There is one simple over riding lesson we should all learn from this virus, we are all more connected and dependent upon one another than we have often chosen to believe. What one person does really can affect another's well being. Let us all act in accordance with those thoughts.
Think we're going to see a surge in first-time cruisers?
- Thread starter Captain Larry-DH
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AI is also a program of sorts. The models were fine. Just like hurricane models; the further in time you go from the initial conditions at t-nought, the greater the uncertainty of model predictions, etc. As long as they are up-dated they have value. If a hurricane does not hit where first predicted b/c conditions change, that’s no reason to throw out, or supplant, the modeling approach.
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People watch too muchTV. Cannot solve complex problems in an hour, in the real world.
Capta and Jssailem: While I believe in your hopes, I wish I was as optimistic that those directions will be taken. Am afraid things will return to same old, in a matter of months after "normal" returns, with many people opposing each other. Sorry to be so pessimistic - 9/11 taught me that we have short memories.
In business, EVERYONE immediately after 9/11 was very involved in Disaster Recovery Plans, Business Continuity, and Preparedness. Six months later, virtually all resources and $$ were gone from those initiatives.
I truly wish and hope that the younger generation can push us to take climate change seriously, and invest more of our resources in green initiatives, and dramatically cutting down on waste that will virtually never decompose.
On the sailing note - the "industry" has been in decline for many years. Slips that were once hard to get, are not plentiful. Younger folks don't want to spend time to learn all the skills and intricacies of sailing. Those with money will continue to buy expensive power boats that they can get into with little or no training - for instant gratification. Sailboats continue to become more of a bargain for those interested.
In business, EVERYONE immediately after 9/11 was very involved in Disaster Recovery Plans, Business Continuity, and Preparedness. Six months later, virtually all resources and $$ were gone from those initiatives.
I truly wish and hope that the younger generation can push us to take climate change seriously, and invest more of our resources in green initiatives, and dramatically cutting down on waste that will virtually never decompose.
On the sailing note - the "industry" has been in decline for many years. Slips that were once hard to get, are not plentiful. Younger folks don't want to spend time to learn all the skills and intricacies of sailing. Those with money will continue to buy expensive power boats that they can get into with little or no training - for instant gratification. Sailboats continue to become more of a bargain for those interested.
The new models, with furling everything, electric winches, high hp diesels, chartplotters, electric AP, AIS, and etc., means one does not have to know more than a newbie power boater to be a sailboater.
Disagree. Sounds good, but no so much. All that power translates into more expensive mistakes, and more maintenance.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 21,849
Sounds like what my parents called “The Golden Rule”. Back when there rules to help with understanding civility.
Perhaps when the butterfly flaps his wings a Hurricane does blow on the other side of the world.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 21,849
Boats in a marina are location and seasonal.
Puget Sound sees a ever increasing monthly rate and yet few empty slips. In Everett with nearly 2000 slips sail boats out number power boats 3-1 maybe 4-1. The big boats (50ft plus) are power.
Puget Sound sees a ever increasing monthly rate and yet few empty slips. In Everett with nearly 2000 slips sail boats out number power boats 3-1 maybe 4-1. The big boats (50ft plus) are power.
Presently, our local closures here in Long Beach are "scheduled" to end on May 15. For many, that's very near the start of the "summer" cruising season. However, where we sailboaters might cruise to, even "close to home", is still a question
. Heading into Mexico could be a problem now. I have a friend whose boat is stuck there indefinitely without its skipper, who is here! We are also hearing that island residents do not wish "us" to visit. The chief reason is that those communities are not prepared to take care of many residents who might become ill with the covid-19 in short time. We hear this for Catalina Island, various small islands of British Columbia, and then today, the islands off New England, the summer cruising grounds there; we hear it as well in the Caribbean. So, that is the threat underlying reduced access and potentially so for the long term.An option is to go where the people ain't! Comparatively remote places w/o local communities. Hence, no services to be denied. The best and only place near here are the northern Channel Islands, including Santa Barbara Island. They are national parks, or otherwise wilderness areas, that are open to boaters who may go ashore. How many newbies would join the sailing community here in CA with that in mind as the main cruising venue? I think few, and probably good for them!! But, it is nevertheless available.
I encounter more folks these days coming out of, than going into, boating. Shortly after our local restrictions went into effect, four or so sailboats on my dock were offered. There seem to be many vacant slips. That can actually be good if you wish to move the boat around. Cruising will still be here. It will require greater skill and experience (and fortitude) to visit remote sites than that needed to visit Catalina Island and hang on the mooring ball with literally HUNDREDS of others (much of the time). Expect to see even fewer power boaters, therefore
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Think we're going to see a surge in first-time cruisers?
No.
Some of the posters have mentioned New Zealand, Venice but mostly (understandably) have talked about close to home.
I am an Australian living in Japan, so my view is a little different.
New Zealand has reduced new infections almost down to zero and when they do what next?
Allow foreign sailors to enter?
Allow foreign businesspeople, tourists, students, whoever to enter?
Now, let's think about Italy, Spain, France and Turkey in the Med.
The islands of South East Asia?
