurricane Names - Strikethrough.png

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They have forecast more Hurricane Activity in the Eastern Pacific Ocean this year.
Hawaii is expecting more storms.

Get prepared early, so that if we get a quick storm from the Caribbean you can react quickly.

Jim...
 
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Likes: kloudie1
Jun 21, 2004
2,532
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
Glad to see the lower forecasted activity; however, as you well know, it only takes one to wreak havoc.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The Caribbean is warmer, the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic are cooler this year starting.
Some good news is the Vertical Wind Shear is higher than normal. [a good thing]
ts_al_car_VSHD.gif



Note: when VS [meters/second] is < ≈21, that defines the Hurricane Season.
Blue is this years Averages in the Caribbean, versus and defined Black curve average since 1980's.

Wind Shear

Note the Tropical Cyclone section, but it is very interesting in that Wiki link, since it is has been mentioned in several SBO discussions on Sailing weather, micro bursts etc.
Jim...