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high water?

Feb 14, 2014
4,170
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
I am still curious why they are comparing 2012.
My guess was that was the "outlier" year.

As far as Energy Input to the Earth, 2012 was near the peak of Solar Cycle 24 [2014].
Check here more info on our Sun's Energy Output Cycles.

Although they note Solar Cycle 25 started, it is not true. That single spot was an "outlier".;)

We are now seeing an increase in Cosmic Rays from our Sun.:yikes:

That is a term I haven't heard about, since elementary school science. Please note the impact on our climate.:cool:

Please note, that I am "nudging" this thread toward the most significant Energy Input to our Planet, the Sun.

Trivia question: If our Sun went out at noon today, what time would the surface of our Oceans freeze?

Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,170
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Actually all 3 are correct answers to the Trivia question.:ass:

Thermodynamically speaking [excluding Hell]
22 hours or 10:00am next day.

All of the Oceans would freeze to the bottom in less than a week.

The point was to show how much Solar Energy hits the Earth daily.

The largest solar energy collector is our Oceans.
_____
Back to the rain/snow around the Great Lakes basin this winter.

The best forecast models we have are about 10 days, with best being 5 days.

NOAA is experimenting with longer forecasts or trends now.
Try here 3 Month Outlooks. or more.

There are longer ranges and then Verification [:thumbup:]of those models.

The Bad News...
Great Lakes are is showing a high probability of increases Precipitation through May 2020.

Jim...
 
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Oct 19, 2017
5,295
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
Harder to predict than that.
While the loss of solar energy would cease about eight minutes after the Sun went out, tectonic energy would only slow down. The rotation of Earth, in relation to the Sun and the Moon would continue to move the magma and the crust in a wave around the Earth that would keep the oceans above zero. I have no idea how far above. The accompanying volcanic activity would also help maintain heat. The movement of currents from things like the tides, the Coriolis effect, temperature gradients, would lower the freezing temperatures of the ocean considerably.
I think it would take weeks, maybe even months for the world's oceans to freeze over.

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
May 25, 2012
2,247
john alden caravelle 42 sturgeon bay, wis
the level of lake michigan/huron this october was i believe 13" above the what it was in october of 18'. that with the noaa predictions that jim has the link to are how i made my prediction. it can easily be well more than my 18" guess.
back in the day, on the lake ships, we got local lake water levels daily or more. paying attention to depths is cargo, is money. loading the vessels to the max every time was mandatory. not running aground because the levels changed in route was a concern. understanding how and why the levels change was a constant concern.
i've been watching these changes for 45 years. i hope i'm wrong, but i'm paying attention and planing for what the signs are indicating. aeolus is put up in a good spot and my summer home is up high and not built on sand.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,170
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
I think it would take weeks, maybe even months for the world's oceans to freeze over.
Well no.
Geothermal effects are insignificant, except when localized. Think volume of water.;)
But...
I will change the Trivia question just for you.
If we put up a reflective shield to block all Solar Radiation, how long to freeze the surface of all the waters.

The Input of Solar Energy is HUGE. [plus LSU would still beat Alabama:biggrin:]
Jim...

PS: If Geothermal was such a great source of energy, why don't we ALL use it? Localized, we can.
 
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Jan 11, 2014
4,420
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
Drifting the thread back from statistical inquiry and hypothetical deep freeze ice ages......

The IJC just released this week's data on Lake Ontario water levels.

Current level: 256.26 feet above sea level
Average: 244. 59

Last weeks mean out flow: 8750 cubic meters per second
Last weeks mean in flow: 10120 cubic meters per second

The numbers are going the wrong way. :(
 
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Oct 19, 2017
5,295
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
I'm sure there are some real statistics experts here, so could someone please explain, how is that green line a median for the graph in post number 25?
Also
Isn't it statistically really strange for the average depicted in the graph on the article posted in #3, to so closely reflect the median?
To help explain my question, it is my understanding that the median is the point right in the middle of the data range, not the mean or the modal point. Maybe I'm misunderstanding the data, but they don't seem like a good representation. As was pointed out, to even talk about the standard deviation, the data set has to be normalized, a symmetrical bell curve, otherwise, there are multiple possible s.d.s for the each side of the average.

