Megayacht Bayesian sank
- Thread starter JoeWhite
- Start date
So did people seek shelter? I'm not sure what constitutes shelter on Key West. But if they were land tornados people would generally be going to strongest part of a building.
Surprisingly, no one seemed concerned…must be routine down there. They weren’t close; however, I did keep a close watch until they dissipated!
There have been a few You-Tube videos that speculate the design of the boat may have contributed to this tragedy. The Bayesian apparently had a retractable keel. With such a tall mast, if the keel was up, the boat’s center of gravity would have been relatively high, and a knock down may have been exacerbated by other unique design features. All speculation at this point. We’ll see what the investigation determines.
Wow! After surviving incidents in the surf, I never turn my back or take the ocean for granted. We sail out of Marina Del Rey, so generally there are no weather surprises. We do occasionally get possible water spout warnings, which keeps us from sailing.
Our dockmaster, a native of Italy, said something was screwy with this boat sinking, because of the tech billionaire who was recently acquitted of fraud, and his attorney both being among the missing. I scoffed and said we are nothing compared to the ocean. Then I read about the co-defendent, Stephan Chamberlain, who was killed while jogging in England on Saturday. Then on Monday the Bayesian is sunk by a waterspout. Sounds like of like a Stephen King Movie! The defendant, and then the co-defendant and the attorney killed in separate freak accidents within days of each other!!! What are the chances?
Our dockmaster, a native of Italy, said something was screwy with this boat sinking, because of the tech billionaire who was recently acquitted of fraud, and his attorney both being among the missing. I scoffed and said we are nothing compared to the ocean. Then I read about the co-defendent, Stephan Chamberlain, who was killed while jogging in England on Saturday. Then on Monday the Bayesian is sunk by a waterspout. Sounds like of like a Stephen King Movie! The defendant, and then the co-defendant and the attorney killed in separate freak accidents within days of each other!!! What are the chances?
For some authoritative analysis of the sinking, see the linked article. The excerpts are from noted Naval Architects. The core issue was the inherent lack of stability with the keel lifted. The wind came, laid the boat over and it down flooded.
loosecannon.substack.com
Yacht Design Experts Dissect How an 'Act of God' Sank Bayesian
Chris Freer, Tad Roberts, Roger Long
The sinking is a real tragedy.. the downflooding must have been terrifying with the speed of the sinking..
Good info.. Roger Long used to be a frequent poster on this forum .. he's since gone over to a trawler..
Roger is a great guy.. My wife and I were visiting Portland Maine a few years ago and Roger took us day sailing all around Casco bay..
Good info.. Roger Long used to be a frequent poster on this forum .. he's since gone over to a trawler..
Roger is a great guy.. My wife and I were visiting Portland Maine a few years ago and Roger took us day sailing all around Casco bay..
I agree that the likely cause of the sinking was down-flooding. I know of a Capris 25 and sunk in the PNW in 18-seconds when it broached in a big breeze with the spinnaker set. They were sailing in sporty conditions with the companionway hatch open.
If the crew would have closed the big openings as the storm approached, this would likely have just been a great "Sea Story" instead of a tragedy.
If the crew would have closed the big openings as the storm approached, this would likely have just been a great "Sea Story" instead of a tragedy.
As with many tragedies of this sort, there are multiple causes. The consensus among the NAs is the stability curves would have predicted this kind of scenario. A boat designed with a safer stability curve would not have heeled over as far reducing the chance of down flooding. At least one report indicated the crew was on deck preparing the boat for the forecast wind. So, it was a combination of poor designed stability and a freak weather occurrence.
If you want to know more about stability and capsizing, the Loose Cannon Substack has a series by Roger Long, an SBO member and NA, about the sinking of Pride of Baltimore I and the stability issues. An interesting and informative read.
Some more informed information about the Bayesian sinking.
loosecannon.substack.com
'100,000 Pounds of Water in 30 Seconds,' Says Naval Architect, Looking at Bayesian Stability Data
Tad Roberts Also Calls Amount of Ballast Insufficient, 'Ridiculous'
Takes me back to my Naval Architect courses in Annapolis a lifetime ago. Tks for sharing.
I was also thinking the hull got punctured, but first I asked myself how much anchor rode they had out. Do the math on 7 or better for a storm 10+ to one at that depth. If they dragged anchor, got broadside to a big wave and the mast broke at the deck level tearing a lot of deck and she went over, she would not come back up most likely. When they get her up I suspect they will see very quickly what happened and why. My guess is some of the divers already saw some likely stuff and were told to zip it.
The BBC has reported the Bayesian is lying on its side and is largely intact.
In an earlier post I shared a link to a report strongly suggesting the where issues with vessel stability and it was not capable of righting itself in the conditions it faced, in part due to the lifting keel, which was lifted. The commenters in the article were all Naval Architects and familiar with super yacht design.
The proximal cause was likely a waterspout, followed by a yacht design based on the owner's ego and need to have the largest sailing vessel with the tallest mast and the compromises that come with such a design.
Sicily yacht divers find five bodies in wreck of the Bayesian - BBC News
The grim discoveries come two days after the Bayesian sank in a freak storm off Sicily.
www.bbc.com
If my physics is not failing me, you can only gain roll stability by lowering a centerboard or lowering a lifting keel. Why in the world would they have had it raised? Hardly a shallow water issue in that bay.
Apparently when raised the keel rattled in the trunk and kept passengers awake. Sounds like it was common practice to keep it up at anchor for that reason.
According to a previous capt. of that vessel they were doing everything "by-the-book". The book being a "Stability Information Book" delivered with the vessel.
So, it was mandatory he swing keel be deployed when using sails or more than 60 miles offshore but not required when at anchor as the internal ballast was deemed adequate.
Apparently the yacht had large sliding doors that would slide open when boat was heeled if not dogged (ie locked) by pins, which were never dogged at anchor as that complicated egress and ingress for the guests.
So if it went far enough over and those slid open, plus open vent ducts for h/vac and generators etc....
So, it was mandatory he swing keel be deployed when using sails or more than 60 miles offshore but not required when at anchor as the internal ballast was deemed adequate.
Apparently the yacht had large sliding doors that would slide open when boat was heeled if not dogged (ie locked) by pins, which were never dogged at anchor as that complicated egress and ingress for the guests.
So if it went far enough over and those slid open, plus open vent ducts for h/vac and generators etc....
The reports I have seen say that the rig is intact. The reported loss of the mast was contradicted by the divers.
In the stability report I read today, there is very little change in the righting moment with the keel down. It has minimal weight in the keel and is primarily for preventing leeway.