Part of the LOWs that developed along the late season Tropical waves.
This one formed as a HIGH passed leaving a trough behind it.
Hopefully it will move fast across the Gulf before gaining any strength.
Last Seasons "Michael" had a small strong spot on the North East Quadrant that did a lot...
This late season disturbance should be watched closely.
The early projections have Invest 95L entering the area of major Tropical Cyclone HEAT.
There are 2 other potentials on NOAA map, but they are showing model paths in Cooler waters.
NOAA is watching a LOW area off Florida East Coast.
It appears to have been hatched by a Passing HIGH and the Land resistance to the subsequent falling HIGH.
It is kinda trapped and should make for a challenging Sail Along the East Coast all week.
Not sure how NOAA will name this disturbance...
This West Pacific Storm is passing north of Guam and targeting Japan.
New term of Category 5+ as Super.
This not in the purview of NOAA, but the US Navy meteorological group which has it headquarters near me.
NASA Space Center.
Hagibis is expected to decrease in strength as it approaches...
The Pacific HIGH continues to spin off Protective HIGHs and the Jet Steam Dips south...
1) Record High Temperature in Atlanta and other spots
2) Blizzard of wet snow in Montana.
It looks like these HIGHs will continue to Protect the Eastern USA well into Mid October.
TS Karen popped up over night in an area of high Heat content.
Karen's arrival spot is not good.
Of the multitude of activity in Late September...
should be considered a Wild course one.
TVCN is a 3 component model who has a good tracking within 72 hours [± 25 nm] Grey Triangle ∆...
We have been monitoring this minor disturbance and even when it was an INVEST we didn't think it was noteworthy.
This morning gusting to 25 knots and taking some heat off the Gulf of Mexico.
Now it has a name.:eek:
Going ashore in Texas now.
A Quick moving rain event.
Tracking as of yesterday, a small disturbance north of Santo Domingo.
Forming over the islands.
It looks to be a gusty rain event that is moving fast to the North West.
Right now it appears to move over the Northern Gulf and go overland on Sunday 15th.
NOAA beginning to track an small disturbance off West Africa. This is a West moving disturbance.
Two of the reliable models are conflicting on what happens by Sept 11.
There is very little wind shear to slow down its formation.
We will see more by Sunday.
This was done by NOAA as a Red Alert or Future Hurricane by Wednesday Morning.
The tracking models by NOAA all seem to focus together, now. [some reliable other sources differ]
We are not sure how NOAA get intensification factors, since most NOAA models say Tropical Storm by Wednesday.
This disturbance is being tracked, but several models and sources we watch are not in harmony.
Safety is top priority.
It appears to "Die" out as it skims the top of South America.
At this point it appear NOT to strengthen much by either preferred models.
Check back on Sunday for a...
A disturbance near South Florida and the Bahamas has kicked in tracking models.
The windy part is on the South East Quarter and out in the Atlantic.
This appears the be acting like Tropical Depression Chantel. It should bring some Rain and minor winds to Florida until Sunday.
Then move away...