Here is how I would describe scientific “knowing.”
I found a wind tunnel and an instrumented wing in my fluid mechanics lab in college. The instrumentation consisted of 10 holes in the curved top and bottom surfaces of the wing. Because these holes were at right angles to the air flow, they sensed the pressure in the flow as it moved over the top of the wing. Tubes from the holes run out of the end of the wing where I could measure the difference between the stream pressure on the wing at the 20 points and the atmospheric pressure of still air in the lab. I measured these pressures for different angles of the wing to the air flow in the tunnel (angles of attack) and different wind speeds in the tunnel.
The pressure profiles over the wing were extremely repeatable for the same wind velocity, and angle of attack. That is strong evidence that my pressure profiles were “correct”. I could then calculate the aerodynamic lift and drag of the wing for each angle and velocity. (This analysis was for pressure profiles only - aerodynamic. It left out the effect of friction of the air on the wing which contributes to total drag.) When I researched other experiment results published from different labs around the world, their pressure profiles, and calculated lift and drag agreed with each other and with me. When a super majority of published papers agree, (say 90%) and those disagreeing pose no show stoppers, then I would call the results “settled science.”
Interestingly, there is no simple equation or model to explain precisely these wind tunnel results, and apply them to a sail. Kutta and Zhoukowski did a decent job of modeling the flow around my experimental wing (also ignoring the friction, or viscosity of the air on the wing.) Their model also explains the vortices that flow off the end of a wing, and the added drag these vortices produce.
A sail is more difficult because:
1. The wind speed over water varies considerably from the bottom to the top of the sail. (We call the result of this fact “twist.”)
2. A sail varies in shape from top to bottom, going from small to large, and varying in curvature.
3. Unlike a wing, a sail sheds vortices from both the top and the bottom.
Modern numerical analysis produces some reasonably accurate models of air flowing over sails, and of the resulting forces by computer brute force. Fluid mechanics of a grid of small areas of the sail are analyzed by solving the Navier-Stokes equations of each box of the grid, and harmonizing each box with those next to it over successive iterations This computation intensive task, that can take hours on a modern processor, results in the pretty pictures you can see online. I would call these efforts engineering to produce better sails, rather than science.