• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

TS Gordon-PTC# 7

Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
We just got a "Storm Surge Alert" from NOAA here on the Admirals iPhone. That means the Marinas were told yesterday. Heading down the boat in a few minutes. Luckily we live 3 miles away from our Marina.
___
I sent @HarrisOutdoors a PM since I joked with him about where to park his boat in a storm. Told him it would cost him a beer for the info.
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,088
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
You guys be careful. I want you all to have boats so I can come down for a visit and a sail.
Of course I am concerned about your safety and health. That goes without saying.
Be smart and keep the faith.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
That Surge alert is now showing Gordon on a more Eastward tracking movement. The surge alert was from the mouth of the Pearl River to Alabama. Which puts Mississippi Gulf Coast in the middle.:(
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Well the First Hurricane Hunter flew through and located the center at more Eastward, thus the shift in tracking.
recon_AF307-0107A-GORDON.png

The HH are always the best information.
Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Looks like a Mississippi Coast hit for Gordon. All of the data buoy and last Hurricane Hunters #3 flight showed a slight Westward movement.
Winds are still ≈40 knots or less, not a very big wind field. All of the close by data buoys show < 10 knots.

Only Gulfport Marina had a mandatory evacuation. Marinas West are not.
I observed about 30 small craft heading West. Five sailboat were enjoy the sunny afternoon, light seas sail, but not Gordon winds.
The winds were from the Low Pressure sucking Gordon rapidly NW.

Most of the SBO people have secured their boat and are awaiting early morning data.
More info at the first Daylight HH flight.
Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The latest completed Hurricane Hunter flight is shown
recon_NOAA2-0407A-GORDON.png
. Note the higher winds to the North and East.
Gordon is moving very fast and had no eye wall. [a good thing]
Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The 11am CDT Hurricane Hunter flight shows no eye wall and stronger winds on the North and East of storm..
recon_AF305-0507A-GORDON.png

Note the jog to the North as Gordon follows [sucked into] the Low Pressure trough that is Eastbound at 15 mph.
Storm surge maximum on North part of storm.
Panhandle of Florida should feeling the winds now.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Sorry, I just corrected the Mobile AL buoy link in post #28. Peaking at 50 knot winds now.
Jim...

PS: Now a dramatic difference in wind speed further East.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Probably the last Hurricane Hunters flight, which zig zagged parallel with the coast line.
Mobile and Pensacola getting the brunt.
recon_NOAA2-0607A-GORDON.png

The Triangle shape wind arrow flag means 50 knots winds.
Jim...

PS: Arent Satellite great, you can even see the HH's plane in that Sat picture.;)
 
Jun 8, 2018
42
Hunter H27 Bay St Louis, Mississippi
Jim, You might have said before but what do you / did you do... there are a lot of meteorology links coming from you that a lot of "normal" people don't know about.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
there are a lot of meteorology links
Basically NOAA and Wunderground. I have to web search some, like for the Jet Stream forecast. Same for Hurricane Hunters. I have some Twitter links that clue in sites also.
Looking at Sat picts of West Africa to see the spin offs of tropical waves.
Eventually NOAA makes a "Point of Interest". This is NEW this year. If they keep that up, I can only add a little.

It is really a vast combination of sites that I have used.

I key in on HIGH pressure front movements and their Eastward speeds. LOWs like, Storms, are pushed aside and and flow into the trailing LOW pressure troughs.
I do simple math on reported speeds to project what is at most 10 days out.
The news cycle is fine to follow and NOAA is getting a bit braver.

The Hurricane Hunters are the real data takers. Once you can read those charts above you get first hand info.

Example:
Those Yellow labels are Data buoys, their last reported wind speed are the wind arrow on top those Yellow buoy ID#. I linked a few of them. The data buoy center culls the right ones in the storms path and highlights them. Also ocean going ships have weather links to NOAA and provide them with a moving weather station.

Looking at the HH's passes you could see that the High winds were North and West on Gordon.

On the Wunderground site there are great explanations of terms and why they look at specific data.

Trust me, NOAA and FEMA have more information and trends than just 10 days but they won't take a shot, they want to be spot on target.

A few SBO members were a bit shocked by Gordon's turn North to slam Mobile. I wasn't.
Some even scoff at my posts, since they can watch the news.:cool:

The News tries to dramatize a storm. They kept screaming Gordon is going CAT 1. My friends, who went through Katrina, begin to panic, on Facebook. I send out private eMails and PM's here with my solid info basis predictions, on a storm.
Jim...

PS: I did not move my boat on the Marian evacuation order. Why? I knew no big storm and I was prepared for the worst. I could have left my berth in 20 minutes if needed.

PSS: I wonder what the destructive difference is in 68 mph and 70 Cat 1 winds?
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,088
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
That is all very nice, but I like to think @JamesG161 is just a benevolent weather wizard. Sprinkling words of caution and encouragement in our ear to help us avoid the evils of storms.
 
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FDL S2

.
Jun 29, 2014
470
S2 7.3 Fond du Lac
That is all very nice, but I like to think @JamesG161 is just a benevolent weather wizard. Sprinkling words of caution and encouragement in our ear to help us avoid the evils of storms.
Where I live I do not have to worry about hurricanes, but I read everyone of these posts because-like most sailors, I suppose-I'm a weather geek. Following these storms on the news after reading his posts @JamesG161 is pretty good at predicting storms strength and their paths. I wish he could do the same for tornadoes like the 6 that hit my area last week-maybe I could have tied down the trees that got sheared off before it hit;)
 
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