TS Irma was being noteworthy by world forecasters last Sunday.
This 2017 season, African storm "spin offs" have been formed very South of the normal birth area. Two storms, Don and Harvey, followed the this formation path. I will avoid the Harvey discussion, since the news will keep you informed, but note that we are passing midseason for 2017 [ Solar Energy in waters in Southern Caribbean is High.]
_______
The HIGH pressure fronts currently over Bahamas and Carolinas with push TS Irma and keep it on the Southern track. This will move this very intense storm into the Antilles by Wednesday.
Two more HIGH's over CO and KS [ the ones pushing Harvey NE] will tend to shield the Gulf from Hurricane Irma as it passes South of Cuba.
_______
The Bad News is that part of the Caribbean Has a lot of Storm fuel or HEAT.
Here is NOAA's Heat [not temperature} which includes the top ≈20 feet of water.
They use the term Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential [TCHP]
Hopefully that link works, if not then click on LOOP on this one.
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Loop
________
Last season, the forecasters missed the intensity predictions when storms passed this far south. They had slim information on deeper water temperatures, which info has improved this season. The islands just north of Venezuela were considered Desert Islands or little tropical storm activity.
Jim...
PS: Although this is not a consolation for TX and LA et.al., note on that link how Harvey removed Gulf Heat along the Gulf Coast line.
This 2017 season, African storm "spin offs" have been formed very South of the normal birth area. Two storms, Don and Harvey, followed the this formation path. I will avoid the Harvey discussion, since the news will keep you informed, but note that we are passing midseason for 2017 [ Solar Energy in waters in Southern Caribbean is High.]
_______
The HIGH pressure fronts currently over Bahamas and Carolinas with push TS Irma and keep it on the Southern track. This will move this very intense storm into the Antilles by Wednesday.
Two more HIGH's over CO and KS [ the ones pushing Harvey NE] will tend to shield the Gulf from Hurricane Irma as it passes South of Cuba.
_______
The Bad News is that part of the Caribbean Has a lot of Storm fuel or HEAT.
Here is NOAA's Heat [not temperature} which includes the top ≈20 feet of water.
They use the term Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential [TCHP]
Hopefully that link works, if not then click on LOOP on this one.
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Loop
________
Last season, the forecasters missed the intensity predictions when storms passed this far south. They had slim information on deeper water temperatures, which info has improved this season. The islands just north of Venezuela were considered Desert Islands or little tropical storm activity.
Jim...
PS: Although this is not a consolation for TX and LA et.al., note on that link how Harvey removed Gulf Heat along the Gulf Coast line.