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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Invest 97L ---> TS Elsa

Feb 14, 2014
5,572
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Tracking models are on the map now, but differ.
____________________________
For Reference...
GFS = NOAA or Government which Focuses on USA et.al. It is assigned a Slot in World Wide Weather that slot is "L" for Atlantic Side
Thus Invest 97L
ECMWF
= European Models, but has grown as a Paid service for Global Forecasting. 77 models that collaborate and verify.

Note: Over the last few years, John and I both observed ECMWF is better until you get close to USA, then GFS rules.
_____________________________
Invest 92L model you see in the News is GFS.

The key date to see fate to this Storm is

Saturday July 3rd

Our quick analysis....
ECMWF combines it with several LOW's and spreads out over a wide area and it dies a rainy death.

GFS has it getting HEAT fuel from the Caribbean , and is what is showing now and will be named "ELSA".

The good news is the paths are over Cooler waters.
ohc_aQG3_latest_natl-2.gif

This is the time to prepare.
Jim and John

PS: We have a bet on which Model wins on Saturday.;)
 
Last edited:
Feb 14, 2014
5,572
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
PS: We have a bet on which Model wins on Saturday
I lost since GFS won the tracking model. I forgot Puerto Rico was in the potential path.

We waited on TS Elsa since we knew the Hurricane Status was short lived.

It gave us time to work out the cobwebs of meteorology data, and the many links of information available.
Windy.com is improving fast, but for mariners specific use, then this has the maps too.

nowCOAST™: NOAA's Web Mapping Portal to Real-Time Coastal Observations, Forecasts, and Warnings

NCMariner.jpeg


And this the Link to see my set up for that graphic.
nowCOAST™: NOAA's Web Mapping Portal to Real-Time Coastal Observations, Forecasts, and Warnings

_____
The closest weather buoy to TS Elsa, with a camera, is here...
NDBC - Station 42058 Recent Data

and the Sun is shining there now.

TS Elsa is breaking apart now due to upper level wind shear. The last near "Eye" drop buoy had huge opposing wind shear.

The best graphics from raw data spot, everyone uses is...
Tropical Tidbits
Levi Cowan, the owner of that site, is amazing.:clap:

Lot of wind and rain left in TS Elsa..

Break off your Cobwebs too and prepare yourselves...

Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
5,572
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
TS Elsa will present the worst side to Florida in the next 2 days.
There are few NOAA Weather stations and buoys in the path.

Key West...
Station Home Page - NOAA Tides & Currents

Winds now sustained 26 Knt.
plot_wind_pres.php-2.png

______________________________
Satan Shoals buoy... [Interesting name]
NDBC - Station 42095 Recent Data
This station has full wave profiles and data.

By knowing this type of information near you, you can see pending weather, not just Tropical Storms.
_______
The Hurricane Hunters and NOAA have flight mission into TS Elsa, back to back.
The NOAA aircraft have installed Doppler Radar in the Tail now.:cool:
Cool new data to help them find "Stream line" air flows.

Elsa7-6-21.jpeg


Never too late to secure your boats...
Jim...
 
Jan 1, 2006
5,955
Slickcraft 26 Greenport, NY
Looks like Southeastern FL is going to skate thru this one. Raining now (Which we seriously need) and wind is calm. We did go thru our Hurricane prep drill yesterday which is a good exercise and closed South and Eastern storm shutters which is good to do to kick the Mud Daubers out of the tracks - and a couple frogs too.
 
Oct 22, 2014
15,722
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
Preparation is what make living easy...:biggrin:
That and a little :beer: to relieve a parched throat.
 

SFS

.
Aug 18, 2015
1,949
West Marine Kayak Tampa Bay
Well, it's getting close, and we've had a little rain, and not much wind. Going to bed, so I guess I'll miss most of it.
 
Oct 22, 2014
15,722
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
SFS
I believe your yard is going to get a good soaking. You will know if your shingles are still soundly nailed. Sleep soundly and let us know in the morning.
 

SFS

.
Aug 18, 2015
1,949
West Marine Kayak Tampa Bay
I didn't see your post until this morning, but as it turned out I took your advice and slept soundly. Current conditions are breezy, though not windy, and it is raining off and on. I see no signs of flooding or downed trees out any of my windows, and we have not yet lost power. All in all, a lot to be grateful for.

Best of all, the boat did just fine, folded up in the basement, secure in its carrying case. :wink:
 
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