high water?

[Hunter216]

We have geo-fixed satellites over each pole and are monitored and discussed here.
National Snow and Ice Data Center |
The key is our Sun and its radiation activities.


The snow fall and melt is a concern per this thread.

But it is down hill flow as long as the ocean levels don't rise, too much.
Jim...

PS: Also Sun's gravitational effects, that do cycle every ≈11 years.
PSS: They are wondering why the ice is increasing at that link.

Thanks for the link, I think as at first glance there are a lot of rabbit holes there

I’m thinking that 270 ft above sea level I’m pretty safe from having salt water at the dock! However it was windy onshore a few days ago and we had some waves slosh some water over the top and we are no where close to annual peak!

I guess weather is sort of like the stock market, ups and downs that aren’t under human control

 

[TomY]

Thanks for the link, I think as at first glance there are a lot of rabbit holes there

I’m thinking that 270 ft above sea level I’m pretty safe from having salt water at the dock! However it was windy onshore a few days ago and we had some waves slosh some water over the top and we are no where close to annual peak!

I guess weather is sort of like the stock market, ups and downs that aren’t under human control

Yeah, you don't get weather mixed up with climate, and sea level rise has been tracked for more than a century.

But the rate of SL rise has gone up over the last few decades. Even if the rate of rise stays at about 1/8" per year, that's become a game changer for millions around the world that live close to the high tide line.

While the future trend is clear, the rate of sea level rise, is not.

 

[walt]

PSS: They are wondering why the ice is increasing at that link.

What do you think the ice increase in Antarctica indicates? Most of that continent has average year around temps well below freezing and of course you have to get above freezing to melt ice. This link thinks the increased ice in Antarctica is due to a record strong Polar Vortex Polar Vortex Grows Arctic Sea Ice to 10-Year High, but There's a Catch | The Weather Channel

Ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean is currently the highest it has been since 2010 with support from the strongest polar vortex on record.

When the polar vortex is strongest, cold air is less likely to plunge deep into North America or Europe (by strongest, we mean the generally west-to-east flow around the vortex is stronger than average).

Think of it like a wall – a stronger polar vortex helps block off cold, arctic air from the midlatitudes.

For much of this winter, the polar vortex has been strong and remained over the poles, where the coldest air has been trapped for the last few months.

The Greenland ice sheet is a different story.. Greenland's Rapid Melt Will Mean More Flooding

And of course, there is still the global temperature anomaly satellite data from UAH which I like to use because these guys are skeptics. The global temperature anomaly measured by both satellite and terrestrial is still going UP..

Latest data from Feb 2020 from here Latest Global Temps « Roy Spencer, PhD

 

[Hayden Watson]

There is one thing for curtain. Whether the sea levels increase or decrease, the average temps go up or down, hell freezes over nor not, there is one doubt that it was caused by man.

 

[walt]

We have geo-fixed satellites over each pole and are monitored and discussed here.
National Snow and Ice Data Center |
The key is our Sun and its radiation activities.

This subject stays civil when links are posted rather than opinions so I always will post a link so you know where into comes from. The link referenced earlier has ice information on Greenland also. Interesting.. A very different story than Antarctica for the last several years.

Greenland Ice Sheet Today | Surface Melt Data presented by NSIDC

nsidc.org

Interesting to look at.. and one quote from that link

Overall, melting on the Greenland ice sheet for 2019 was the seventh-highest since 1978, behind 2012, 2010, 2016, 2002, 2007, and 2011 (Figure 2). Since 2000, the ice sheet has experienced a general increase in melting, with melt-day area for 2019 totaling 28.3 million square kilometers (10.9 million square miles) for the season. Melting was observed over nearly 90 percent of the island on at least one day, reaching the Summit Station and much of the high-altitude areas. It was particularly intense along the northern edge of the ice sheet, where compared to the 1981 to 2010 average, melting occurred for an additional 35 days.

This is off topic.. and of course not related to the Great lakes. But the link got posted and I found this interesting.

 

[JamesG161]

What do you think the ice increase in Antarctica indicates?

Well longer and below salt water freezing temperature for 2 years running, perhaps?

This link thinks the increased ice in Antarctica is due to a record strong Polar Vortex

Wrong pole in your link. Try further south.
Jim...

PS: Polar Votex is just a Low Pressure cell or what we call a storm. Those do have limited longevity, just like Hurricanes.
PSS: Self isolation does have its negative points.

 

[Will Gilmore]

If all of the ice in Antarctica melted it would raise sea levels 57 meters.

Not quite an accurate number.
Wikipedia says there are 26.5 million cubic kilometers. The total surface area of the Earth's ocean's is 510 million square kilometers. 26.5 / 510 leaves a depth of 0.0052 kilometers or 52 meters. Close enough except...
The reported mean thickness of Antarctic ice is 2.16 kilometers with the bedrock of the area of the Byrd Subglacial Basin having an elevation of 2538 meters below sea level. The Byrd subglacial basin is a significant portion of Antarctica. If the ice melted to the ocean, this area would not only, not add to the water of the rest of the World's oceans, it would take some of it back.
The calculation isn't so straight forward. It still seems like a lot of water. It's just that much of what is counted as the contingent of Antarctica is already displacing parts of the ocean as ice and its melting wouldn't have an effect. How much ice sits above sea level, that's a harder question to answer.

