• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Laura <--- TS Laura <--- TD 13 <--- Invest 98L

Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This is now big time scary...

Storm surge at near Katrina Levels and unsurvivable near Eye Wall.
DAMMIT Jim...
 
Jan 1, 2006
7,069
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
We kid around with the Dammit Jim thing. But this looks ominous. My sister is in Houston. She'll probably be OK but I am worried. I gently suggested she take a vacation somewhere for a week. She had enough notice. But's she's staying. It's too close to the monster. I'm coming to think the best strategy for these storms involves some upwind work on a 737. My best wishes for all who will suffer from this storm.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
They will Block I-10 to prevent entry into that area. The State Police stopped all Traffic for 2 days after Katrina.
This is big time serious.

And the "Dammit Jim" was a tag done with tongue in cheek. I use it to point out seriousness of the Weather events.

Dammit Jim...

DammitJim.jpeg
 
Last edited:
Jan 1, 2006
7,069
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
And the "Dammit Jim" was a tag done with tongue in cheek. I use it to point out seriousness of the Weather events.
Dammit Jim...
View attachment 184212
I get it and enjoy the punctuation the expression offers. I well remember Dr. McCoy on Star Trek. "Dammit Jim, I'm a Doctor!"
We used to say it all the time in school. To wrap up, "Dammit Jim, a lot of people are going to be in the hurt locker this weekend!"
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
"Dammit Jim, a lot of people are going to be in the hurt locker this weekend!"
I just reviewed the most recent Hurricane Hunters dropsonde buoys and the narrowed down the point of "hurt locker"

I lived in Orange TX [ on map on I-10] and know that almost everything from TX along the LA coast line is flat marsh land the reason the Surge will pass far inland.

HurtLocker.jpeg


You can see the marsh versus dwellings.

Pray for them tonight.
 

HMT2

.
Mar 20, 2014
899
Hunter 31 828 Shoreacres, TX
We kid around with the Dammit Jim thing. But this looks ominous. My sister is in Houston. She'll probably be OK but I am worried. I gently suggested she take a vacation somewhere for a week. She had enough notice. But's she's staying. It's too close to the monster. I'm coming to think the best strategy for these storms involves some upwind work on a 737. My best wishes for all who will suffer from this storm.
H town will be fine, depending on exactly where she is in Houston the only significant concern will be loss of power from downed trees IF the wind shows up.. That will be mainly east of I45. Thus far it is clear and not much of a breeze. The Golden Triangle is an all together different story. Praying for all in the path.
 
Jun 21, 2004
2,533
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
My heart goes out to all who are going to be wiped out, lose their homes, businesses, and worldly possessions. Lots of suffering for those folks for a long time. I pray that they had the sense to evacuate; unfortunately some insist on staying.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
We just noted a convoy of Power Line trucks heading West on I-10 to help out after Laura.

We have an eerie breeze/gust of 10 mph at my house in Mississippi now from Laura.

Basically a 30-40 mile wide Tornado at landfall.
 

WayneH

.
Jan 22, 2008
1,039
Tartan 37 287 Pensacola, FL
I have a stepson who lives in Central Gardens between Port Arthur and Beaumont, TX. His mom and I are paying for his hotel room in New Braunfels as his job has closed down and during Harvey their house was surrounded by water. Hoping he has a house to go back to on Saturday.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
If you look at this NOAA Station now you can see the surge and Eye pass over on 8/27 1:00 am.
Station Home Page - NOAA Tides & Currents

It was HIGH tide there too.
≈9 ft max surge and overall duration of rising water ≈5 hours.
Why not 30 feet?

Flat marshes for many miles
Jim...

PS: In case you miss it
Lpassing.jpeg
 
May 17, 2004
5,071
Beneteau Oceanis 37 Havre de Grace
If you look at this NOAA Station now you can see the surge and Eye pass over on 8/27 1:00 am.
Station Home Page - NOAA Tides & Currents

It was HIGH tide there too.
≈9 ft max surge and overall duration of rising water ≈5 hours.
Why not 30 feet?

Flat marshes for many miles
Jim...

PS: In case you miss it
View attachment 184235
Thanks for pointing to this and the other buoys that had been in the storm’s path. Is there any centralized list of all of these various data sources? I’ve seen multiple different pages, each with their own maps, but no one unified source where you could just look at one region on a map and know everything available there. If no one source exists, maybe you and jssailem could post a list of links to all the various sources.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
If no one source exists, maybe you and jssailem could post a list of links to all the various sources.
The main source for all weather is here.
nowCOAST™: NOAA's Web Mapping Portal to Real-Time Coastal Observations, Forecasts, and Warnings

From that main source you can get specific Marine Weather too, plus all "Hyperlinks". [Their term, not mine]

I have bookmarked several spots for access to NOAA coastal Weather Stations like the one above and are found here.
Station Selection - NOAA Tides & Currents
If you look at the top of at link, they sorted all Hurricane Laura links to focus your search.

Also I use this bookmark for All the known buoys and even "Ships" at sea that are certified.
National Data Buoy Center
Hurricane Laura links to focus your search here also.

In addition, we use this great site to inform this Forum on all Ocean Activity.
Tropical Tidbits

Short list, but key for storms.

Jim and John;)
 
Jun 1, 2015
217
Macgregor 26d Trailer Estates, Fl
H town will be fine, depending on exactly where she is in Houston the only significant concern will be loss of power from downed trees IF the wind shows up.. That will be mainly east of I45. Thus far it is clear and not much of a breeze. The Golden Triangle is an all together different story. Praying for all in the path.
The thought process of putting a multi million occupant city in a location 50’ below sea level so close to the coast would be amazing. I guess when established no one was thinking about that though. Have family there so hope all are ok.
 
Jun 1, 2015
217
Macgregor 26d Trailer Estates, Fl
We just noted a convoy of Power Line trucks heading West on I-10 to help out after Laura.

We have an eerie breeze/gust of 10 mph at my house in Mississippi now from Laura.

Basically a 30-40 mile wide Tornado at landfall.
Several years ago, forget which storm, the power crews were headed from Ky to Texas to help, when the “remnants” blew by them. Took them several days to get back. First time I’d ever heard of Ky being without power for a week due to a hurricane.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
the power crews were headed from Ky
It was Kentucky power crews who restored our power....

28 Days after

Hurricane Katrina stopped ours.
Jim...

PS: Just in time... our whole house generator was running out of Propane. 500 gallons went a long ways.
 
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