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high water?

Oct 22, 2014
10,671
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
You can see a clear upward trend in temperature even though the solar output actually has had somewhat of a downward trend during the same time. You cant explain this if you ignore the human influence.
Walt.
I understand that you are in the group of concerned citizen about the human influence as causation for the increase in global temperatures.

if I accept the quote regarding Roy Spencer as being a reliable source of data and information. Then I should also read other quotes and conclusions by this NOAA recognized scientist.


Concluding Remarks

Climate researchers do not know nearly as much about the causes of climate change as they profess. We have a pretty good understanding of how the climate system works on average…but the reasons for small, long-term changes in climate system are still extremely uncertain.

The total amount of CO2 humans have added to the atmosphere in the last 100 years has upset the radiative energy budget of the Earth by only 1%. How the climate system responds to that small “poke” is very uncertain.

I encourage you to read all of his questions and answers to climate - temperature change - and human action as a cause.
 
Jun 1, 2007
3,339
Macgregor 26S Hobie TI, Capri Coronado 15 Denver, Colorado
Thank you very much for using a reference on this subject!!! Hope that continues here as the conversation will be a lot more intelligent.

The page referenced above says the CO2 concentration was 390 PPM which would date the article to be around 2009 - 2010 (CO2 was 413 PPM June 2019). Dr Spencer has another more up to date summary (2019) here from GW 101 « Roy Spencer, PhD Dr Spencer is the guy Fox News goes to and at least he is no longer denying that the planet has warmed. He is still trying to suggest that natural cycles are at least somewhat involved in the warming.

Anyhow... thank you for posting with a reference.. hopefully that will continue in this discussion.
 
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Likes: TomY
Oct 19, 2017
5,295
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
You can see a clear upward trend in temperature even though the solar output actually has had somewhat of a downward trend during the same time.
I actually see very little correlation between those two graphs. The approximate peaks and troughs in solar energy, according to the solar output graph is regular at 1978, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2002, 2008 and 2015. The lowers are also getting higher.
for those same years, the
global lower atmosphere temperatures don't even hint at that trend. '79 was very low and moving up. A complete contradiction to the solar chart. 1986 was a very low trough that matched the solar chart, but there were two peaks between those two periods that aren't reflectedin the solar chart. The largest spike was in 1998, starting in '97 and ending in 2000. The solar chart shows that while period on an upward trend. The low ends at a higher solar energy level than the high.
If, as Jim says and I think he's right, it would be a matter of hours before the oceans began to freeze if the sun's energy just stopped, there would be no indication, between those two charts, of any lag between solar energy change and global lower atmosphere temperature change. Reason certainly leads to the conclusion that our global temperatures are predominantly controlled by the Sun, but those two charts tell a very different story.
The solar cycle appears to be a fairly regular 11-12 year cycle, but the Global Lower Atmosphere Temperatures appear on a rather irregular cycle that's more like, 3,5,3,5,3,5,#,&,?,3,3,3,2,2. My conclusion, based purely on looking at these two charts is, there is no relationship between solar energy output and the Earth's temperature.

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
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Aug 2, 2010
339
J-Boat J/88 Cobourg
Last weeks mean out flow: 8750 cubic meters per second
Last weeks mean in flow: 10120 cubic meters per second

The numbers are going the wrong way. :(
I have not yet grasped all the elements affecting our world and Lake Ontario in particular but the numbers above are what I can understand but have no real grasp of. What is the average outflow over time and what are the maximum numbers? I have heard lots of references to a new program to control Lake Ontario levels and have always wondered if that program were contributing to then high water levels.
 
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May 25, 2012
2,247
john alden caravelle 42 sturgeon bay, wis
November through February are the best months to lower the lakes. unless their is lots of percipitation and vast ice coverage. evaporation on any one lake can exceed 20 times the flow of the niagara falls
 
Jan 11, 2014
4,420
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
I have not yet grasped all the elements affecting our world and Lake Ontario in particular but the numbers above are what I can understand but have no real grasp of. What is the average outflow over time and what are the maximum numbers? I have heard lots of references to a new program to control Lake Ontario levels and have always wondered if that program were contributing to then high water levels.
The water level dynamics on Lake Ontario are fairly straight forward. Around 80-85% of the water that enters the Lake comes through the Niagara River and is uncontrolled. Any rain that falls in Duluth, Minnesota eventually makes it way to Lake Ontario. If you look at a watershed map for the Great Lakes, you'll see that all of the water that falls on Michigan ends up in the lakes. Thus, when the Midwest experiences a wet season or multiple seasons a year or two later that water ends up in Lake Ontario.

