Here is the message I got from the Weather guy I have known for 6 years. Helps the Oregon Farmers prepare for weather events. Here is his message.
Wednesday October 12
DANGEROUS WIND POTENTIAL
Three powerful WIND and heavy rain storms are scheduled to strike the PNW in the next few days. BE PREPARED, patron! The Nat'l Wx Service will be providing updates as the series of storms approach our region of the country. Here is the latest as of this morning.
Storm 1: Timed for approx tomorrow morning, Thu Oct 13, this system will move up just west of the Oregon coast inside the 130W longitude line. Barometric center is progged in the range of 976-980 mb as it spins north and passes over Vancouver Is. The barometric difference between Crescent City CA and Vancouver Island could be 24 mb. Strong wind producer, esp along the coast. Gusts >40 mph are probable inland, west of Cascades, esp Willamette Valley. Heavy rain. A secondary low may form right behind the first on Thu night, generating another wind field, although not as strong. Heavy rain from this front will slam into CA from Sacramento north.
Storm 2: The Ghost of SANDGA, the western pacific typhoon. This is the big one of the 3. Baro center modeled to deepen to 956-960 mb as it approaches the coast of NW WA and going onshore over Vancouver Is. (Columbus Day storm, Oct 12, 1992 was 960 mb.) The barometric difference between Crescent City CA and Vancouver Island with Storm 2 could be >32 mb. KEY is the storm track, as WINDS will be hurricane force along the coast with definite possibility for gusts >55-65 mph inland. The 'saving grace' for Storm 2 is - as of today - that the center will track a bit farther west of Storm 1 before turning north, this can keep the strongest winds from striking inland. It would only take a path difference of 50- 75 miles closer to the OR coast to turn Storm 2 into a super storm. BE PREPARED for power outages that could last more than a day in some locations. HEAVY RAIN, esp south of Eugene into northern CA. Saturated soils and foliage on trees will compound the wind impact.
Storm 3: While smaller in scale, the third system is modeled to have a track right across the mouth of the Columbia and on over Yakima. With a center pressure progged at 984-988 mb, and a track directly onshore near Astoria, this WIND PUPPY could actually produce powerful winds in the Willamette Valley of the 3. Barometric difference from Ashland to Chehalis could be >24 mb in a very 'small space', relative to the previous two storms. Point being: another dangerous wind situation is possible early Tue Oct 18. More rain, too, of course.
Again, the purpose of this Special Statement is to wake everyone up to a major 'triple play' wind situation across much of the PNW, as well as FLOODING issues. Don't hesitate to get ready. Your host is attending meetings in Ohio, so will not have another chance to update here until return to Oregon late Fri afternoon (that will be a bumpy landing).
-Rufus
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