-Will (Dragonfly)

 

[Hunter216]

Not quite an accurate number.
Wikipedia says there are 26.5 million cubic kilometers. The total surface area of the Earth's ocean's is 510 million square kilometers. 26.5 / 510 leaves a depth of 0.0052 kilometers or 52 meters. Close enough except...
The reported mean thickness of Antarctic ice is 2.16 kilometers with the bedrock of the area of the Byrd Subglacial Basin having an elevation of 2538 meters below sea level. The Byrd subglacial basin is a significant portion of Antarctica. If the ice melted to the ocean, this area would not only, not add to the water of the rest of the World's oceans, it would take some of it back.
The calculation isn't so straight forward. It still seems like a lot of water. It's just that much of what is counted as the contingent of Antarctica is already displacing parts of the ocean as ice and its melting wouldn't have an effect. How much ice sits above sea level, that's a harder question to answer.

-Will (Dragonfly)

So we could go sailing in a fresh water lake in the Basin

Byrd Subglacial Basin - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

This isn’t the article I read (couldn’t recall where it was ) but it indicates 60m or so. Interesting that WiKi didn’t pick up on the Byrd thing.

Climate of Antarctica - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I’m thinking that if earth ever got to the point where all of the ice has melted there wouldn’t be anyone around to see it.

 

[walt]

What do you think the ice increase in Antarctica indicates?

Well longer and below salt water freezing temperature for 2 years running, perhaps?

From the NSIDC link again Sea Ice Index | National Snow and Ice Data Center

There are some interesting summary graphs on the ice for both the arctic and antarctic in this link..

The first image below is from the Southern Hemisphere and the second from the Northern Hemisphere.

Note that the trending negative slope of the Northern Hemisphere is over 3.6 times larger than the trending positive slope of the Southern Hemisphere. However, the +/- variation for the Southern Hemisphere is over 8 times larger than the Northern Hemisphere. (not sure what the large variation means.. but its interesting).

Now compare those two Anomaly graphs to the actual measured global temperature anomaly (UAH satellite referenced in a previous post and linked to here again so its easier to visualize any correlations

This is my opinion only.. but the increase ice in Antarctica for two years is NOT any sort of indicator of a global temperature anomaly. Plus.. we actually have satellite (and terrestrial) measurements on the temperature anomaly. Its more like noting that the Southern US had a colder than normal winter. If you really dig into this, what happens in Antarctica has more to do with wind and water currents but that gets way off topic here.

 

[Will Gilmore]

This is my opinion only.. but the increase ice in Antarctica for two years is NOT any sort of indicator of a global temperature anomaly.

Agreed. However, the receding edge ice coupled with the building cap ice tells me that the ocean temperatures have more effect that atmospheric temperatures. This would be consistent with the Arctic trends in your graph too, since the Arctic ice is all oceanic and not land-based.

Here's a graph from IUCN.org of surface ocean temperature trend over time:

This one, as you can see, is of deep ocean temperatures.

So, which is causal and which is dependent?

-Will (Dragonfly)

 

[walt]

that the ocean temperatures have more effect that atmospheric temperatures.

Here is a somewhat complicated scientific article on Antarctica from 2019.

RealClimate: The Antarctic ice sheet is melting and, yeah, it’s probably our fault.

RealClimate: Glaciers in West Antarctica have thinned and accelerated in the last few decades. A new paper provides some of the first evidence that this is due to human activities. by Eric Steig It’s been some time since I wrote anything for RealClimate. In the interim there’s been a lot of...

www.realclimate.org

Lots of cool words in there like Circumpolar Deep Water, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Amundsen Sea winds..

I would try reading this if you want to understand the complexity of the ice variations in Antarctica. My only observation is that "its complicated" as is usually the case. A few more scientific articles on Antarctica.

RealClimate: So what is really happening in Antarctica?

RealClimate: The recent paper by Zwally et al. in the Journal of Glaciology has been widely reported as evidence that Antarctic is gaining mass, and hence lowering sea level. Is it? Expert Jonathan Bamber weighs in. Guest post by Jonathan Bamber, University of Bristol There have been quite few...

www.realclimate.org

RealClimate: How long does it take Antarctica to notice the Northern Hemisphere is warming?

RealClimate: Eric Steig A series of large and abrupt climate changes occurred during the last ice age, most clearly expressed in ice cores from Greenland and other paleoclimate data from the circum-North-Atlantic region. Since the discovery of these events, we’ve been trying to pin down the...

www.realclimate.org

 

[Hunter216]

First big thunderstorm of the season. Raining cats and dogs, waves already cresting the dock and not even close to the time of year where the lake level rises dramatically. However seems a little trivial based on what is going on around the world.

 

[Will Gilmore]

seems a little trivial based on what is going on around the world.

Maybe or maybe they are related in this case. Skeletal staff at the locks, less traffic, less electricity being used, as businesses are shut down, no good plan for this type of economy or social environment? This could complicate a lot of lives of people who may be required to break isolation.

