• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Invest 99L

Feb 14, 2014
5,708
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This disturbance is being tracked, but several models and sources we watch are not in harmony.

But...

Safety is top priority.

It appears to "Die" out as it skims the top of South America.

At this point it appear NOT to strengthen much by either preferred models.

Check back on Sunday for a better forecast.
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
16,109
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
Funny you should ask @JRacer, Jim and I were discussing the confusion this morning. Weather in St George is forecast as typical for this time of year. Temps in the low 80's with trade winds out of the east in the 10-13 range. With so little excitement occurring in the Atlantic the folks at NOAA need to earn their pay. Should be more info developed over the weekend and maybe then there will be an outlook announced.
 
Feb 14, 2014
5,708
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
NOAA need to earn their pay
Well earned for sure.

There are a lot of new local forecasting stuff added by NOAA, for recreational boaters this year.

But here is the key to weak forecasting that Area of the Atlantic.

Mainly Satellite Intelligence.

Great Circle Navigation from West Africa area would not pass through that area. Essentially cargo ships from South Africa.


Less info, less accurate forecasts.
Jim...
 
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