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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Dorian <-- TS<--TD 5 <-- Invest 99L

Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
This was done by NOAA as a Red Alert or Future Hurricane by Wednesday Morning.

The tracking models by NOAA all seem to focus together, now. [some reliable other sources differ]

We are not sure how NOAA get intensification factors, since most NOAA models say Tropical Storm by Wednesday.

But time to focus on preparations for..

Antilles, the Caribbean Islands, and Florida.

Heed the warning for sure..
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
TS Dorian is slowly forming a swirl, and the wind speeds are observed solely by Satellite [ASCAT-B] passovers.

@capta may be in for a strong breeze by late Monday and report back here what occurs. Any preparations shared here would be welcome.
______
We normally don't disagree with NOAA in this forum, but we don't see a lot of agreement in forecasts.:rolleyes:

Examples on TS Dorian:
1) Dies quickly after passing the Antilles and going South of Puerto Rico.
2) Dies out passing over Santo Domingo.
3) Dies and reappear in center of Gulf of Mexico 4 days after deatho_O

Late Sunday the forecasts should line up.
Jim...
 
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Jun 4, 2009
3,238
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
According to the info I've got, the Bermuda high has shifted east which should allow Dorian to swing north, east of Fla or run into Fla should a front slide south in time. I see no shear at this point to break up Dorian and a steady movement to the west or north west should bring it into warmer and warmer water, never a good thing with a tropical cyclonic storm, even after it runs into the mountains of Santo Domingo.
But I haven't run any models. I've just been working off static pics and the N. ATLANTIC SURFACE MAP, so this is pretty much a guess.
 
Last edited:
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
This is 6 hours old but shows the Steering winds due WEST.
wg8dlm5-1.GIF


This is close 1) to the forecast in my post #2 above.

New forecast on those winds in a couple of hours.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
This is why Dorian is being broken up a bit, before the Antilles. Wind shear at the right altitudes.
wg8shr.GIF


but later gets a push.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Most key drivers and forecasts for TS Dorian are aligning and showing the same forecast at 06:00 UTC Aug 25.
However NOAA has NOT updated.

For a SBO exclusive hint...:shhh:
Look at the scenario 1) in my post#2 above
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
10,210
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
The latest update may help form your plans for the next couple of days.

145247_key_messages_sm.png


There are forces in play that might limit Dorian from progressing beyond the Lesser Antilles. State tuned as they say..

Here is the most recent 5 day wind forecast for Dorian's path.
145247.png


It is the Season and Dorian is in play.

Check with NOAA Hurricane center for the official information regarding storm events.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Well the Hurricane Hunters are flying over the Greater Antilles now. Nothing much to see yet.

They are the REAL Time data guys. So far only satellite info.

BTW: The forecast models are diverging again.:doh:

One reason, as quoted by a very reliable source...

"Dorian is a tiny storm running into Dry Air"

Lets hope it stays that way...
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
recon_AF300-0405A-DORIAN.png

Not a big storm, no eye, wind speeds on surface Gusting to 37 knots on the island under their plane.
Jim...
 
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Oct 22, 2014
10,210
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
Morning Weather forecasted for Barbados as the storm crosses the Island.

TUESDAY12am
1am
2am
3am
4am
5am
6am
7am
ForecastRainRainCloudyRainRainRainRainCloudy
Temp (°F)81°81°80°81°81°81°81°82°
RealFeel®82°78°81°77°77°77°77°85°
Wind (mph)26 S32 S36 S39 S41 S45 S46 SSE34 SE
PRECIP12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am
Rain
60%

66%

49%

66%

81%

81%

81%

40%
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Highest winds in those Airports overnight ... 38 MPH

Looked more like steady winds at both ≈22 MPH

So far, TS Dorian peak winds per HH's Dropsonde data is 50 Knots on the NE quadrant. Most are like the Airport's data.

______
Tracking model are almost the same this morning.
However the West Coast of Florida will see some effects by Saturday 31st.

Still time to prepare for all you landlubber supplies and boat.
Jim...
 
Aug 9, 2011
1,046
Beneteau 310 Cheney KS (Wichita)
So, our next hurdle will be flight into Miami on Sat and out on Sunday!
 

Brian D

Moderator
Feb 17, 2006
4,531
Lancer 27PS MCB Camp Pendleton KF6BL
This is a minor thing. (anyone who understand music theory will get the gist of this)