Water leaves Lake Ontario via 2 paths, evaporation and through the St. Lawrence. A good portion of that evaporated water returns to the lake via lake effect snow and showers and much of it runs back into the lake each spring. Very little water is lost through evaporation in the summer because there is little difference between air and water temperature. Early winter is a different story. The water is relatively warm and the air cold and dry, so there is considerable evaporative water loss. It forms clouds and snow, a lot of snow. Snow falls measured in feet are not uncommon downwind of the lake. The process is very similar to the fair weather cumulus clouds we see in the summer.

The other path way is the St Lawrence and the primary control is the Moses-Saunders Dam. It serves several purposes, control water levels downstream to maintain safe navigation, generate power, and control water levels upstream, i.e., Lake Ontario and some small "lakes" behind the dam.

The maximum outflow from the dam is about 10, 500 cubic meters/second. In the spring the inflow to the lake can exceed that value. When the inflow exceeds the outflow the lake rises. Lowering the lake level takes a lot of time, at best a couple of inches a month.

It would seem to be a simple solution to just let the dam rip and open all the gates, except for a several factors. Letting too much water out too quickly in the late winter and spring can cause ice jams with flooding and shoreline damage. Montreal lies at the confluence of the Ottawa and St Lawrence Rivers, the Ottawa River is uncontrolled. When Northern Quebec has a lot of precipitation, water levels rise in Montreal. In both 2017 and 2019 Montreal was flooded by several feet. Increasing the flow out of the Moses Saunders dam makes the flooding in Montreal worse. Increasing the outflow on the St. Lawrence increases the currents in the river making navigation more difficult and dangerous. This affects the safety of ships, i.e. more likely to run aground as they try to navigate the narrow channels and it affects billions of dollars of international trade. The IJC and the St Lawrence Seaway Commission have paused seaway traffic to allow higher outflows, however, this affects millions of jobs along the Seaway and through throughout the midwest in both the US and Canada. Water levels near the dam will decrease faster than those further upstream. Early last month the IJC had to reduce outflows to raise the water level in the impoundment lakes behind the dams so marinas and boat owners could get their boats out of the water.

The new plan, 2014b, called for slightly higher lake levels and slightly lower lake levels to more approximate the natural variation of the lake if there were no dams. The variation was on the order or 4-6 inches higher and 4-6 inches lower. This would allow flooding of the marshes along the river and lake which would have beneficial effects on the local environment.

The numbers reported by the IJC this week indicate that last week that ~ 1500 cubic meters of water entered the lake that did not leave the lake. That's a lot of water. The IJC anticipates raising the outflow to 8920 cubic meters/second this week.

My take on the problem is that IJC is between a rock and a hard place trying to balance all of the various interests along the Lake and Seaway. They might not have been aggressive enough in lowering the Lake last fall, but that would only account for a small amount of the excess water in the lake. And, if they were able and had lowered the lake enough to prevent the flooding it would have adversely affected downstream navigation. If the lake had been lowered enough to prevent flooding and we had a dry winter and spring would there have been enough water?

The situation is not helped by grandstanding politicians (that would be you Andrew). I understand the concerns of property owners and businesses along the lake. However, if you own property that is subject to erosion and flooding, then that is a risk you take when you buy the property. You can't mess with Mother Nature.
 
Jan 11, 2014
4,420
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
The view of the Lake this morning in KIngston. -4deg C. Looks like evaporation to me.
View attachment 171793
Yep, that's evaporation and nice lake effect clouds to the south. The lake temperature is around 50° F, a great temperature differential for snow making. If you check the weather radars you can see the bands of snow developing over Oswego NY.
 

TomY

Alden Forum Moderator
Jun 22, 2004
1,940
Alden 38' Challenger yawl Rockport Harbor
The water level dynamics on Lake Ontario are fairly straight forward. Around 80-85% of the water that enters the Lake comes through the Niagara River and is uncontrolled. Any rain that falls in Duluth, Minnesota eventually makes it way to Lake Ontario. If you look at a watershed map for the Great Lakes, you'll see that all of the water that falls on Michigan ends up in the lakes. Thus, when the Midwest experiences a wet season or multiple seasons a year or two later that water ends up in Lake Ontario.

Water leaves Lake Ontario via 2 paths, evaporation and through the St. Lawrence. A good portion of that evaporated water returns to the lake via lake effect snow and showers and much of it runs back into the lake each spring. Very little water is lost through evaporation in the summer because there is little difference between air and water temperature. Early winter is a different story. The water is relatively warm and the air cold and dry, so there is considerable evaporative water loss. It forms clouds and snow, a lot of snow. Snow falls measured in feet are not uncommon downwind of the lake. The process is very similar to the fair weather cumulus clouds we see in the summer.