-Will (Dragonfly)

 

[Hunter216]

Updated IJC data.
The “forecast” is looking better than previous post! Hoping for a dry spring throughout the basin.

 

[TomY]

I'm glad this GL water level info is posted.

High Water is a regular weather warning these days. Here on the Northeast coast of the Atlantic, today's current Coastal Flood Advisory is becoming typical in our forecasts.

The recipe is the same: A higher than normal tide (close moon- 1+ plus of HW), and on onshore wind(raises HW).

In this case, gusts in the 40 knot range out of the South put most of our coast to leeward.

TIDAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Flooding of low-lying vulnerable locations
near the waterfront can be expected with up to a foot inundation
in some low lying areas. Flooding will occur along parking lots,
parks and roads with only isolated road closures expected.

* WAVE IMPACTS...Some minor to moderate beach erosion expected
with partial erosion of vulnerable dunes. Minor splash-over
expected.

Nothing major except for low lying areas. However, the ongoing flooding effect is insidious due to the coastal erosion these increasingly regular events inflict on shoreline. Loss of precious land between the shoreline and buildings, sea walls slowly crumbling due to the increased washing out of soils. Coupled with rising sea levels these events will increase and speed up this ongoing damage.

 

[Hunter216]

I'm glad this GL water level info is posted.

High Water is a regular weather warning these days. Here on the Northeast coast of the Atlantic, today's current Coastal Flood Advisory is becoming typical in our forecasts.

The recipe is the same: A higher than normal tide (close moon- 1+ plus of HW), and on onshore wind(raises HW).

In this case, gusts in the 40 knot range out of the South put most of our coast to leeward.

TIDAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Flooding of low-lying vulnerable locations
near the waterfront can be expected with up to a foot inundation
in some low lying areas. Flooding will occur along parking lots,
parks and roads with only isolated road closures expected.

* WAVE IMPACTS...Some minor to moderate beach erosion expected
with partial erosion of vulnerable dunes. Minor splash-over
expected.

Nothing major except for low lying areas. However, the ongoing flooding effect is insidious due to the coastal erosion these increasingly regular events inflict on shoreline. Loss of precious land between the shoreline and buildings, sea walls slowly crumbling due to the increased washing out of soils. Coupled with rising sea levels these events will increase and speed up this ongoing damage.

Similar erosion on the GL, no tide per se but the bodies of water are large enough that the seich effect can contribute, combined with wind driven wave action and it acts dramatically on land areas that are historically dry. I quite often see trees that have been undercut and toppled into the lake, once the root structure fails the erosion really accelerates.

Mother Nature keeping busy I guess

There is absolutely no scientific basis for what I hope will happen this year. Reduced air pollution will result in less rainfall over the GL basin.

 

[TomY]

''TIDAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Flooding of low-lying vulnerable locations
near the waterfront can be expected with up to a foot inundation
in some low lying areas. Flooding will occur along parking lots,
parks and roads with only isolated road closures expected."

That typical coastal flood advisory was most evident after midnight when the higher 'high tide' of the day happened. A reporter in nearby Camden Harbor took some photos. Our rocky topography makes our harbors the lowest areas in towns. Still, many buildings and infrastructure are around them. After centuries, the man-made stone perimeters sort of settled and are not keeping up with rising sea levels. These benign events remind us of that.

As long as the fates don't align them - highest tides during severe storm winds - these more regular events are just nuisance.

Much worse than the high water was the sticky wet snow that followed. That knocked down trees all over the state and over 200,000 of us were without power for days. Some are still not restored. The high water went largely noticed.

 

[jssailem]

This time of Spring the weather can be unsettling. Mix that with a “supermoon” and the tides some call “King Tides” can reach beyond their expected boundaries. Stir in the snow and it can become a real mess.

But still if you live in Maine you some how muddle through all this. I wonder. Is it this aggravation that empowers folk, who are true Maine residents, the strong inner being to carry on?

What drives a person to get up in the dark. Put on the same slicker they wore the past 60 days. Trudge across an ice covered dock to a boat and head out into the fog to check their pots.

 

[TomY]

What drives a person to get up in the dark. Put on the same slicker they wore the past 60 days. Trudge across an ice covered dock to a boat and head out into the fog to check their pots.

$$$

 

[sailme88]

This time of Spring the weather can be unsettling. Mix that with a “supermoon” and the tides some call “King Tides” can reach beyond their expected boundaries. Stir in the snow and it can become a real mess.

But still if you live in Maine you some how muddle through all this. I wonder. Is it this aggravation that empowers folk, who are true Maine residents, the strong inner being to carry on?

What drives a person to get up in the dark. Put on the same slicker they wore the past 60 days. Trudge across an ice covered dock to a boat and head out into the fog to check their pots.

Back in the day, they would get a fishing dory and row out in those very conditions. In a month or so the lobster will migrate back in. Still there are some lobstermen that prefer to fish on the outside. And the regular fishermen? They are quota limited by days, tonnage and species...A trip out is usually a 2 day event to the grounds..