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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Dorian <-- TS<--TD 5 <-- Invest 99L

Jun 4, 2009
3,238
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
Well, it seems the hot water and a slight jog to the north might to allow Dorian to waltz into Fla as a high cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane. I wonder if mother nature has a spread sheet that she keeps a tally on, listed; "got 'em this time" or "they got it right this time"? lol
 
  • Like
Likes: jssailem
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
It is always Timing of weather fronts.

Normally...

High Pressure systems move East at 10-15 mph.
Lows from Africa move West at 10-12 mph.

______
TS Dorian was Whacked by Drier Air and slowed down passing the Antilles.
It is following the LOW trough that is now TD 6
____
The curve ball that has USA Atlantic Coast now being targeted, is principally caused by the timing of a HIGH.
That HIGH is centered over Kansas and Missouri moving East.
______
TS Dorian is turning. Only a very small part of the storm on the East side is showing wind strength.
_____
The reliable models are now in disagreement again.

Jim...

PS: How did you fair so far @capta ?
 
Jun 4, 2009
3,238
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
PS: How did you fair so far @capta ?
Skipping Stone is on the hard in Trinidad with hurricane tie downs. We're up in the States getting a bit of a tune up under the hood, so to speak. I'm doing my forecasting from an old house built around 1870 in RI without many worries.
However, from experience, I'm guessing the swell/surge in the Grenadines and Grenada probably took out some of the smaller dinghy docks, etc. Back to beach landings for a few months, I guess.
 
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Likes: JamesG161
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
The Hurricane Hunters just got Dorian to hurricane status.

Good news...
It missed Puerto Rico with significant winds.:)

Bad news...
Virgin Islands a getting 45 kt winds now and it is heading out to heated waters.:(
_______
The models are scaring people on Facebook now.:banghead:

What you see is NOAA on TV

We will normally not leave anymore updates and let the News scare people.
______
This Longwave IR that show basically heat reflected off the clouds by Satellite .
Thicker clouds reflect more IR.
DorianIR.jpeg


The Black part is near the Center.
________
It is always Timing of weather fronts.

Normally...

High Pressure systems move East at 10-15 mph.
Lows from Africa move West at 10-12 mph.
This shows
Highs.jpeg

The race is on for those HIGHs over OK, MO, KY.
The one over KY will push TS Erin off the coast.

Here is where Models are conflicting...
Does Dorian follow behind the MO HIGH as it moves East, or get pushed further south and enter the Gulf?

Dammit Jim...

PS: The splotches on the last picture show Temperature Anomaly that is basically Heat Content.
 
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Likes: Will Gilmore
Aug 9, 2011
1,046
Beneteau 310 Cheney KS (Wichita)
Attachments not showing up, SBO gives it an "Oops..."
All good.

That High is right on top of us. Local guys are saying change (rain) coming Friday/Sat here so the High moves on. Hope it picks up some steam and gets easterly faster!
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Hope it picks up some steam and gets easterly faster!
As of my last look, they are:clap:

The models are converging again.

At my post #28, they had the path hitting me, near New Orleans.:yikes:
_____
I can't emphasize this enough...

PREPARE NOW...

Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Which model is correct?
05L_intensity_latest.png

The SHIP model is a "Trajectory" model, like a cannon shot.
Do you really believe HWFI?

These are only guessing, at best 72 hours.
_____
If we were adding to the Guessing method, we would say from the best models we see..

CEM2

But that is big GUESS.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,028
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
We still have 2 days to help dampen some of the media hype.
Here is a Data Bouy that is the storm's path. Watch it for real time data.
NDBC - Station 41046 Recent Data

and here is the current data plot...
plot_wind_pres.php-3.png


Note Air Pressure dropping now.

Also a curious two plane flight at very low levels by the Hurricane Hunters is happening now.
I will speculate as to why, they are looking at the source of future storm food...
Jim....

Jim...
 
Mar 20, 2014
675
Hunter 31 Shoreacres, TX
Jim,

Any thoughts on if this thing will cut across Florida into the Gulf and power back up?