Hurricane Isaias <--- TS Isaias <--- PTC 9 <--- Invest 92L

[jssailem]

Reading the tea leaves about Tropical Storm Isaias, now due to winds at 70 vs 75 knots (yes that is the difference between a Hurricane and a Tropical Storm), you East coast boat owners would be wise to keep an ear out for local news.

It appears the storm is being affected (being beat up) by upper level winds while being starved of energy due to lower surface water temps. This is all good news. Caution is suggested due to the uncertainty of the path to be taken by the storm. It still has a lot of moisture, and it is going to drop that moisture somewhere. Be it Northern Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. The track it takes in the next 18 hours will help define the way the storm will track.

• Off shore where there is potential for energy development may mean a punch into the Carolinas when it comes back ashore.
• On shore dumping water across Florida, may mean a lesser rainfall event as it moves North and East.

Listen to your local forecasters. As @JamesG161 and I discussed today, it is likely to have intense local impact rather than across the East Coast damage. There will be tidal highs as the storm moves along in a NE direction. Not a bad idea to check your mooring/dock lines on your boat.

Note... James identified the storm about 2 weeks ago as it was birthing off the coast of Africa. I think the guy has a sixth sense about these things.

 

[JamesG161]

Now downgraded to...

Tropical Storm Isaias

John and I hate to brag but [ cough cough ehemmm]

And please do not re-read post #14 above for the reasons why.
______
One item that we are learning about is the shape of the center of a Tropical Storm.

A well defined eye with a pure vertical surface to sky form, will intensify quickly.

This storm had bent eye like an oval, less chance of what forecasters call Convection.

This Convection can be used visually by you, when you sail for finding the worst area for local squalls.

TS Isaias was continually deformed and appears to maintaining that trend up the East Cost.

The Hurricane Hunters were doing Low Level flights during the night and found the maximum winds, not at the surface, but much higher. They had trouble finding the Low pressure spot and the main reason tracking models appeared to be screwy.

Also the models are showing much higher center barometric pressures in the forecast [a good thing]

I still see the Storm Tides as the worst part for boat preparations.

Jim...

PS: The EMCWF tracking model does not use Hurricane Hunter data and GFS models do.

 

[shemandr]

Report from Jensen Beach: I think Tampa is getting more rain than us. We've had very little rain, although it is all around us. It just seem to be dry to the West of the center of rotation - if I'm seeing that correctly. It's been windy but not dangerous. I would estimate maybe a few gusts in the mid-forties but very brief. Otherwise under 20 knots and at some times still. Barometer is 29.64 inches via Storm.

 

[JamesG161]

It's been windy but not dangerous. I would estimate maybe a few gusts in the mid-forties but very brief. Otherwise under 20 knots and at some times still. Barometer is 29.64 inches via Storm.

I love the report!!!
_____
I am curious what the local news is saying.

Jim...

 

[Rick486]

I knew Jim that once I called your attention to this, you would fix it.

 

[shemandr]

Local news as seen while watching golf is still selling the storm. TS warnings for Palm Beach County, Martin County, St Lucie County , etc. Still talking about higher winds but their graphics are showing winds at 16 to low 20's. Still talking about storm surge of 1- 2 feet. Oh, and the ubiquitous rip tide alert. This just in: From news 12 talking 70 mph to 85 gusts (Near the Storm) and continued warnings about everything. Palm Beach County recorded a 35 mph gust they mentioned.
It's past us. Get over it.

 

[JamesG161]

@jssailem and I are always cautious about this forum being a forecaster.

A little history...
I have been sticking my neck out and trying to stay ahead of the News Cycle in the Sails Call Lounge, and in private for close friends for a few years.

Phil and others approached me about doing this Forum and we discussed the things we would not do.

Thus the reason John has the Pacific and I watch the Atlantic, but also we want to help calm and prepare SBO users for these storms. As you might guess John and I collaborate by phone et.al. often.
If you can read the boring introduction to the forum for more info.
_____
The real heroes are the Hurricane Hunters that provide the real data for us to use.

This is the current low level mission and if you look at the wind barbs they tell the wind story...

