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How can people continue working during a “lock down”?

Jul 1, 1998
3,045
Hunter Legend 35 Poulsbo/Semiahmoo WA
Some have commented about grocery shopping. Just wondering ....
Told my wife, "hey, after everybody has pawed over the produce section and you come along to pick something out, picking up that orange or apple to see if it is okay then put it back and check out another one, ... how many people have done that? Plus, oh my God, they BREATHED over them! Gaaa...choke! And we touch them???

Question: (I didn't get an answer from her. This is serious! Of course it is!) For the oranges, apples, grapes, (etc.), can they be run through the dishwasher rinse cycle???
 
Jul 1, 1998
3,045
Hunter Legend 35 Poulsbo/Semiahmoo WA
Google "normalized deviance"
That will be part of the answer.
The other part is time.
Immediate effective response is required for control. Taking the time to work out a case-by-case program by people who have little or no training and relying in a world of clear thinking, aware and informed populations, just isn't going to yield strong results. History should prove that.
Will - I really agree with you. Isolation, at the moment, is the only thing that will work, so far as I know about this.

However, what I'm seeing in the, shall we say, "exempt" situations, in many cases like grocery stores (any store that sells groceriess, including Costco, Target, haven't been to Walmart), is ALMOST like any other store before C-19 (last time I was in a store was 1.5 weeks ago and counting). The "keep your distance" and other related safeguards just don't seem to be very good, or not good at all. Our county (Kitsap) doesn't seem to be doing any oversight and are leaving it up to the businesses, then the businesses seem to be basically leaving it up to the governments except, possibly, for some "lip service" (some say "eye wash") to make it look good.

In the case of Washington State's edict to not allow construction (except for emergency projects, like a city water well), It seems to me the construction protections can be MUCH better than those found in places like "grocery stores". No doubt some other non-emergency businesses can also have safe operations, too. I've been using construction as. an example because I'm familiar with it and, since this afternoon, because that is what our Governor has specifically stated as something that is not allowed. Plus, it is a very, very big ticket item! For everybody; worker, owner, contractor, city, county, and state. Plus, has the propensity to cause a legal mess if work is stopped.
 
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Jan 11, 2014
5,609
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
Told my wife, "hey, after everybody has pawed over the produce section and you come along to pick something out, picking up that orange or apple to see if it is okay then put it back and check out another one, ... how many people have done that? Plus, oh my God, they BREATHED over them! Gaaa...choke! And we touch them???
I hear you that. The only fresh food we buy are vegetables that can be washed and peeled or ones we intend to cook. No leaf lettuce for us. When we wash we use lots of running water, a little soap, a vegetable brush and when were done a quick spritz of rubbing alcohol. (The alcohol evaporates, so there is no risk of alcohol poisoning.)

As I think about my behavior and what I am willing to do and not do, I think of it in terms of probability and then the consequences. The risk of coming in contact with a sufficient quantity of C-19 virus to cause me to become ill vs. the positive outcome of my behavior, such as buying essentials at the grocery store like food and beer.

The math that addresses this risk is conditional probability, that is the math that determines the probability of several events occurring in a sequence or together. So the question is what is the chance that I see someone in the grocery store, who has C-19, who spews sufficient virus to cause an infection, that is close enough to me that I contract the infection?

In my county, there are as of yesterday, 301 active cases of C-19 out of a population of ~470,000. The odds of randomly running into one of them is less than 1/1000. To account for error and that not all have been tested, we can assume there are 10 times the known active cases, so there are 3,000. The odds of randomly selecting one ill person is 3000/470,000 or a little less than 1/100. Assume there are 100 people in the store, then it is likely that one of them is infected, and there is a 1% chance that I might have contact with that person. Let's further assume that I come within 6 feet of 20 people in the store. The probability that one of those 20 people is the infected person is .002 or 2/1000. This is conditional probability, it is calculated by multiplying the first probability by the second probability, thus .01 * .2 = .002, or 2/1000.

This seems counter intuitive and that's a well known cognitive bias. Humans tend over estimate the probability of two independent (unrelated) events occurring at the same time. This is an example of the conjunction fallacy.

