• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Invest 95L

Feb 14, 2014
5,711
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This late season disturbance should be watched closely.

storm_95.gif


The early projections have Invest 95L entering the area of major Tropical Cyclone HEAT.
ohc_naQG3_ddc-3.gif


_____
There are 2 other potentials on NOAA map, but they are showing model paths in Cooler waters.

Jim...
 
May 24, 2004
6,794
CC 30 South Florida
It is forcasted to rapidly weaken and dissipate due to wind shear and dry air at the mid levels. Primary threat as a Tropical Storm is to the Cape Verde Islands quite far away from us.
 
Feb 14, 2014
5,711
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
It is forcasted to rapidly weaken and dissipate due to wind shear and dry air at the mid levels.
Well no so fast.
You should look at the LOWs over the Isthmus now, combining with Invest 95L late this week.
Their combo is in a bad spot.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
5,711
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
72 hour NHC surface forecast.
atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

Note the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough.
Note the ITCZ has moved north and will help make those waves stronger.

That has my attention for Invest 95L.

Jim....
 
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