We know the same thing about influenza and yet we don't expect the same restrictions. We know that fresh air and sunlight is beneficial to our immunity, yet our open spaces are now restricted. I am very curious to know if the overall numbers of death have risen and COVID has caused an overall increase in morbidity or if overall morbidity has not spiked appreciably. Those would be some statistics that could be very useful to know. Age and poor health is such a contributing factor. It may be callous to say so, but how far do we have to go to protect the aged and the unhealthy when the statistics may show no overall increase in morbidity among that demographic? I wonder if the statistics can be known yet. I agree that we can't deliberately behave in ways that jeopardize a vulnerable demographic, but is it sane to expect that I can't go to work because there are people in this world that are more vulnerable to illness than others?
First, don't think of this a not being able to go to work. Think of it as practice retirement.
Flu is a little different. The time between being contagious and knowing you're ill is pretty short, like a day. That inherently limits the spread. With C-19 the latency period, or time between being infected and no longer being contagious is really long, as much as 14 days. And, some people are asymptomatic and others have such mild symptoms they never notice. This exponentially increases the risk of transmission. There some treatments for flu that work and there are vaccines, again these mitigate the risks.
Part of the issue is vulnerable people, mostly older or with underlying health conditions. While it is tempting to simply suggest they are old and infirm and will die soon any way, that is a very slippery slope that we as society do not want to go down. There is an additional issue and the one the NYC Metro area is dealing with, overloaded hospitals. If the ICUs are full of C-19 patients and someone needs an ICU bed because of a heart attack, car accident or some other reason, that person is denied a bed because there isn't one. Over burdened hospitals is a huge problem in some areas.
The question of increased morbidity has to be placed in a time context. A large nursing home might lose 55 patients in a year, there was one nursing home that lost the 55 in a day. Our institutions, funeral homes, crematoria, cemeteries are simply not capable of handling the rapid increase in deaths, just as hospital are not capable of dealing with high numbers of ICU patients.
Then there is another level of social stress. The uncertainties associated with the virus, how to contain it, how long will it be, can we find an effective treatment, finding a vaccine, what will post pandemic life look like? What if the virus mutates and becomes more virulent or lethal? These issues are taking a toll. I spent 3 hours this morning with teachers listening to the struggles of families at home with their children all day. A lot of those families were high risk families to start with, the pandemic is doing little to ease their stress.
There is economic risk to extending the social distancing rules, however, I and many others believe the risk of a premature end to those rules is much greater, both socially and economically.