I am not in any way advocating not following CDC guidelines, they are important in order to reduce or slow the spread of the virus. I am advocating that we approach the risks and threat in a rational and informed manner. Part of that approach requires us to be cognizant of our cognitive biases. In the example I used, if I maintain a safe social distance of 6 feet, the probability of becoming infected gets even smaller. And on those occasions when I leave the house to shop, I sanitize the cart, sanitize my hands and move quickly and deliberately through the store to get what I need and get out. Whatever I pick up I buy, so in the very unlikely event I am shedding the virus I do not leave the virus behind and to reduce the chance that I pick up the virus.

We all need to stay safe and sane through this.

Hope you find this helpful.
 
Feb 21, 2013
975
Hunter 46 Point Richmond, CA
During this "shelter-in-place" there are still a significant number of essential businesses besides gas stations, grocery, convenience and liquor stores, banks, laundromats/laundry services, pharmacies, medical doctor offices, hospitals, essential government services, fire and law enforcement operating - oil refineries and other energy producers (natural gas, power plant to name a few), utility services (water, garbage, cable, internet), food processors, paper paper good manufactures, automotive and appliance repair shops, landscapers, hopefully the social security office (just started social security and Medicare Part B), farms, UPS and Fed Express (thank goodness for home delivery), etc. You might find this link interesting:

 
Jan 19, 2010
8,298
Hunter 26 Charleston
.... the positive outcome of my behavior, such as buying essentials at the grocery store like food and beer.
I heard on the radio yesterday that alcohol sales have gone up 54% since this started a few weeks ago. :yikes:
How much of that is stocking up and how much is self-medicating?:facepalm:

Oh well... to much to think about, I'll go have a :beer::biggrin:
 
Jan 11, 2014
5,609
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
Defining essential services is a bit subjective. NY is considering or has determined that landscaping is a non-essential service. Well, that may be true for many and for years it was for me. However, last fall I learned the hard way that I am deathly allergic to bee stings. If I get stung, I get an ambulance ride to the ER and hopefully I'll survive it. Cutting the grass and yard work is now a high risk activity and hiring someone to do it is essential for health and well being. :(
 
Jan 11, 2014
5,609
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
I heard on the radio yesterday that alcohol sales have gone up 54% since this started a few weeks ago. :yikes:
How much of that is stocking up and how much is self-medicating?:facepalm:

Oh well... to much to think about, I'll go have a :beer::biggrin:
Just wait until you see the increase in births next fall. :biggrin:
 
Jan 19, 2010
8,298
Hunter 26 Charleston
Cutting the grass and yard work is now a high risk activity and hiring someone to do it is essential for health and well being. :(
I would not consider cutting grass the same thing as landscaping. And if you hired some teen to cut your grass (try craigslist) how would anyone know that it is not a relative? And how would it be a risk if you didn't physically interact. I think your conscience would be clear on that one. And if you did get "busted" the fine is what? $200? That is cheap health insurance considering how deadly this is for you. And I doubt any judge would convict you if you challenged it in court as essential for your particular case and frankly I doubt the cop who might make the bust would not accept your explanation and walk away. They probably have a lot more real issues to deal with anyway.

I have been very impressed with how people have voluntarily started social distancing here in Alabama. We don't yet have the strict mandates that many other states have but all the same, people stay apart, talk to each other from afar (on on zoom) etc. And people have been flexible.
 
Feb 21, 2013
975
Hunter 46 Point Richmond, CA
..............NY is considering or has determined that landscaping is a non-essential service............... . :(
Landscaping includes includes tree trimming around power lines and weed abatement to mitigate the public risk of fire escalation, loss of life and property. In California weed abatement is required by city ordinances and that starts in April and continues throughout the fire sean from May - October.
 
Oct 22, 2014
12,417
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
Worst April Fools prank.. only not a prank. The supplier of dairy products, bottling 60 million gallons of milk yearly announced “We are firing 381 employees and closing the plant.” No more milk for you. Contracts that I sold to them (military and hospitals) may be without milk in 15 days. Have spent the past 48 hours trying to put fingers in the leaks.

I fear there will be fewer sources of milk for Bay Area residents in the near future. Dairy farmers are all ready getting notices to pour out their milk there is not enough Storage for their raw milk at the plants.

This could get ugly before it gets better.
 
