This Tropical Waves appears to be what I call a ...
Coast Line Skimmer
The Center of Storm stays in the Water for refueling, evaporates Gulf of Mexico water, then dumps rain on land.
The Big models are in close agreement on tracking.
The Yucatan is getting a lot of rain now.
Investigation 99L is a Tropical wave birthed in the Caribbean.
The Tropical Waves off Africa have been weak from low HEAT fuel.
The Caribbean has plenty of HEAT!
The Tracking models are still weak, but if it enters the Gulf of Mexico, land impact looks possible.
Saturday the 28th, models...
TS Henri [On Ree]
This storm looked like an Atlantic "Fish Storm" until this morning.
The storm may graze the USA on the weekend, and most likely at Hurricane strength.
More to come as TS Henri begins to turn.
TS Grace is much more defined than TS Fred.
The Storm is following in about the same track.
TS Grace will be a bigger threat to land and sailing.
Hispaniola will again help out the Bahamas and Florida
If the long ranges models are correct, it will loop over to South Carolina.
Tracking models are on the map now, but differ.
GFS = NOAA or Government which Focuses on USA et.al. It is assigned a Slot in World Wide Weather that slot is "L" for Atlantic Side
Thus Invest 97L
ECMWF = European Models, but has grown as a...
INVESTigation 92L has been on the Modeling Radar, so to speak, for many days.
There is a elongated LOW pressure with the Tropical storm characteristics in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
I am sure your Weather apps and Facebook Alarms have all Alerted most.
Invest 92L is struggling from HIGHs off...
Colorado State University has been Forecasting Hurricane Seasons for many years.
They are more bold in their Statistical Modeling reporting.
Here is some of excerpts from their report. They just revised it and it is a bit less.
Probability of a hit near you.
A very sensitive input...