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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Humberto <--PTC 9 <--Invest 95L

Feb 14, 2014
4,021
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Tracking as of yesterday, a small disturbance north of Santo Domingo.
Forming over the islands.

It looks to be a gusty rain event that is moving fast to the North West.

Right now it appears to move over the Northern Gulf and go overland on Sunday 15th.
Jim...
 
May 24, 2004
5,884
CC 30 South Florida
It will be a rain event for Florida but with a 40% to 60% chance of intensifying once it enters the Gulf of Mexico it bears close watching.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,021
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
This the current tracking models.
95L_tracks_latest.png

Both @jssailem and I have noted that model tagged

TVCN

has been on target in the 72-96 hour forecasting. Grey circles on that chart.;)
Jim...

PS: The forecast hours are noted under the dots.
 
Last edited:
Jan 11, 2014
4,155
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
That lowers the Heat in the Gulf and makes your tomatoes grow bigger.
Jim...
But if the rain is too much too fast the tomatoes grow too fast and the skin splits open. Gotta eat them quickly.
 
May 24, 2004
5,884
CC 30 South Florida
There is not a defined center for this disturbance, that makes the tracking models lines less dependable. It will enter Florida or skip to the west of it, there is no escaping a good soaking, but the real concern will begin when it enters the Gulf waters. Were it to continue on a westerly track it would have plenty of fuel and time to organize and strengthen. The sooner it may curl to the North the lesser the strength.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,021
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Note the Caption on top, "Do not use to make decisions seek official info"
Please note the same for @jssailem and me. We will stick our necks out a bit, and pass on the reasons why.

But...

We will stop posting, the minute the "news cycle" is pounding it in your heads.
______
The reason we pick most of our graphics by...

Levi Cowan - Tropicaltidbits.com

he is the Best, we have found, for clear information on forecasting. Levi always does a preliminary statement...
"These are my opinions alone, seek official government forecasts." [Disclosure]
____________

There is not a defined center for this disturbance, that makes the tracking models lines less dependable
Well that is up to you.

But...

There are many tracking models that are "fee paid models". Those paid services are NOT used by NOAA, officially.
In another future post, for SBO users, John and Jim will point out the Best forecasting models.

Example: One paid model, has 50+ combined model components with their forecasting algorithms, daily adjusted, to always be improving. Also, new data inputs are being added as I type this.
____
The challenge for 95L is to follow model TVCN for yourselves.:cool::beer::beer::hook2:

Jim...

PS:
tomatoes grow too fast and the skin splits open
Cut off the spits and put juicy remainder on an BLT.:pimp:
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,021
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 satellite pictures are showing the classic CCW swirl.

There is a East moving HIGH over TN & KY that will determine the path, since this LOW will follow behind it.

Regardless, PTC9 will bring a lot of rain.
PTC9.jpeg

Broad Center = Broad Swath = Broad Tracking
Jim...
 
May 17, 2004
1,945
Beneteau Oceanis 37 LE Havre de Grace
There is a East moving HIGH over TN & KY that will determine the path, since this LOW will follow behind it.
So is it the correct interpretation that if the high slows down, it will spend more time steering the storm south and west, before it escapes out to the east?
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,021
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
steering the storm south and west, before it escapes out to the east?
Yes, West
This time of year, those HIGHs are normally due East, moving 12-15 mph. [ vs Spring moving SE]
Southern movement is not expected, but it could cause a slowing or stall from going more North.
____
The HH's just flew an observation mission. They flew an area North West of the PTC 9.

Want to guess why there?

Jim...

PS: Most of the Rain is on the North part of the storm.
 
Last edited:
Feb 14, 2014
4,021
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
That HIGH in post #12 really did the trick on timing for Florida and a big rain event for the Bahamas.

The curve is on, just as it was starting to circulate.:clap:

More Heat taken out of a sensitive area.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,021
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
TS Humberto is following that first HIGH and then gets pushed by the subsequent HIGH.

Just like Ocean waves, there is a LOW valley between two wave HIGH peaks.
_____
Bermuda appears to be the only land in its potential path.

If you are sailing to Bermuda. Follow and stay in the HIGH's.
Most Sailors know...

Fair weather is barometer rising.:)

Jim...
 
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May 17, 2004
1,945
Beneteau Oceanis 37 LE Havre de Grace
Hmmm?

Sailors stood a 4 hour watch and marked the barometer.

Tell us more about nature's "head fake" or First rise....
Jim...
Thought I had read that in Eric Sloane's Weather Book when I was a kid, although I can't find exactly that saying now. From what I remember, it was about the winds switching a restarting after the center of low pressure /circulation first passes.
 
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May 17, 2004
1,945
Beneteau Oceanis 37 LE Havre de Grace
Found it in an 1864 manual for Naval Cadets - A Manual for Naval Cadets

"The most dangerous shifts of wind, and the heaviest Northerly gales, happen after the Mercury rises from a very low point."

Guess that makes sense in the Northern Hemisphere, that after the low passes the wind switches from the north, and can blow hard between the passed low and next oncoming high.