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Jul 1, 1998
3,045
Hunter Legend 35 Poulsbo/Semiahmoo WA
I would not consider cutting grass the same thing as landscaping. And if you hired some teen to cut your grass (try craigslist) how would anyone know that it is not a relative?
Ewe!

I mean, hire a sheep! Perfectly legal as they aren't human.
 
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Jan 11, 2014
5,609
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
Ewe!

I mean, hire a sheep! Perfectly legal as they aren't human.
That might work, but the local code enforcement people would probably frown on it, not allowed to keep live stock in the 'burbs.

But, hold on, maybe I could get a sheep as an emotional support animal to help me deal with the trauma I suffered last year. Hmmm, my wife is psychiatric social worker, may she could write the letter. Time to get a :beer: and think about it.
 
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Oct 19, 2017
6,320
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
My wife and I are just getting started in our new homestead venture. We farm 5 acres, acquired the 5 acres and house next door. We raise useless chickens and expensive specialty turkeys that feed the wildlife more than our customers. We forage wild fruit and veggies that we then make into jellies and jams and syrups. We just extracted our first real quantity of honey from our bees and signed up for our second year of state farmer's markets and craft fairs. We make art that we sell at these fairs, but the market lead is to concentrating on our home-kitchen food products.

This is our second full year in business. We have signed up and paid for three times, or better, the number of markets than last year. All our market outlets have cancelled for the first half of this coming Spring and Summer.

We just rushed to make up a large amount of stock, especially wild pickled elderberry syrup that is suppose to be the best thing for boosting your immune system and guarding against colds and flu. Now, no outlet.

This actually leaves us in a position to start building our online presence and building the Website we've held the URL for the lat two years, but have done nothing with. My fear is that at the end of this, if we get it all in place, as we hope, we won't be able to meet demand. We were very well recieved at the local markets, but with a license that allows us to sell and ship out of state, who knows how many days of picking elderberries we will have to spend. And everyone seems to want honey too.

So, all I can say is this time may be hard and it may be a disruption, but it also presents opportunities.

-Will (Dragonfly )
 
Oct 1, 2007
1,511
Hunter 44DS Pt. Judith
My wife and I are just getting started in our new homestead venture. We farm 5 acres, acquired the 5 acres and house next door. We raise useless chickens and expensive specialty turkeys that feed the wildlife more than our customers. We forage wild fruit and veggies that we then make into jellies and jams and syrups. We just extracted our first real quantity of honey from our bees and signed up for our second year of state farmer's markets and craft fairs. We make art that we sell at these fairs, but the market lead is to concentrating on our home-kitchen food products.

This is our second full year in business. We have signed up and paid for three times, or better, the number of markets than last year. All our market outlets have cancelled for the first half of this coming Spring and Summer.

We just rushed to make up a large amount of stock, especially wild pickled elderberry syrup that is suppose to be the best thing for boosting your immune system and guarding against colds and flu. Now, no outlet.

This actually leaves us in a position to start building our online presence and building the Website we've held the URL for the lat two years, but have done nothing with. My fear is that at the end of this, if we get it all in place, as we hope, we won't be able to meet demand. We were very well recieved at the local markets, but with a license that allows us to sell and ship out of state, who knows how many days of picking elderberries we will have to spend. And everyone seems to want honey too.

So, all I can say is this time may be hard and it may be a disruption, but it also presents opportunities.

-Will (Dragonfly )
Great ! I had aspirations many years ago. I have a full, long shelf of Mother Earth News from back in the day. I have read "The Good Life " so many times the pages are falling out.
Wishing you the best
 
Jan 11, 2014
5,609
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
Try Etsy, Amazon and ebay for online sales. Local and regional food co-ops are another. Look for farm to table restaurants (when they open again).

And look at the brightside, you can always eat your stock. ;)
 
Oct 19, 2017
6,320
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
@Will Gilmore

Try setting up an online market place.
Well, we have an Etsy page and a FB, we just haven't had time until this quarantine, to promote it. See? Opportunities.

Maybe there's that book you've been thinking of writing. That model you've wanted to build or that instrument you've been interested in learning (My SBO Blues needs a tune).

We are still very busy, other than not going to markets, Spring planting has already started, more bees are on order, so are replacement turkeys and meat chickens. Otherwise, youtube salsa dance practice would be seen in our livingroom. Maybe after I finish smoking this pork butt. :p

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
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