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,170
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
hypothetical deep freeze ice ages
I see you did some research on the state of the Sun.:thumbup:

I am not among the New Ice Age Crowd. The mini ice age of the Late 1870's was real.

However, the Magnetic Poles of our Sun are now missing [or neutral]. They reverse polarity every ≈11 years. The Last 4 Cycles are lower in magnitude and longer in neutral. From NASA...
What Is the Solar Cycle? | NASA Space Place – NASA Science for Kids

Neutral means lower Energy Emissions. Note: the graph on the Sun 1996-2006

This was not adrift on this thread, it was to point out...
Watch the Polar Ice or the real answer to Sea Level Changes.

Jim...
 
Jan 11, 2014
4,420
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
I'm sure there are some real statistics experts here, so could someone please explain, how is that green line a median for the graph in post number 25?
Also
Isn't it statistically really strange for the average depicted in the graph on the article posted in #3, to so closely reflect the median?
To help explain my question, it is my understanding that the median is the point right in the middle of the data range, not the mean or the modal point. Maybe I'm misunderstanding the data, but they don't seem like a good representation. As was pointed out, to even talk about the standard deviation, the data set has to be normalized, a symmetrical bell curve, otherwise, there are multiple possible s.d.s for the each side of the average.

-Will (Dragonfly)
The mean (arithmetic average), mode and median are the three measures of central tendency. Each have their own strengths and weaknesses. The purpose of a measure of central tendency is to provide one number that best reflects the distribution. That's how airline seats are designed, what size bottom will cause the least distress to the largest number of passengers.

In a normal distribution of infinite size the mean, mode and median are the same. However, in the real world we are often dealing with fewer than infinite elements in a distribution, thus the three may not be equal.

Because the average is an arithmetically derived number, it can be used in other calculations, such as calculating standard deviations and various statistical analyses (t-Test, ANOVA, ANACOVA, etc.). A drawback to an arithmetical average is its sensitivity to magnitude of the differences in the values in the data set, especially small data sets. Consider 3 teachers sitting in a bar talking about salary, the first one says he makes $50K, the next $60K and the third $70K. In this case the mean is $60K and the median is $60K. (Because there are only 3 unique values, the mode really doesn't tell us much, the distribution has 3 modes, I.e., each individual element.)

The median is the midpoint in the data range, half the values are higher than the median half are lower. The median may not be equal to any element in the data set. The median of 2, 3, 5, 6 is 4. The strength of the median is the lack of sensitivity to the magnitude of the differences between elements, the median for the distribution of 2, 3, 5, 1K is 4. The median is an ordinal number, because it is ordinal it can not be used in a mathematical calculation, it is simply description. Ordinal numbers simply identify the data point position in the distribution. The median is the middle position when the data points are arranged from lowest to highest.

Modes simply identify the most frequently occurring value. They are helpful in describing a distribution but aren't used for much. If the mode is about the same as the mean and median, then the distribution is more likely to be a normal distribution (bell curve or Gaussian distribution).

Now lets get back to the bar with our three teachers. Another person sits down at the table and orders a beer. Turns out he's a retail clerk at a big box marine store and he's complaining about his salary which turns out to be a measly $30K. The median salary for bar patrons is now 55K as that is the midpoint, 30K, 50K, (55K), 60K, 70K. Remember, the median does not have to be an element of the data set. The mean is now $52.5 K. In this case the median only dropped 5K while the mean dropped 7.5K.

A little while later a fifth person sits down at the table and orders a bottle of Dom Perignon. We know right away this person is not a teacher nor a WM employee. As introductions are made, it turns out he's a retired tech guy who goes by the name of Bill. (Except in certain circles in Cupertino, CA.) The conversation returns to salaries and Bill mentions he had a good year with his income reaching 10 or 11 digits.

The salary distribution now looks like this: 30K, 50K, 60K, 70K, 1 bazillion. What's the median? It goes back to $60K, that is the midpoint in the distribution. The mean however is now something like .20 bazillion, considerably more than 60K. Going back to the purpose of a measure of central tendency which better describes our group of bar patrons? The mean of .20 bazillion or the median of 60K? Obviously the answer is the median, more of our patrons are earning close to 60K than to .20 bazillion.

