• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

TS Gordon-PTC# 7

JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,423
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This is spinning up between Cuba and Bahamas. It has only a slight possibility to be a Named storm.
It will be fast moving toward the North West, but will strengthen when it passes into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday the 3rd.

This "quickie" will landfall around the Louisiana boot late Tuesday the 4th.
______
Noteworthy:
1) There is High Pressure over New Mexico now the will pass Eastbound leaving a very LOW Pressure Trough behind it.
This extreme LOW trough is sucking Invest 91 into it.:yikes:
2) Models are predicting a Tropical LOW over DALLAS TX , today:rolleyes::doh::rolleyes::p
3) This Invest 91 will tend to hover over East Texas the rest of the week.

Looks like there will a MODEL adjustment soon.;)
Jim...
 
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Will Gilmore

Will Gilmore

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Oct 19, 2017
7,746
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
If this system is moving into the Gulf of Mexico, does that mean there is a big low south of Jamaica or a large high off Bermuda? What is pushing or pulling that system westward when they normally move northeast from the Bahamas?

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
jssailem

jssailem

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Oct 22, 2014
21,104
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Use it all the time. Many different ways to look at the changing weather. I like it for the data which I find easier to access than SailFlow. @JamesG161 was telling me about looking at the wind at different levels to improve your understanding of the storm motions. You can change the reporting elevation. You can use at least two different models. Science stuff.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,423
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
If you note @jssailem link, the big HIGH moving into the Atlantic will be stalling out Florence.
Plus the resulting LOW trough behind sucking in this Invest 91.
____
jssailem said:
You can change the reporting elevation. You can use at least two different models. Science stuff.
Click to expand
If we want to see the real cause the swirling and what causes the spinning look at this link for the season.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_car_VSHD.gif
Vertical Shear.
And how they intensify....
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
Jim...
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,423
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
For your last Science Lesson for the Holidays...
Elevations have been measured with Atmospheric Pressure by aircraft for years. The Lower the pressure the higher your aircraft is.
Hurricane Hunters drop Dropsonde through a storm. Using that data, they can give real internal storm data, not satellite.
The 850 millibar point has been proven to be the key to Intensification.
So if you look at that point globally with satellites, you get the points of tropical formation.
Jim...

PS: Dropsonde is said as "Drop So ndd" not DropSunday
 
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BigEasy

BigEasy

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Jun 21, 2004
2,533
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
Definitely keeping an eye on this one. Should be here on Wednesday, in some form. Hopefully, nothing more than a tropical storm. I am always anxious when these systems get into the hot Gulf waters, there have been several historical instances when conditions change rapidly and the systems "blow up" into storms that forecasters couldn't predict. I don't anticipate having to move the boat for this one; however, depending on the wind intensity, I may have to put out some extra lines and strip the sails and canvas.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,423
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
BigEasy said:
Should be here on Wednesday
Click to expand
Our current forecast is starting Early Wednesday morning with EAST winds at 17 knots, gusts to 38 knots around noon.
More rain than wind, but I am going to put on 2 extra Spring lines today.
My boat is berthed East/West. I am opening my dodger wind shield.

Always stay safe...
Jim...
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,423
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
We just got a Potential Tropical Cyclone#7 [PTC] alert here on the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
So NOAA is kicking in the models and forecasts.
I will find the corresponding NOAA buoys to watch later.
Jim...
 
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kloudie1

kloudie1

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Nov 6, 2006
9,894
Hunter 34 Mandeville Louisiana
Kinda watching that one with interest myself!
I don't want to get into the traffic from P-Cola tomorrow.. I see the water is already ~ 2.5 feet up.. Doesn't look like too much wind in Mandeville (yet) but will be watching
 
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BigEasy

BigEasy

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Jun 21, 2004
2,533
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
Causeway bridge reporting 10 knot winds from ESE at 9:30 PM (Sunday). NWS is predicting possible tropical force winds on Tuesday night with winds from 35 to 45 with possible gusts up to 55. We shall see how this develops.
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,423
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Not much has changed on the path and wind predictions.
There are 3 Hurricane Hunter probes planned late today.

Gordon got finally named when one North Miami Station reported a gust of 40 mph.

Tuesday will finally show a full rotation and should be in Mid Gulf. Moving NW rapidly.
____
The local marinas have been told a 2 foot surge and are getting nervous about their power boxes.
Jim...
 
kloudie1

kloudie1

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Nov 6, 2006
9,894
Hunter 34 Mandeville Louisiana
Prediction slightly shifted a bit east in latest model run.. Data buoys on east FL coast showing slight pressure rise.. Not putting it to bed yet, but my prelim wind estimate for Mandeville is below TS strength and from the ENE.. our marina has tall trees (~50') protecting us from that direction.. as they did for Katrina.. Carefully watching..
 
BigEasy

BigEasy

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Jun 21, 2004
2,533
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
Heading over to the marina to do storm prep. Forecasts this morning have TS Gordon with winds of 60mph with higher gusts by Tuesday night. Hopefully that will be all there is to it; however, I have to work tomorrow and I don't want to wrestle the genoa from the furler on Tuesday night in rain & wind if the wind prediction increases. Claude, I don't have a forest surrounding me at Oak Harbor, so we get more wind exposure than you do at Mandeville! Just had some new canvas made in the spring, so I guess I will take that down also. All of this stuff comes off easy; its putting it all back that's a pain.
As I have said before, it always make me anxious when these systems move thru a patch of Gulf water that has surface temps in the upper 80's. Hopefully it continues to move quickly and won't have time to intensify very much.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,423
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This biggest problem for us appears to be a South East wind at high tide as it passes West of us. So far the winds are not the big thing.
I am preparing for a 4' tide/surge combination. It should not be problem in my berth.
If the Tuesday forecast is different, I will change plans quickly.
Hurricane Hunter data and that buoy above link should be informative Tuesday Noonish.
Jim...

PS: I am a little worried about @HarrisOutdoors who recently move into Bay St. Louis Marina. The Marina could make him evacuate.
 
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BigEasy

BigEasy

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Jun 21, 2004
2,533
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
JamesG161 said:
PS: I am a little worried about @HarrisOutdoors who recently move into Bay St. Louis Marina. The Marina could make him evacuate.
Click to expand
Yes, that is definitely a consideration for those in marinas directly on the MS Gulf Coast; marina management will request that everyone vacate the marina if a sufficiently large storm is forecast. That's an all day process to move the boat and secure it and get yourself back home or worse, evacuate if the storm is severe.
 
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