The other path way is the St Lawrence and the primary control is the Moses-Saunders Dam. It serves several purposes, control water levels downstream to maintain safe navigation, generate power, and control water levels upstream, i.e., Lake Ontario and some small "lakes" behind the dam.

The maximum outflow from the dam is about 10, 500 cubic meters/second. In the spring the inflow to the lake can exceed that value. When the inflow exceeds the outflow the lake rises. Lowering the lake level takes a lot of time, at best a couple of inches a month.

It would seem to be a simple solution to just let the dam rip and open all the gates, except for a several factors. Letting too much water out too quickly in the late winter and spring can cause ice jams with flooding and shoreline damage. Montreal lies at the confluence of the Ottawa and St Lawrence Rivers, the Ottawa River is uncontrolled. When Northern Quebec has a lot of precipitation, water levels rise in Montreal. In both 2017 and 2019 Montreal was flooded by several feet. Increasing the flow out of the Moses Saunders dam makes the flooding in Montreal worse. Increasing the outflow on the St. Lawrence increases the currents in the river making navigation more difficult and dangerous. This affects the safety of ships, i.e. more likely to run aground as they try to navigate the narrow channels and it affects billions of dollars of international trade. The IJC and the St Lawrence Seaway Commission have paused seaway traffic to allow higher outflows, however, this affects millions of jobs along the Seaway and through throughout the midwest in both the US and Canada. Water levels near the dam will decrease faster than those further upstream. Early last month the IJC had to reduce outflows to raise the water level in the impoundment lakes behind the dams so marinas and boat owners could get their boats out of the water.

The new plan, 2014b, called for slightly higher lake levels and slightly lower lake levels to more approximate the natural variation of the lake if there were no dams. The variation was on the order or 4-6 inches higher and 4-6 inches lower. This would allow flooding of the marshes along the river and lake which would have beneficial effects on the local environment.

The numbers reported by the IJC this week indicate that last week that ~ 1500 cubic meters of water entered the lake that did not leave the lake. That's a lot of water. The IJC anticipates raising the outflow to 8920 cubic meters/second this week.

My take on the problem is that IJC is between a rock and a hard place trying to balance all of the various interests along the Lake and Seaway. They might not have been aggressive enough in lowering the Lake last fall, but that would only account for a small amount of the excess water in the lake. And, if they were able and had lowered the lake enough to prevent the flooding it would have adversely affected downstream navigation. If the lake had been lowered enough to prevent flooding and we had a dry winter and spring would there have been enough water?

The situation is not helped by grandstanding politicians (that would be you Andrew). I understand the concerns of property owners and businesses along the lake. However, if you own property that is subject to erosion and flooding, then that is a risk you take when you buy the property. You can't mess with Mother Nature.
Thanks for this summary and other facts here. It's nice to get this factual background info from the GL sailors. Very complex water area to understand, especially if you're on the coast.
 
Jan 1, 2006
4,334
Slickcraft 26 Greenport, NY
Lake effect snow is an interesting phenomenon. Particularly Lake Ontario which I'm most familiar with from decades of watching NY wether. It's amazing how far South and East it can extend. But in regard to lake level doesn't most of that snow melt and run back into Lake Ontario? Chessy drainage basin begins somewhere around Binghamton so you may lose some there.
 
Oct 19, 2017
5,295
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
doesn't most of that snow melt and run back into Lake Ontario?
As moist air moves over mountains, like the Adirondacks, it is lifted and cools. This means the air can't hold as much moisture as it would be able to if it didn't rise over the mountains. Thus, the lee side of the mountains tends to get the most snow fall as the deceased air pressure on that side of the mountain allows the colder air to condense on airborn particles. The most runoff from lake effect air will run down the Hudson valley and Champlain.

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,170
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
the primary control is the Moses-Saunders Dam
That dam was started in 1954. So the planners used prior history design information to set the height, based on a flooded control basin.

Like "Field of Dreams", build the dam and the "boaters" will come.:cool:

I wonder why there is no project to allow more dammed water, discharge control?
________
Evaporation is a seasonal removal of water. All it takes is one heavy rain to reverse it.
I have been involved in building a dam for a much smaller basin. Evaporation was considered, but a small effect overall.

Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
10,671
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
For all the complaints about water heard from many parts of the country, one of the great treasures we have are the Great Lakes.

