• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Eta... Cat 4

Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I am seeing some local panic setting in on "Crazy Eta".

It now appears to be hanging around in the Gulf , raining itself to a death, on...

November 14th

Eta Dies.jpeg


How does a Storm "Rain itself to death"?

This time of year the Gulf has very little Solar Heat left.

ohc_aQG3_latest_natl-2.gif


A Stationary Storm cools itself by evaporative cooling.:cool:

Jim...
 
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Oct 22, 2014
20,995
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
ETA is one of those storm that might sit there for awhile. Huff and puff. Rain on your ‘across the gulf’ sail. Or help you ride the wind on the north and east edges. There may be squalls near the storm center. Not to be ignored.

Not yet a turn your back on that one.

Keep a weather eye is the sailors phrase.

Remember that saying “Red sky before night Sailors delight. Red sky in the morning Sailors take warning!”
 
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Jan 1, 2006
7,040
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
Weather.gov has it moving South even though the cone still shows it turning North. Those Super Computers must be smokin' by now. Seems like the storm likes that Western Carribean area. It keeps going back there. Like a fighter jet goes to a tanker to refuel.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
It keeps going back there. Like a fighter jet goes to a tanker to refuel.
Good comparison.:thumbup:

If Eta had been in the Gulf in August, there was plenty of Heat Fuel in the Gulf. Then Eta would have grown big time.

This is the Gulf Heat on Aug 15 and it had fueled at least 5 storms ealier.:facepalm:
ohc_aQG3_2020_228.gif


Please note the change in Heat Fuel from post #22 above.
Jim...
 
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Oct 22, 2014
20,995
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
While JIM continues to deal with the rescue of his boat, I thought I would provide a little update on ETA. The storm has edged off of Cuba northern coast. Back over water there has been some low level building. ETA is still a Tropical Storm. If it hangs out in the area a little longer it will have some fuel to develop. It means we can not ignore ETA as we might an Ex. That said the current thinking has the storm moving in a northerly direction. While moving north across the Gulf there is a strong upper level high pressure moving against the storm from the west. This has the effect of cutting the top off the storm. We are seeing the upper level moisture being pushed eastward. Southern and Central Florida is looking at heavy rain fall for the next few days. If the lower center of storm continues north and off shore then the winds will be in the 40 knot range on the Florida West coast. A potential for surge along the central coast of Florida is being forecast.
Be Alert to your local weather services.
1FEAA05F-6E37-412F-9E70-CF4EC4E003F3.png
 
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Oct 22, 2014
20,995
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
This is a moving target and we will keep our eye on it for the next couple of days.
Hope the season will soon end.
 
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Oct 22, 2014
20,995
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Predictions are predictions You need to be your own best judge. Remember the message given Indiana Jones in "Search for the Holy Grail"
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