Even if we in the wealthy west end up with a (yearly) vaccine, how does that effect people on Fiji.
It is so easy to see this as a personal or local problem. It isn't.
As Capta mentioned, we will be a very different world as we continue to deal with this over the next 20 years.
Sailing locally , is a lot better than what a lot of humanity will be dealt.
Gary
No.
Some of the posters have mentioned New Zealand, Venice but mostly (understandably) have talked about close to home.
I am an Australian living in Japan, so my view is a little different.
New Zealand has reduced new infections almost down to zero and when they do what next?
Allow foreign sailors to enter?
Allow foreign businesspeople, tourists, students, whoever to enter?
Now, let's think about Italy, Spain, France and Turkey in the Med.
The islands of South East Asia?
Even if we in the wealthy west end up with a (yearly) vaccine, how does that effect people on Fiji.
It is so easy to see this as a personal or local problem. It isn't.
As Capta mentioned, we will be a very different world as we continue to deal with this over the next 20 years.
Sailing locally , is a lot better than what a lot of humanity will be dealt.
Gary
I don't know who has been filling your head with such poppycock, but the statement in bold is pure nonsense when it comes to places like Catalina Island, various small islands of British Columbia, and the islands off New England. Whoever put forth this theory must be living in the 18th century, because today we have such things as helicopters and planes to air-evac any ill or injured person to the mainland for proper medical help. This would be the case for a local resident as well.
As for places like the Caribbean, where air-evac isn't as feasible, they certainly wouldn't want non-citizens filling up their hospitals, but so far the infection rate down here has been very low, so they probably have room for foreigners, too.
The reality is that borders are closed, and islands don't want visitors, not because they can't deal with the infected, but because they don't want outsiders bringing the virus into their community. And rightly so, IMO. Some may think that sailing is the ultimate isolation, but getting to and from the boat requires passing through and into society for food, parts, fuel and if needed, help, that wouldn't be needed if one were isolating at home.
Every time someone leaves their home they expose themselves to the virus, and if they contract it, even if they don't become visibly ill, they could pass it on. IMO, that is the equivalent of manslaughter. It is why those protesting to reopen the country too soon disgust me. Most are young enough that they may not become terribly ill, but they have shown that they don't even have the basic intelligence to wear a mask (since their leader won't, why should they?) or social distance when out in a large crowd, so once infected, they will be a danger to anyone they come in contact with
The poppycock, as you call it, comes from published statements of those folks running the places. It’s hardly theoretical. The Catalina Company has openly stated fear of overwhelming its ONE local care facility in Avalon with its OWN island residents as its principal reason for closing the island. Moreover, this has been the underlying premise of the entire national shutdown, i.e., “flatten the curve.” Also, the recent quarantine rules put in place at Block Island.
Run potentially DAILY air evacs between the island and Los Angeles? If one has it, many do as well. Perhaps from the view atop your soapbox you can tell us all why Catalina Island has closed its shores to visitors, and even to some liveaboards on the moorings or at anchor, so we can empty our heads of such poppycock?
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A buddy of mines 81 year old neighbor lived alone. His life consisted of frequent trips to the local pub or senior center to socialize. He wasn't into online dating or Netflix or Hulu. The shutdown took everything that was important in his life away so he ended it all last week. The virus isn't the only thing that kills. How many more are in similar situations?
I thought I did so, but if you missed it, I'll try again.
I really do not care how they choose to phrase it in a press release, the only good reason to deny entry to nonresidents is to keep the disease off the island in the first place, not deal with it after the fact as few, if any, small islands like those you mentioned, have the facilities to deal with something like C-19 or even major injuries. They all transport critical patients to major hospitals.
Capta, I honestly think that you have perhaps misinterpreted (the spirit of) my comment as it is worded. What I can see here is virtual agreement. 1) The local authorities don't want the covid-19 on the island, period. 2) And if it does arrive, they are not well prepared to deal with it locally, etc. The only thing at "issue", the poppycock part I suppose, seems to be is whether or not 2 drives 1. I've said it does; you say it doesn't. I quote the authorities who have said as much, but it could be just "cover." Either way, we are not going ashore.
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Not to belabor the point too much, but most of those areas are tourist areas and the perception that "we can't handle" is certainly easier to say to people than, "we don't want you". Most, if not all, only have clinics anyway, so "we can't handle" kinda goes w/o saying.I quote the authorities who have said as much, but it could be just "cover." Either way, we are not going ashore.
Very sad. Loneliness is a terrible thing, and is especially common among seniors even in the best of times. He might have already been on the edge of what he could bear before all this.
Maybe, but not from what I'm told. How many old guys hang out in bars and resturaunts with friends because wives and children are now gone. They are now imprissoned in thier own homes and don't access the internet. This shutdown is stealing life and liberty from them. One month of a seniors life is a much higher percentage of what they have left on this earth than a younger person. You say "He might have already been on the edge", well the same is true for the majority that have succumbed to the virus. If I was that old guy I would be begging to let me live my life and I'll take my chances with the virus. The shutdown is punishing the vast majority for the sake of those "on the edge". We should protect the vulnerable not deny them the freedom to chose.
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