How can people continue working during a “lock down”?

[dlochner]

59th day

What do I win ? ? ? ?

Was I supposed to offer a prize?????

How about the satisfaction that you correctly answered a question that many people get wrong? It might even qualify you for a job at Google.

 

[dlochner]

Wrong approach. That is called Gamblers Ruin.

I think you are referring to the Gambler's Fallacy.

 

[JamesG161]

My Graduate School course was called Gaming Theory.
That book referred to Gambler's Ruin betting theory.
or basically in two outcome Heads/Tails Red/Black.
You make more money by "Let it ride" or Powers of 2.
You climb at exponential rate, but lose all at once... Thus Betting was called Gambler's Ruin.

However, if you use Fibonacci Series betting, you approach Gamblers Ruins level money winning in that series > 28 and still have a profit if you lose.

The Gambler Fallacy says
"I just hit Head 10 times, so the next one must be Heads"
Where the odds are the same 50:50 on the next flip.

Why would they teach such a course?

We are alway trying to optimize the outcomes of any project.
Maximum Profits at minimum costs.

Rock/Paper/Scissor ... Odd/Even coins .... Pick a number 1-100 etc.
Jim...

 

[Will Gilmore]

A quick quiz.

The number of virus infections doubles every day for 60 days at which time everyone will be infected. On what day will half the population be infected?

According to the Chinese CDC, symptoms are only mild in over 80% of the infected patients and mild symptoms only last about 10 days with a typical incubation period of 5-6 days, but as much as 14. So, if on day 60, the final 50% of the population gets infected, those first infected from day 1 to day 45 are cured. That leads me to conclude that day 60 is the only day in which at least 50% of the population is infected.

-Will (Dragonfly)

 

[Ralph Johnstone]

How about the satisfaction that you correctly answered a question that many people get wrong?

I'm always more satisfied with money .

 

[dlochner]

My Graduate School course was called Gaming Theory.
That book referred to Gambler's Ruin betting theory.
or basically in two outcome Heads/Tails Red/Black.
You make more money by "Let it ride" or Powers of 2.
You climb at exponential rate, but lose all at once... Thus Betting was called Gambler's Ruin.

However, if you use Fibonacci Series betting, you approach Gamblers Ruins level money winning in that series > 28 and still have a profit if you lose.

The Gambler Fallacy says
"I just hit Head 10 times, so the next one must be Heads"
Where the odds are the same 50:50 on the next flip.

Why would they teach such a course?

We are alway trying to optimize the outcomes of any project.
Maximum Profits at minimum costs.

Rock/Paper/Scissor ... Odd/Even coins .... Pick a number 1-100 etc.
Jim...

I didn't take Gaming Theory, we learned about cognitive biases. Gaming theory appears to teach you how to win. Cognitive biases teach you how to not screw up your thinking, in this case how not to lose you money on a craps table.

 

[dlochner]

According to the Chinese CDC, symptoms are only mild in over 80% of the infected patients and mild symptoms only last about 10 days with a typical incubation period of 5-6 days, but as much as 14. So, if on day 60, the final 50% of the population gets infected, those first infected from day 1 to day 45 are cured. That leads me to conclude that day 60 is the only day in which at least 50% of the population is infected.

-Will (Dragonfly)

Will you're over thinking the question. The question didn't include any information on the kind of virus, and didn't ask if the people were infected and cured, just on what day would half the population be infected, not have a current infection.

 

[dlochner]

I'm always more satisfied with money .

OK then, the check will in the mail.

 

[JamesG161]

It was very interesting to understand the idea of a "Fair coin" or "Fair dice" or "Fair wheel"
versus
Cognitive bias

True story...
I watched a Casino Roulette wheel hit 26 Black, 7 times in 10 spins.

What would you do?

I bet 4 way split with 26 Black and won $400 in the next 4 spins.
Was that Cognitive Bias or "Broken wheel"?
Jim...

 

[dlochner]

I bet 4 way split with 26 Black and won $400 in the next 4 spins.
Was that Cognitive Bias or "Broken wheel"?
Jim...

Ya got lucky.

 

[JamesG161]

The house changed the "spinner" and I left the table.
Ans: Broken Wheel

26 Black never repeated in the next hour.
Jim...

 

[dlochner]

It was very interesting to understand the idea of a "Fair coin" or "Fair dice" or "Fair wheel"
versus
Cognitive bias

True story...
I watched a Casino Roulette wheel hit 26 Black, 7 times in 10 spins.

What would you do?

I bet 4 way split with 26 Black and won $400 in the next 4 spins.
Was that Cognitive Bias or "Broken wheel"?
Jim...

One of things our brains seem to be hard wired to not deal with very well is randomness. We see patterns that do not exist, assign meaning to randomly paired events, see patterns where there are none, and interpret as complete images that are not complete.

Some of those biases are functional to a certain extent, say being a pattern in stars and naming them to facilitate remembering them. Others, like the gambler's fallacy, not so much.

One biases that is particularly problematic, especially today, is the fundamental attribution error. In this error, people tend ascribe positive attributes to people who are like us and assign negative attributes to those who are not like us for the same behavior. A variant of the FAB is attributing the cause of one's success and failures. "I am successful because of my hard work, my failures are due factors outside my control or bad luck." However, if someone unlike me is not successful it is because "they didn't work hard enough" If the other is successful, it is because "they got lucky or got a break." Needless to say, this kind of thinking leads to all kinds of "isms" that can coalesce groups but are ultimately dysfunctional in society.

Now back to sailing.

 

[JamesG161]

Now back to sailing.

Ok...
How do we make sure the odds are in our favor of successful Sailing trip?

