Wait a minute. I said 3 to my 1
So if you take the add on bet, that would be 4 beers, yours, to my 1 beer.
Greta Thunberg sails back to Europe on La Vagabonde
- Thread starter Captain Larry-DH
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So if you take the add on bet, that would be 4 beers, yours, to my 1 beer.
PS: Dave may win his UNDER bet.
We’ll see. Still a lot of miles to travel and forecast models to be run. It is interesting to look at the many factors they need to consider though.
Has anyone wondered if Greta makes it to Spain in time, the meeting might be moved to -say, India. Maybe the climatologists would rather meet without the personality challenged teen - her voyage being a testimony to the value of scheduled airline flight. Maybe they just want to have a nice academic meeting without the politics. I can always hope.
OKWait a minute. I said 3 to my 1
So if you take the add on bet, that would be 4 beers, yours, to my 1 beer.
Looking at their overnight change...
1) Lost speed, guessing no spinnaker on over night watch.
2) Heading more North [ my beer wins are looking better]
3) They may be waiting for Sebastien to get whacked by Monday.
Wait they won't go much East till tomorrow... wait and see.
Beer Beer Beer....
Jim...
1) Lost speed, guessing no spinnaker on over night watch.
2) Heading more North [ my beer wins are looking better
]3) They may be waiting for Sebastien to get whacked by Monday.
Wait they won't go much East till tomorrow... wait and see.
Beer Beer Beer....
Jim...
Wow. Could they have picked a worse time weather wise? It looks like the entire North Atlantic is a mess until the middle of next week. On a more positive note it appears that winds and seas are not on their nose.
Yeah, they are slow now. Looks to me like they’re in a bit of a hole, riding a ridge of calm relatively high pressure between Sebastian and a low to their north west. I still think they’ll be able to clear it and speed up again soon, and at first glance I’m not scared by any of the storms that I think will pass them to the north. Going to play with my Windy route more later when I’m at my computer to see the impact of today’s model runs.Looking at their overnight change...
1) Lost speed, guessing no spinnaker on over night watch.
2) Heading more North [ my beer wins are looking better
3) They may be waiting for Sebastien to get whacked by Monday.
Wait they won't go much East till tomorrow... wait and see.
Beer Beer Beer....
Jim...
I did mine and they are, like @Rick486 noted, at a crossroad of 3 pressure cells.
Oh well , I do love Beer.
At least no rain for a day
Jim...
PS: Windy as forecasted
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,886
It looks like they made 140nm good to Lisbon yesterday. At that rate It looks like they can still arrive before 09DEC2019. Today is 23 Nov. 16 days times 140nm = 2240nm. Their current location as shown on their site puts them 1850nm from Lisbon....
Don't go drinking the beer before the sheep are in the pen. You may only be sucking foam...
Don't go drinking the beer before the sheep are in the pen. You may only be sucking foam...
Some excerpts From Nikki on Facebook 3 hours ago are below. Sounds a bit squally but good otherwise. Presumably the slow speeds we saw this morning were right before they put the Code 0 up and got back over 7 kts.
Day 11
We’ve just had our first +200NM day. It brought its fair share of excitement.
After surfing all night downwind between 10 - 20 knots (so fun!) we received our stark reminder to pace ourselves. We had been awaiting a wind shift from south westerly winds to north westerly - and at breakfast the shift arrived together with an ominous black cloud. It was - as we said afterwards - what most sailors would call the stuff of nightmares: a 60 degree wind shift, an increase from 20-45 knots and lashing rain. Thankfully it was in the day, so we spotted it and - whilst we didn’t expect quite that much wind -
I had at least managed to get my gear on in time. Riley and Elayna were not so lucky!
...
We have slowed a little now - so time to pop up the code 0. Hopefully we get a bit of north in before the wind shifts back to the south west today to maintain slightly more pressure.
Planning our half way party for a few days time ... cookies on the agenda. Any suggestions??