Nice summary Dave, as to the complexity involved in trying to manage the multiple interests through human intervention.
  • We need to raise the lake in order to take care of the economic benefits a man made/controlled waterway has provided.
  • Greater human habitation has developed as a result of the economic draw.
  • Would folks live in Montreal if it was not financially beneficial.
  • Would they build homes in low lying places if the “managed” water levels did not invite such opportunity?
And it goes on.....
As Dave clarified it is a challenge of conflict and compromise among competing human interests.
 
Sep 22, 2018
741
Hunter 216 Kingston
  • Would they build homes in low lying places if the “managed” water levels did not invite such opportunity?
And it goes on.....
Human nature so to speak.

 
Sep 22, 2018
741
Hunter 216 Kingston
Large sections of Holland are well below sea level, lots of national investment to continually upgrade and reinforce the barriers that are holding back nature. New Orleans is another good example of mankind’s long term willingness to roll the dice against what appears to be an increasing more agitated Mother Nature.
 
Jan 11, 2014
4,420
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
As moist air moves over mountains, like the Adirondacks, it is lifted and cools. This means the air can't hold as much moisture as it would be able to if it didn't rise over the mountains. Thus, the lee side of the mountains tends to get the most snow fall as the deceased air pressure on that side of the mountain allows the colder air to condense on airborn particles. The most runoff from lake effect air will run down the Hudson valley and Champlain.

-Will (Dragonfly)
Before air hits the ADK, it runs into the Tug Hill Plateau that rises about 1000 feet above Lake Ontario. Water from the Tug ends up back in Lake Ontario. Some of the western and south western part of the ADK drain into the Lake Ontario watershed indirectly through Oneida Lake. Elsewhere in NY the Finger Lakes receive Lake Effect snow from Lake Erie. When conditions are right, here in Central NY we receive lake effect snow that starts in Superior and Huron.

The Great Lakes watershed is huge. Great Lakes Basin - Wikipedia
 
  • Like
Likes: Will Gilmore
Nov 8, 2007
1,191
Hunter 27_75-84 Sandusky Harbor Marina, Lake Erie
On climate change, responding to jssailem, gilmore and others.

I read Dr. Roy Spencer’s link, provided by jssailem. While any scientist worth his/her salt welcomes sceptics, Dr. Spencer is demonstrably, wrong on a number of the questions he poses about climate change. If you want to read the straightforward work of a climatologist in the 95+% who agree that serious climate change is happening, and that human activity is causing it, have a look at Katharine Hayhoe | Climate Scientist. Her TED talk here is a good place to start: POSTS | Katharine Hayhoe | Climate Scientist.

The climatologists’ definition of climate is the average global weather over a 20 year period. This is because short cycle variations due to Sun activity, el nino/la nina, volcanic eruptions, etc. make it hard to see climate changes on shorter periods.

Dr. Spencer’s education through his PhD is as a meteorologist, which may explain some of his errors.

On his 2) Why Do Some Scientists Say It’s Cooling... he says, “But if we look at a shorter, more recent period of time, say since the record warm year of 1998, one could say that it has cooled in the last 10-12 years.” Yes, but that would not be a climate measurement! There has been no downturn of temperatures on a 20 running average in the last 50 years.

His 18) How Important are Computerized Climate Models? Is key, because (although he says they are important) his lack of knowledge is the basis of error in his points 3, 7, 10, 11, 13, 17, and 19. In 18 he says, “My biggest concern is that models have been used almost exclusively for supporting the claim that humans cause global warming, rather than for exploring alternative hypotheses — e.g. natural climate variations — as possible causes of that warming.” As I learned at Ohio State’s Byrd Polar Research Center recently, they are one of at least 20 centers developing and using comprehensive climate models. Over the past 15 years, these models have become ever more detailed and accurate. Most of this effort has been focused on “exploring alternative models,” such as long term solar radiation changes, out-gassing from volcanoes, and even changes in cloud formation. None of those explored to date alone or in combination could account for more than 5-10% of the observed changes in CO2 and global average temperature.

Finally, his points 13 and 14 put forth his favored explanation for the warming he agrees is happening over the past 50 years - “natural changes in cloud cover.” In fact, recent research concludes that cloud cover is a positive feedback factor for global warming. That is, global warming probably causes changes in cloud cover that accelerate more global warming.

This topic is crucial for our children and grandchildren. I encourage all to engage in the conversation. Listen to Katherine Hayhoe and other climatologists who have reached their near unanimous conclusions after decades of sceptical debate. Keep an open mind, and enjoy their impressive work. Follow them in coming years, and update your own conclusions. Because, if 95% of climate scientists are right, we need to begin acting seriously now!