Back to the green line in #25. The median line is flat and given the values in the graph this is the appropriate measure because it is insensitive to wild swings. One of the reasons statistics developed was to predict farm yields. With weather meteorologists and climatologists are trying to predict future weather. The flat median line says, past ice coverage does not predict future ice coverage. That is, in any given year it is equally likely that there will more or less ice than average. It doesn't do anything to explain why or how much difference there will be.

Consider another scenario where the median is trending downward (to less ice coverage). In this scenario the safe bet would be to predict less ice coverage in the next year, because the trend has been towards less ice coverage.

The interesting aspect of the graph is not the median line, it is the wide variation from year to year. That variation would be measured by a standard deviation. Large standard deviations indicate that the data is distributed across a wide range, a small deviation suggests the distribution is narrow. When the SD of a distribution is narrow or small, predictions can be made more accurately than if the distribution is large. For example if the range is from 1 to 10, there is a 10% chance of making the right prediction; if the range is 1 to 100 the chance declines to 1%. Returning the graph, in the first 5 years the range is roughly 12% to 36% coverage. In the years from 2012 to 2017 the range is much different, 3% to 37%.

So that's the simple basic version and it is atheortetical and does not attempt to factor in any other climate or weather data. The next levels of analysis involve adding multiple factors into regression equations that attempt to add increased descriptive and predictive accuracy. And when I consider those ideas, I get flashbacks to PSY 896 and orthogonal rotations in multidimensional spaces and blackboards covered in matrices.

Does this help?:beer:
 
Oct 1, 2007
1,394
Hunter 44DS Pt. Judith
Harder to predict than that.
While the loss of solar energy would cease about eight minutes after the Sun went out, tectonic energy would only slow down. The rotation of Earth, in relation to the Sun and the Moon would continue to move the magma and the crust in a wave around the Earth that would keep the oceans above zero. I have no idea how far above. The accompanying volcanic activity would also help maintain heat. The movement of currents from things like the tides, the Coriolis effect, temperature gradients, would lower the freezing temperatures of the ocean considerably.
I think it would take weeks, maybe even months for the world's oceans to freeze over.

-Will (Dragonfly)
So what about prevailing winds? Would I need to modify my cruise planning to accommodate a different wind pattern?
 
May 17, 2004
2,057
Beneteau Oceanis 37 LE Havre de Grace
Feb 14, 2014
4,170
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
Dave, great explanation of a Normal Distribution of data.:clap:

But...

Your bazillionaire Skewed the Data. [not screwed]

When your data is skewed your chances of an easy projection goes haywire.
That is why climate prediction and past causation gets the BOOT.
______
First you must begin with a cause and effect model. Then test it against raw and not filtered data.
Where forecast models get in trouble is filtering the data.

They use statistics to filter ,as an excuse, and then throw out "outliers" or use Averages.
______
Each Hurricane season, NOAA reviews all the "spaghetti models" and grades them. Then they run the grades on a time line [yr by yr] to see if they are improving. Those models that don't improve are rejected the next year.
But the key is the still real data input. That is what is improving, no so much the models.o_O
_____
Climate predictions have assumed that Solar Energy input is a constant. Well well well...
Jim...
 
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Jun 1, 2007
3,339
Macgregor 26S Hobie TI, Capri Coronado 15 Denver, Colorado
Climate predictions have assumed that Solar Energy input is a constant. Well well well...
Jim... Y

No references on that.. why not give it if its accurate?.. What prediction are you talking about:? I can fact check everything for you if needed???? Read this link about solar output and how its used New NASA Instrument Measures Sunshine on Earth

Since there is conflicting information on this subject, I always like to fact check myself and give the reference. Here is the satellite measured solar power for nearly 40 years from the link above. You can see the eleven year cycle and that we are near a minimum of the eleven year cycle plus there is a slow downward trend over this time period.




Satellites have also been measured global temperatures over the same time frame. Both land and satellite date shows a similar trend but Ive used satellite global temperature anomaly because there is less question about the accuracy. UAH satellite global temerature anomaly from this link (as mentioned.. links of where info came from make it more credible) Latest Global Temps « Roy Spencer, PhD You can see a clear upward trend in temperature even though the solar output actually has had somewhat of a downward trend during the same time. You cant explain this if you ignore the human influence. If you consider the human influence, it can be explained.