Only one beach weather station is reporting 30 knot winds. The rest are 10ish.
The winds are on the classic EAST to NE side of center.
Jim...

PS: Someone coined my title "Dammit Jim..." a fews ago when I started. So i use it when a Hurricane strike is near.
PSS: When i sign off with "Dammit Jim...", you can guess my insider forecast.

 

[JamesG161]

Need help on Wind Barbs?


I think like, as noted above. Arrows pointing direction and the wind speed as the feathers.

 

[glaufman]

Went and doubled my dock lines today, wrapped the main, double tied the tiller, moved boat to center of 2 boat slip, and pushed out from the dock a couple feet... thankfully no slip mate this year... Beware the "I" storms...

 

[glaufman]

Looks like windy calling for max winds here near low tide wed morning... Until they issue predictions for my local (south shore of li) how can I take a stab at size and timing of storm surge?

 

[JamesG161]

Until they issue predictions for my local (south shore of li) how can I take a stab at size and timing of storm surge?

This is the composite wind forecast for your area. The worst time seen is Tuesday afternoon.
Windy as forecasted

I will link the best Tidal Surge forecast tomorrow in early afternoon, but by just the wind, and not the tides for Tuesday, the winds will push water inshore.
You local marina may have more information.
Jim...

 

[GSBNY]

Looks like windy calling for max winds here near low tide wed morning... Until they issue predictions for my local (south shore of li) how can I take a stab at size and timing of storm surge?

The surge update is out now for the Great South Bay measured in Lindenhurst at the end of Wellwood Ave.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary
TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE
DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD
FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
05/12 AM 3.2/ 3.7 1.8/ 2.2 1.8/ 2.2 2-3 MIN-MOD

 

[JamesG161]

I will link the best Tidal Surge forecast tomorrow

This is a real time station nearby and you can search the NOAA station nearest you.
Tide Predictions - NOAA Tides & Currents

Jim...

PS: For general station search...
Tide Predictions - NOAA Tides & Currents

 

[JamesG161]

The National News just reported this...
Isaias it strengthening and the Storm Surge along the path will be

One to Five feet!

Which one did you hear?
Jim...

 

[kappykaplan]

Isaias is strengthening

Not terribly surprising since it's getting some energy from the Gulf Stream . . . .

 

[JamesG161]

Although Isaias is still struggling in and out of the magic 70 mph Hurricane status, we will continue with information.

This the current Hurricane Hunter mission showing 990 millbars as center.

Buoy number 41004 is up and running with a camera too!
NDBC - Station 41004 Recent Data

Taken on 8/1/20 or calm before the storm. No recent pictures.
But here is the data now.

Showing the storm just passed by.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

Here is an active camera from Buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals, NC

NDBC - Station 41013 Recent Data
Sea state picking up and HH's show strongest part of their flight level.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

This is the Hurricane Hunters Drop buoy at Maximum Wind spot

Tip: The area between the Green and Red curves is the Driving force for intensity [RH relative humidity]

Note: They are flying low level or where the pressure is 700 millibars or hectoPascals [hPa] or their flight level max winds.

Credit all to Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits
Even the HH's use his rendering of the data.
Jim...

 

[shemandr]

Well, it looks like Isaias is an unusual storm. It wasn't that much here in Jensen Beach. It made landfall in Virgina as a low level hurricane. And now in NY it was powerful enough to blow a tree over at my step daughter's house. She said it was the worst storm in memory and she grew up in Ohio and was near the Zenia Tornado! The storm is now blasting through NE with a tornado watch in North NH and TWC reports the storm's speed as 40 knots! This for a storm that should have died in NJ. It's said Tropical weather is fed by warm water. Once a significant part of the storm is over land they're supposed to weaken. Yet this storm was stronger North than when it was here. Where is the energy coming from?

 

[Captain Larry-DH]

I lost a tree at my house, too. Fortunately no damage to anything else, but I'm a bit heartbroken to lose a mature healthy tree.
It's still raging in Stonington Harbor. I hope that sailboat upwind doesn't break loose! His blown out headsail doesn't look like it's going to hold up much longer. Ledge light in nearby New London is currently reporting winds at 45 gusting to 57.
Here's a view from my boat