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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Dorian <-- TS<--TD 5 <-- Invest 99L

Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Using the cool distantance feature of Windy.com

Dorian is moving a 5 mph will impact station SPGF1 in the next 24 hours.

I hope that station survives after that.
 
Apr 16, 2017
632
Federation NCC-1701 Riverside
Ive been trying to follow this, but am not seeing through the fog of inside humor.

The storm is just east of the Grand Bahamas. What's to keep this storm from going over Lake Okeechobee, south over Ft Myers, and then up to Ft Walton?
 
Jun 4, 2009
3,238
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
Ive been trying to follow this, but am not seeing through the fog of inside humor.

The storm is just east of the Grand Bahamas. What's to keep this storm from going over Lake Okeechobee, south over Ft Myers, and then up to Ft Walton?
Highs, lows and fronts, to start with.
 
Apr 16, 2017
632
Federation NCC-1701 Riverside
Do you agree with the current assesment of the storm path, and whats keeping this from bleeding out down to Ft Myers.

I honestly dont know and am not messing with ya, but i havent heard anyone say why the model says its going north in a little bit.

My jedi senses suggest Ft Myers should get ready. What can you show to convince me otherwise.
 
Oct 22, 2014
10,210
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
Unfortunately, there is only one guarantees with the weather. It will change.

As of 5pm EDT here is the latest NOAA message about Dorian. This storm has confused the scientists watching the storm and trying to figure out what she will do.

It is a Hope for the best, prepare for the worst prescription. Listen to the guidance of your NOAA and local government.

1567393014657.png
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
There is much better information than we can predict from your local officials.
In truth...

FEMA is in control, since Florida declared a state of emergency.
______
My jedi senses suggest Ft Myers should get ready.
The Force is with you.
_______
Dorian is moving slowly. Why?
A Slow moving HIGH ridge just North of Dorian, is moving out of the way

You might notice the models show a ≈120° turn to go behind that HIGH as it passes.

That is the key.

When and where does Dorian turn North?
The models are slightly diverging at this moment, which means they are not forecasting that HIGH's movement the same.

The real bad news is the Northern Bahamas in the next 14 hours.

I have been in hurricanes at NIGHT and it is NOT easy thing to endure.

We will soon see the aftermath there.
______
Listen to what your locals officials say. Mandatory evacuations in some coastal areas.
Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Hurricane Hunters picture of Dorian Eye today.
EDbJcwgWkAMHzGI.jpeg
Very structured and intense winds at the wall. The most recent data show pressure is rising [a good thing]

That Eye wall is where all maximum winds are reported in the News
The next 16 hours should see the turn.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
The northern Bahamas are taking the HIT. Their shear terror of the last 24 hours has to be mind numbing.
_______
Why did Dorian just STOP?
1) The HIGH that was moving east, finally got out of the way. But...
2) A Gulf HIGH, due West, had clockwise circulations.o_O The combined effect of 1 and 2 =
3) Zero movement:oops:

No models even saw that happening. [amazing set of coincidences since the Antilles]
_____
What did that STOP do?
1) Storm pressure up
2) Winds down
3) Huge amounts of Solar Heat removed and dumping cooling rain.
4) Pushed Ocean up to 14 feet on the north side of Grand Bahama.

This is a NOAA station on the South side of the Grand Bahama.
NDBC - Station SPGF1 Recent Data
plot_wind_pres.php-6.png

Amazing difference.
______
What is Next for Dorian?
All of the key models are in agreement.
Dorian will start to move North very soon.

NOAA models are on target.
Listen to your local authorities.
Jim...

PS: News just reported 5 souls lost in the Bahamas.:pray:
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Amazing the info we get from the Hurricane Hunters on mission number 36 now.
The data is fed back to NOAA and models
This is kinda the MRI of Dorian right now.
MRI Dorian.jpg

A lot of info on this chart.

Note: Wind is flowing vertically from sea to sky. Also the sea rises up a bit at center.
Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Dorian on the move.
I bet is is not fun sailing in 50 knt sea states off Cape Canaveral now
Z63A_2019_09_04_1310.jpg


yeeee hawww..
Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Finalizing Dorian West Atlantic Ocean Impact.

Dorian Heat Removal.png


Can anyone see why the Bahama's took such a HIT?

The power of Solar Energy, stored in our Oceans.
Jim...
 
Last edited:
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Oct 26, 2010
781
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
Trying to understand the implications. Am I to hope that Dorian removed a lot of heat from the ocean in the area around the Bahama's and the USA Southeast Coast which might mean a reduction in the gain of Hurricane intensity or at least not delveloping increased intensity when and if one reaches the Bahama's again this season?
 
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Jun 4, 2009
3,238
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
You are implying that the Antilles Current (variable) and the Gulfstream (2.5 knot average) won't be replenishing that heat pretty quickly? I'm not sure I'd take that bet. lol
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
You are implying that the Antilles Current (variable) and the Gulfstream [won't be replenishing that heat]
Kind of.

Think diesel fuel tank level. The source of your Diesel Fuel is replenished from somewhere.
That Diesel Fuel Dock has a limited supply of Fuel for your tank. If you are way back in line, you may not get your tank replenished.
____
As the 2019 season is going Down Hill now, so is the Solar Energy Fuel input.

I have done a gross Energy calculation for a Big Storm, of just the energy removed from the Ocean and then condensed as rain falls [Evaporative Cooling].

The Energy Consumed is HUGE.
and the Energy replenishing by currents is very, very small in comparison.
_____
So my implication is, every storm, minor or major, sucks up the Fuel Big time.
_____
And fact, not implication.
The only Dominate Hurricane Fuel source we have for ALL Ocean Surface heat, including Temperature Driven Currents.

OUR SUN

Jim...

PS: For future winter time posts, there is minor increase of Ocean Heat from stellar cosmic radiation.
Note: Our Sun is now entering, for the first time in recorded History.. a Space Void.o_O
No bull, NOAA is measuring that increase, daily.:cool:
 
Last edited:
Oct 19, 2017
5,059
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
And fact, not implication.
The only fuel source we have for ALL Ocean heat, including currents.
I'm no expert, but I don't think that is entirely true. Gravity from the moon, sun and even other planets in our solar system along with the rotating Earth itself, causes tectonic movement that also generates heat beneath the ocean. Mid ocean ridges, the Polynesian Ring of Fire, other volcanic hot spots like the Hawaiian Isles may contribute to ocean warming such as El Nino. These hot spots can be cyclic and/or moving beneath the Earth's crust.
Certainly the major contributor to surface ocean temperatures is solar energy and the primary force in storm production, but it isn't the only source of heat.

-Will (Dragonfly)