Day 11
We’ve just had our first +200NM day. It brought its fair share of excitement.
After surfing all night downwind between 10 - 20 knots (so fun!) we received our stark reminder to pace ourselves. We had been awaiting a wind shift from south westerly winds to north westerly - and at breakfast the shift arrived together with an ominous black cloud. It was - as we said afterwards - what most sailors would call the stuff of nightmares: a 60 degree wind shift, an increase from 20-45 knots and lashing rain. Thankfully it was in the day, so we spotted it and - whilst we didn’t expect quite that much wind -
I had at least managed to get my gear on in time. Riley and Elayna were not so lucky!
...
We have slowed a little now - so time to pop up the code 0. Hopefully we get a bit of north in before the wind shifts back to the south west today to maintain slightly more pressure.
Planning our half way party for a few days time ... cookies on the agenda. Any suggestions??
My updated Windy route - Windy as forecasted
Point 3 is now. Each subsequent point is mid-afternoon for the following day. Changed some of the earlier points based on their progress over the last day, but no other big changes from my previous guess. High pressure ridge might catch them somewhere around the 27th and leave them a bit becalmed for a few days. Or the forecast might change a few times before then.
Point 3 is now. Each subsequent point is mid-afternoon for the following day. Changed some of the earlier points based on their progress over the last day, but no other big changes from my previous guess. High pressure ridge might catch them somewhere around the 27th and leave them a bit becalmed for a few days. Or the forecast might change a few times before then.
I had set it up that way yesterday. At that time the forecast was calling for strong NE winds off Portugal for those few days. I figured they might ride those further south east, then finish by coming back to the NE after the wind turned again. Today’s models don’t seem to have that low forecast quite as bad, but it’s still a long way off.
Edit: the above is why I have them gaining latitude through point 10, then diving south if those NE winds materialize. I also have a few other perturbations off the rhumb line, mostly just to stay in moderate winds below the storms passing to their north and becalming Highs to the south.
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They might have to hold North to keep the breeze up. "course they're trying to have a safe passage and I'm trying for a couple of free beers. Different agendas! Now get that Code 0 up!
No big changes to my guesses from yesterday. Here's my updated route, with point 4 at their current location - Windy as forecasted
I still have them making a big southerly dip and then northerly finish to deal with a Low pressure system at the end. Plus the extra distance there helps pad the mileage/ETA to compensate for anything else overly optimistic. That high pressure ridge around the 27th still looks like it'll slow them down for a couple days, but I'm still estimating arrival on the 4th.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,886
Well a glance at our sailing boat shows they slowed yesterday and the Low pressure Storm known as Sebastian is now out ahead of them.
They are now aprox 1600 nm from Lisbon. Again doing 8 plus knots.
They are now aprox 1600 nm from Lisbon. Again doing 8 plus knots.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,886
Inside my 2-5 Dec Window of possibility... I like your thinking and ciphering, David.
well don't drink your beers yet
That spinnaker is all they got to move EAST for the next 3 days.
As of this post, are heading NE a 9.3 knots
or spiting vectors... ≈4.5 knots in the needed direction, EAST.
By morning the Great Circle bearing to Lisbon is 88°
Jim...
PS: Current bearing will end them up in France.
Wow, no change in course as of this time.
They are sailing a sloop and not a square rigger?
I hope someone can explain this.
Samuel Adams
aka...Jim...
Indeed our travelers do continue to progress farther north. Good thing too, as there is a High bringing calmer winds just a couple hundred miles south of them. It looks to me like the High will still catch them in a couple days, which would make for some calm turkey cooking weather, except it doesn't seem like turkey eating is in their plans.
My updated route, accounting for their continued northerly track, is Windy as forecasted. Currently at spot 5. I still have them arriving on the 4th, although the routing will get interesting later this week, between the segment of calm followed by a couple of Lows moving north of them that may disturb the prevailing westerlies.
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