• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

TS Nestor <-- PTC 16 <-- Invest 96L

Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Part of the LOWs that developed along the late season Tropical waves.
This one formed as a HIGH passed leaving a trough behind it.

Hopefully it will move fast across the Gulf before gaining any strength.

Last Seasons "Michael" had a small strong spot on the North East Quadrant that did a lot of damage.

The Next 48 hours will be key.
Dammit Jim...
 

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Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 is forming and moving Quickly.

As is expected the 2 major Models are differing, since the storm is broad and smeared across North Central Gulf.

By the time they are matching, the storm will almost be out of the Gulf.

The 1st Hurricane Hunters mission is exploring it now.

This as a data buoy a bit south of the Storm but showing drop in Barometric Pressure.
NDBC - Station 42055 Recent Data

Top winds recorded by both sources about 24 knots.

Keep and Eye on this since Tropical storm warnings are now out for LA, MS, AL and FL.
Dammit Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,098
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Thank you for keeping your eyes out and watching this storms development.

Looks to be a quick forming and potentially erratic directed storm.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This disturbance is combining with a LOW over Central TEXAS and the LOW in the Gulf.
Actually the Texas LOW will dominate and make it more NON-TROPICAL Cyclone.

When they combine, it will appear like PTC 16 suddenly JUMPS to just south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

This will happen Late Friday Afternoon.

Meanwhile, the huge North East part is sucking up Gulf Heat for a lot of rain, no so much winds.

Since the Gulf States have had a dry October, flash flooding will be reduced, but storm surge should be the focus.
_______
This is the kinda of storm that would catch many sailors by surprise.

One indicator, tried and true...

"Red Sky in the morning is a Sailors Warning"

Dammit Jim...

PS: Storm Surge warning

Surge.jpeg
 
May 24, 2004
7,131
CC 30 South Florida
The risk for flash flooding is being assessed at 5%. The Area of Florida under warning North of the Anclote River up to the Big Bend is notoriously shallow and regularly prone to surge warnings. Looks like the wind field of Nestor is small and although of concern for the point of land fall and immediate vicinity it will be just be a soaker for the rest of the Southeast and God knows we need the rain. Being on the East side of the storm we will get most of the foul weather and of most concern is the spinning of some Tornadoes. It's 4:00PM and I'm sitting in Tampa with no rainfall, calm winds and a low tide.
 

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May 24, 2004
7,131
CC 30 South Florida
11:30 PM, Riverview, FL we have had 2 tornadoes develop so far, one in Pinellas County which damaged some mobile homes and the 2nd in a Rural part of Hillsborough County. Tornadoes in Florida are small covering 100 yds or so with a duration of around 15 minutes but can pack winds of 100 MPH. Other than some rain showers and heavy thunderstorms to our North we have not yet seen lightning nor winds.