I just read a thread about a stuck throttle cable causing a reversing crash.

Ans: We improve our odds by Maintenance and understanding cause and effects.

I often comment about Safety on SBO and my crew gets a Safety Lecture from me, before I leave the dock.

That is my Cognitive Bias.
Jim...

 

[TomY]

Example #2: House painter: This is almost self-explanatory. A single person can paint a house by themself; however, depending on heights, safety requirements, and what have you, a second person may be required. However, a job like this would be easy to do without viral contamination.

Worker (or contractor?) Approval: How to have the worker maintain separation? Describe the work process and requirements for viral protection in a GUIDE Specification. Have the worker review the specification and adjust the Guide Specification it to fit the job. The [City][County][State] Safety Health inspector/person would review and reject/approve, or approve subject to conditions.
Inspections: The Approval Authority would have inspection authority to ensure the work is performed as required. That could potentially be contracted out to a safety inspector so as to not impact the Approval Authority office.

Our county is using the sledge hammer approach to kill a fly and impacting the economy by not allowing anyone to work (except the exempt or work-from-home ones) and this shut-down will last for many more weeks. But does it have to? Also, the County is not policing or controlling people's movements like those in China, Singapore, South Korea, or some other areas, so as a result the infections are continuing to rise and once peaked, will last longer.
Personally, I would feel much more comfortable if the local governments would do a better job of keeping people from unnecessarily running around AND, as the same time, allow those that can work without spreading the contagion, to do so. By not doing so will cost everybody big time. Like the oil advertisement says: "You can pay me now, or you can pay me later."

This won't be the last contagion so by coming up with an improved modus operandi we'll be more prepared for the next one.
What do you guys think???
Edit: I plan to sent a post to our County Commissioner so if there is something that can be added it would be appreciated.

I can speak to your general construction question having spent much of my working life in the field. Intentions right now are good - but in general, I don't think you CAN work general construction trades, in this pandemic, without increasing the danger of transmission above that which can be accomplished by closing down construction projects. Even the small ones are tough. The only way to enforce safe measures are to limit a project to one person (that is what my daughters company is doing in Manhattan - she works from home in project management).

There is a construction project operating next door to me(a new library). The contractor is following Maine's CDC guidelines, or so they think. But it is rare that one person doesn't need another person help, when you do almost anything in construction. Maybe you can stay away from people but you'll be picking up supplies, working in the trail of others, etc.

This morning I watched the crew that is putting up the wall wrap to prepare for masons that will lay bricks. Maybe you stay away from each other,...most of the day. If you've ever set staging you know what it takes. 6 guys all WITHIN a 6 foot space.

Anyone infected? Anyone they mixed with in the last 14 days, infected? How about the 12,000 people those people mixed with in the last 14 days? Anybody touch the staging, ayiyi,...Do you see a mask? At least the girl gets it.

 

[Daveinet]

But, one of the problems you have is most stay at home orders also allow for work that is required to maintain or prevent substantial loss, such as freezing food for restaurants or selling it off. Construction sites often have wood exposed. If the wood is not covered in a reasonable amount of time, it will rot. So exterior construction should qualify, while most interior construction should not. Regardless of what anyone says, UV from the sun will kill it. The question is exposer rates from the weak source of the sun. It may need all day to be effective. So I would suggest anything outdoors will have reduced risk, but of course not mitigated risk.

 

[jssailem]

I took my wife, who was saying she is suffering from cabin fever, out for a drive on Sunday. As we drove through the farm fields it was interesting to see the farmers and their crew out in the fields on the first sunny day setting up the hop fields. No masks yet they are out in the fields self working/isolated.

 

[Hunter216]

I read an article that Dairy farmers are having to dump milk down the drain as demand has dropped. Ripple effect, restaurants etc, close, grocery stores limit quantities that people can buy in reaction to food hoarding - temporary empty shelves, dairy farmers reduce production to save money so they can survive or simply go out of business, so supply is reduced, the threat ends, demand goes up, price skyrockets.

I appreciate that this type of ebb and flow happens all the time when things are normal but we need to take extra care of our food chain right now.

 

[jssailem]

Yes you are right. There was a news report in Illinois. It is happening in the Bay Area and North Cal. A major bottler has decided to close his plant. They produced 60 million gallons a year. I’ve spent the past 6days sourcing supply for former clients.

The economic fall out is still unfelt. It is a sleeping dragon I fear.

 

[Hunter216]

Yes you are right. There was a news report in Illinois. It is happening in the Bay Area and North Cal. A major bottler has decided to close his plant. They produced 60 million gallons a year. I’ve spent the past 6days sourcing supply for former clients.

The economic fall out is still unfelt. It is a sleeping dragon I fear.

The story that I referenced said one farmer was forced to dump 12,000 litres of perfectly good milk. Not as if you can tell the cows to just stop.
Nimble thinking would create a new pathway for the milk to get to families who are out of work and applying for gov assistance so they can afford buy food. Maybe gov buys the milk and gives it FREE to those in need. Hmmm

 

[dlochner]

Maybe gov buys the milk and gives it FREE to those in need. Hmmm

Well that would be the S word. Actually, indirectly the Feds were doing this with subsidized and free lunch programs throughout the country. Each kid got an 8 0z carton of milk at least once a day. A typically 400 student elementary school would then consume between 400 and 800 cartons per day for 180 days a year. That's 100 to 200 gallons of milk per day. In my district with 20 elementary schools that's 2,000 to 4,000 gallons a day. Now that schools are closed, we are only providing meals 3 times a week and many students are not taking advantage of them. So, just the reduction of school lunches will hit the dairy industry hard.

I did my part today, bought a quart of yogurt and a quart of Half & Half.