On climate change, responding to jssailem, gilmore and others.
I read Dr. Roy Spencer’s link, provided by jssailem. While any scientist worth his/her salt welcomes sceptics, Dr. Spencer is demonstrably, wrong on a number of the questions he poses about climate change. If you want to read the straightforward work of a climatologist in the 95+% who agree that serious climate change is happening, and that human activity is causing it, have a look at
Katharine Hayhoe | Climate Scientist. Her TED talk here is a good place to start:
POSTS | Katharine Hayhoe | Climate Scientist.
The climatologists’ definition of climate is the average global weather over a 20 year period. This is because short cycle variations due to Sun activity, el nino/la nina, volcanic eruptions, etc. make it hard to see climate changes on shorter periods.
Dr. Spencer’s education through his PhD is as a meteorologist, which may explain some of his errors.
On his
2) Why Do Some Scientists Say It’s Cooling... he says, “But if we look at a shorter, more recent period of time, say since the record warm year of 1998, one could say that it has cooled in the last 10-12 years.” Yes, but that would not be a climate measurement! There has been no downturn of temperatures on a 20 running average in the last 50 years.
His
18) How Important are Computerized Climate Models? Is key, because (although he says they are important) his lack of knowledge is the basis of error in his points 3, 7, 10, 11, 13, 17, and 19. In 18 he says, “My biggest concern is that models have been used almost exclusively for supporting the claim that humans cause global warming, rather than for exploring alternative hypotheses — e.g. natural climate variations — as possible causes of that warming.” As I learned at Ohio State’s Byrd Polar Research Center recently, they are one of at least 20 centers developing and using comprehensive climate models. Over the past 15 years, these models have become ever more detailed and accurate. Most of this effort has been focused on “exploring alternative models,” such as long term solar radiation changes, out-gassing from volcanoes, and even changes in cloud formation. None of those explored to date alone or in combination could account for more than 5-10% of the observed changes in CO2 and global average temperature.
Finally, his points 13 and 14 put forth his favored explanation for the warming he agrees is happening over the past 50 years - “natural changes in cloud cover.” In fact, recent research concludes that cloud cover is a positive feedback factor for global warming. That is, global warming probably causes changes in cloud cover that accelerate more global warming.
This topic is crucial for our children and grandchildren. I encourage all to engage in the conversation. Listen to Katherine Hayhoe and other climatologists who have reached their near unanimous conclusions after decades of sceptical debate. Keep an open mind, and enjoy their impressive work. Follow them in coming years, and update your own conclusions. Because, if 95% of climate scientists are right, we need to begin acting seriously now!
