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Greta Thunberg sails back to Europe on La Vagabonde

Feb 14, 2014
4,209
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
[ quote from Nikki FB post]
After a speedy day averaging 10 knots straight towards Lisbon, it’s been a slow night..[:stir:]
...which combined with a over from the wind we had today - makes for a relatively sluggish and noisy time - noisy due to the slapping of the sails from side to side in the swell. The sailors among you will I’m sure remember the sound well
No noise with in mast furling...:pimp:

Now they are planning for the slow ride ahead... :eek:;):biggrin:

8 Bottles of Beer on the wall...:stir:
Jim...
 
May 17, 2004
2,099
Beneteau Oceanis 37 LE Havre de Grace
Here's today's look at the OpenCPN routing guidance:
1574909732645.png


Need to travel north a bit more so that the home stretch will be a reach rather than a beat. The wind speeds for that last leg seem to differ between the GFS and Predict Wind's proprietary ECMWF based model. GFS seems to have much stronger winds in that section, closer to 30 vs low teens for PredictWind. We'll see how that plays out. The overall route is about the same, it adds a couple days of variation in the arrival times. Their current position is pretty much right on where last night's route projected it to be.

By way of comparison between this West-East out-of-season passage and one in a more conventional time - Here is a Windy route for Ryan and Sophie, who are currently en-route between the Canaries and Cape Verde, before heading west to the Caribbean: Windy as forecasted. Looks like a cake walk by comparison - no gale conditions, routing around giant Lows, winds on the nose, etc. Not to take anything away from their passage, which I'm sure has many of its own challenges, but it does show why there are standard times of year and routes to take for these kinds of trips.
 
Mar 3, 2003
684
Hunter 356 Grand Rivers
They are humming along right on the great circle route. A week ago, I predicted Dec 2 if they didn’t stop in the Azores and that still looks good to me. They are 895 NM away now. This has been an enjoyable thread and I’ve learned a lot - particularly on things about Windy that I didn’t know were in the app.
 
May 17, 2004
2,099
Beneteau Oceanis 37 LE Havre de Grace
Today's update -
1574985255335.png


GFS Grib in OpenCPN still has them arriving on the 3rd. The yellow line is last night's prediction, and so far they've been tracking pretty close to that. Tonight's route brings them not quite as far north before reaching home to the south east. GFS still has some exciting winds on that last leg, up to 30 sustained on the beam, so we'll see if they keep their speed up in those conditions.
 
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Likes: jon hansen
Oct 22, 2014
10,822
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
GFS still has some exciting winds on that last leg, up to 30 sustained on the beam, so we'll see if they keep their speed up in those conditions.
Not only the wind on the beam but also the waves. That might be an uncomfortable ride for the last couple of days. I wondered about them venturing so far north of the Great Circle route. I am guessing it was to stay in the breeze and not get caught up in the calm weather that was forecast in the area north of the Azores.

This is always and anxious period for me on my sailings. The excitement of getting close to land.
 
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Likes: jon hansen
May 17, 2004
2,099
Beneteau Oceanis 37 LE Havre de Grace
Getting close to the home stretch now -
1575084564579.png


They're just a few miles below last night's predicted route, though they're still heading NNE, compared to tonight's predicted route that starts turning ESE. Less than 700 miles to go. The race now is to get in before light winds set in, maybe sometime late on the 3rd. We'll see how quickly they can reach down in stronger winds before that happens. Certainly seems like they're moving faster now than earlier in the trip, probably as they're gaining confidence, getting closer to safety, and not battling big seas.

What direction are the currents in that segment? That would make a huge dif in sea state and SOG.
Quick Google search doesn't seem to show any significant currents around there; certainly nothing as notable as the Gulf Stream. Some references suggest there might be a slight southbound current, which shouldn't hurt them.

They did post on Facebook that it's "Still a little early to give a prediction of arrival into Lisbon. Somewhere between Monday and Friday? Your guess is as good as mine. What day do you think?" @JamesG161 I might point out that "Somewhere between Monday and Friday" is all before the 9th. :poke:
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,209
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
I might point out that "Somewhere between Monday and Friday" is all before the 9th.
Their bearing is still heading to France for the last 2 days.:laugh:

What do I think?
Diesel, Diesel and more Diesel.
Not enough Sun shine to make fresh water, but maybe the have a wind charger.
Jim...

PS: I wonder what levels are in their hold tanks?
 
Mar 3, 2003
684
Hunter 356 Grand Rivers
As of 11:15 CST, they have averaged 9.46 K over the last 30 hours and I don’t see them slowing down. There is a lull behind them potentially, but I think they can stay with the wind they have. Wind speeds are in the low to mid 20s on a broad to beam reach with mid 30 gusts. Wave forecasts are what they are currently seeing and have for most of the trip. I think they have about 66.75 hours to go +/-, so Lisbon Late on the 2nd CST - early Dec 3 GMT.
Windy shows currents favorable from 0 to .1 k from 290 to 300 for remainder of the trip.
They have managed this crossing exceptionally well.
 
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Likes: jon hansen
Oct 22, 2014
10,822
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
I find it a fun exercise to try and calculate a route involving weather and see it played out over time. It is more than a theoretical exercise.

We have explored several passage tools such as Windy, and OpenCPN. If just one boat owner is more aware of the aspects of weather and planning a cruise it is worth it.

Everyone will see the event through their own colored glasses. Time will tell, but I suspect the 16 year old will talk about the experience as proof that her thinking is valid. We need to return to the power of the wind and stop the terrible outcomes from human actions to industrialize the world. After all she can point to the experience as proof.

But is it proof of concept or did she benefit from carbon pollution that provided the means for her to be given an opportunity to ride a million dollar boat across an ocean.
 
Oct 1, 2007
1,411
Hunter 44DS Pt. Judith
I consider her at her words. "I am not a Celebrity." And I interpret this as she is not looking for fans.
She asks at the UN Ecology Conference, "listen to the scientists".

I ask "does that mean only the scientists who she agrees with - That cause her to say "climate change is an "existential crisis".

What concerns me is that the scientists she recognizes state the term "climate change" is the same as "global warming". Should we then ignore the scientists that are exploring the cooling of the planet and are examining the data associated with this change in climate?

Is the science decided? No need to further the exploration!
I am not at that decision yet. I think there is still more to consider before we decide to radically change the economic paradigm of the world. Perhaps a 16 year old knows best. Perhaps not. That does not diminish her voice.
She is earning a living. Not sure her husband/partner has a job.... Somebody has to bring home the bacon...err, or tabouleh as appropriate...
 

Brian D

Moderator
Feb 17, 2006
4,612
Lancer 27PS MCB Camp Pendleton KF6BL
It is about her voyage back to the old world. More so about the boat and the crew and how they are using the wind and other factors on how to reach landfall. She just happens to be onboard as extra keel weight.