• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Laura <--- TS Laura <--- TD 13 <--- Invest 98L

JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I did not post on Invest 97L, since it dies quickly and taking Heat from the Caribbean.:)

But this one...
Is very threatening to somewhere along the USA coast lines.

Do not use any tracking model until perhaps Fri-Sat.

Both of these disturbances are Zooming West a nearly 20 mph [normally ≈10 mph]

The Trade Winds are not being opposed this year, thus the High Atlantic Activity predicted by the NHC.

The Sahara Dust is still saving us from intensity as well as the speed westerly.

Remember do not wait till next week to check out your boat preparations.
More to come on Invest 98L
Jim...

PS: Many African spinoffs are happening now, as the Monsoon season is starting.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Tropical Depression 13 is now being model tracked, but the main models differ.

Still unlikely to grow in intensity over the next few days, as TD 13 meets major disrupting forces over the islands.

Just a slight hiccup in wind speeds and it will be named Laura. [much easier to say:cool:]
_____
JamesG161 said:
I did not post on Invest 97L
Click to expand
I looks like it will cross the Isthmus into the Pacific and stalls there.
One model has TD 13 merging with Invest 97 early next week and then forming a Pacific storm. Crazy!
_______

Noteworthy, at least for me, is the Island of Saba is under Tropical Storm Warnings now.
That is the name of our boat, Saba.:pimp:

Keep your eye on TD 13....
Jim...
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
They Hurricane Hunters were on a very low level flight early this morning.

recon_NOAA2-0213A-CYCLONE-2.png


Typical wind field on N an NE quadrant, away from land for now.

The Sahara Dust dry air is damping both storms!:clap:
SaharaDust.jpeg


TD 13 is NE of the Windward Islands.

It is looking like a lot of rain and not too high of winds as it tracks.
Models should agree on Sunday.
Jim...
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Glad they finally named Tropical Storm Laura, both storms by Number were causing confusion.

Looks like Florida will get more Rain than significant winds.

But...
You have time to prepare you boats.
Jim...
 
kappykaplan

kappykaplan

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May 1, 2011
4,238
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
Just saw an update on Laura and TD 14 - it's not pretty. Looks like Laura is predicted to track a little farther west. What say you, @JamesG161 and @jssailem ?
 
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jssailem

jssailem

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Oct 22, 2014
21,088
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Kappy it's 0230 I’m up and taking a glimpse at the storms development. Now I’m wondering do I turn on the computer and brew coffee or try and get another couple hours of sleep.

There appear to be a number of still undefined possibilities as these two storms continue to progress. Both deserve our attention over the next 24 hours. Both look like teenagers that are stirring up noise. At present it is to early to tell how they will develop/which path they will take will they develop/strengthen or just rain out. Both appear to be shedding considerable moisture as they progress over the next 24 hours. Flash flooding is being forecast in their pathway.

Both storms are on our radar. More in the morning. My pillow calls.
 
kappykaplan

kappykaplan

.
May 1, 2011
4,238
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
Tks - looking forward to what you come up with. There was talk this morning of Marco getting torn up as it crosses the mountains, but there is still considerable energy in the Gulf of Mexico to feed on. Enjoy your sleep.
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The wait for me was to see if TS Laura was going through the gap between Cuba and Florida.
Both models agree, no, and that surface drag of Cuba will weaken TS Laura.:)

The N-NE wind side will be over Cuba and no Heat Fuel.

All of the Hurricane Hunter missions are low level flights, since that is where the winds are maximum.
To get more intensity, the warm surface humidity must flow UP [Vorticity] to the colder upper air to condense.
_____
Laura should follow in behind a HIGH pressure front centered over Arkansas now, moving ESE.

Very little strengthening is expected when TS Laura emerges in the Gulf. Fast moving and still in Sahara Dry Air.:clap:
Jim...
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
jssailem said:
Is why these storms are showing up disorganized.
Click to expand
Fast Trade Wind
Dry Sahara Air
Big HIGH over Central Atlantic
Previous storms removing Heat

All the factors at the peak of the 2020 Season
Jim...
 
jssailem

jssailem

.
Oct 22, 2014
21,088
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Will keep an eye out Kappy. Still a bit early to get solid info.
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Texas East counties were notified by NOAA yesterday and Louisiana West parishes also.

Can you guess, by this Storm Surge Graphic, where the Eye is going to strike land first?

211401_peak_surge.png


I am sure glad we prepared for 3 feet surge yesterday and @kloudie1 & @BigEasy too!

We felt the winds from Hurricane Laura late this afternoon, from the East.

This next graphic is Experimental from NOAA.

ExperimentSurge.jpeg


Note: Storm Surge is highest on the East side of the Eye, where wind drives the water inland.
That part of Louisiana Coast is low Marshes.

Dammit Jim...
 
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BigEasy

BigEasy

.
Jun 21, 2004
2,533
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
JamesG161 said:
We felt the winds from Hurricane Laura late this afternoon, from the East.
Note: Storm Surge is highest on the East side of the Eye, where wind drives the water inland.
That part of Louisiana Coast is low Marshes.
Click to expand
Jim,
I checked the boat Tuesday around 4PM, appeared that water level was approximately 2 ft above normal. I am sure it will increase a couple feet higher with southeasterly flow that is likely to continue for a day or two. All things considered, we were very lucky here.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Laura has now got a visible EYE and is in full circulation.

The current Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now.
recon_NOAA2-2213A-LAURA.png


The Yellow numbers are data buoys
This is the link to 42395.
NDBC - Station 42395 Recent Data

Nearly 100 knots gusts at the surface.
plot_wind_pres.php-8.png


But the Pressure is starting to rise, but low was 972 mb:yikes:

The Eye is Oval shaped so will impact a larger area on landfall.

Dammit Jim...
 
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