Not looking promising as the level is way above “average” (which the last few years would have affected) and supply is outpacing outflow!!
high water?
- Thread starter jon hansen
- Start date
If there is any good news, it is the snow pack in NY is very low. If the snowfall continues to be low, we're about 2 feet below average, there will be less run off in March and April.
Of course, things could change. On March 12-14, 1993 there was a record snow storm in NY that dumped some 60" of snow in a couple of days. That was about 6 inches of water that entered the canal system in April and caused a lot of flooding.
Of course, things could change. On March 12-14, 1993 there was a record snow storm in NY that dumped some 60" of snow in a couple of days. That was about 6 inches of water that entered the canal system in April and caused a lot of flooding.
I was talking to the owner of my marina, he's been going to meetings with FEMA and other agencies about the water levels. There are some predictions the water will reach 250 ft. The top of Moses Saunders Dam is at 252.
A couple of weeks ago the IJC released a paper on the 2019 Flood:
ijc.org
This is an interesting video on the M-S and water levels on the Lake and River.
A couple of weeks ago the IJC released a paper on the 2019 Flood:
2019 High Water - Questions and Answers | International Joint Commission
Printable PDF version January 23, 2020 The following background paper was prepared and reviewed by staff on behalf of the International Joint Commission (IJC) and its International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board (ILOSLRB).
This is an interesting video on the M-S and water levels on the Lake and River.
Recent article in the NYT.
www.nytimes.com
Opinion | Along the Great Lakes, It’s Time to Prepare for Extremes (Published 2020)
The lakes are hitting record levels and lakefront communities are asking, what’s next?
The relatively warm weather appears to have allowed greater than “normal” outflows from Lake Ontario. Water levels are still higher than ever (2017 and 2019) but the trend line is headed in the right direction. Crossing my fingers and toes that at the very least it gets down below those two years going into spring.
The WSJ had an article
On Rising Great Lakes, Backyards Are Disappearing Overnight
this AM discussing the loss of home lake frontage to the storms of 2019/2020. The 4-7 inch higher water in the lakes makes the lake front property vulnerable to the erosion issues caused by storms on the lakes. They article states these highs occur after record lows in 2013.
The quote at the end of the article reminds me that change occurs and those not willing to consider history are destined to repeat it.
On Rising Great Lakes, Backyards Are Disappearing Overnight
this AM discussing the loss of home lake frontage to the storms of 2019/2020. The 4-7 inch higher water in the lakes makes the lake front property vulnerable to the erosion issues caused by storms on the lakes. They article states these highs occur after record lows in 2013.
The quote at the end of the article reminds me that change occurs and those not willing to consider history are destined to repeat it.
Phil Jonassen, a freelance house mover, last week walked several of the properties in Oceana County, Mich., where he has relocation jobs under way. At one, he had lifted a beige home high off the ground and back from the eroding shoreline, where a road had washed away and left a neighbor’s driveway dangling off a cliff.
On a different lot where he had begun to lift a house for relocation, he stood at the edge of another eroded cliff, pointing to a spot where his grandfather’s cottage used to stand before the land it was on washed away in a period of high water in the mid-1980s.
“The same thing is happening right here, right now,” he said. “Everybody on the lake shore, they’re in a bad spot.”
IJC announcement today
ijc.org
As you can see they maxed outflow again on the 23rd. Level is still above 2017-2019 however.
Record Outflows Continue Through February; Maximized outflows in March | International Joint Commission
The International Lake Ontario–St. Lawrence River Board agreed on February 21 to continue deviating from Plan 2014 and maximize outflows through the spring.
As you can see they maxed outflow again on the 23rd. Level is still above 2017-2019 however.
OUT FLOWS..
You got to dump the water sometime. It is a guess. Will the April Showers and bring May flowers, or will they stay away and then what....
There is no easy answer when you are trying to control Mother Nature and keep everybody happy. Our City Engineer reminds me often, that his job is a success if he can keep at least 50% of the city's residents happy. I guess that is at least as good as most TV Weather personalities.
You got to dump the water sometime. It is a guess. Will the April Showers and bring May flowers, or will they stay away and then what....
There is no easy answer when you are trying to control Mother Nature and keep everybody happy. Our City Engineer reminds me often, that his job is a success if he can keep at least 50% of the city's residents happy. I guess that is at least as good as most TV Weather personalities.
I wouldn't say global warming... the catch phrase is now climate change.. I any event the temperature of the globe is not the only sinner... Every time shore front is reclaimed it adds to the increase. Every time ( which is always) an underwater sea mount grows, the water rises....and every time a new volcanic island is born... the water rises. It is an undisputed law of physics...fluids are incompressible !On a more serious note the high water levels in the Great Lakes basin is perhaps the least of our worries. My grandson will be about 35. Check out the interactive maps.
New study triples global estimates of population threatened by sea level rise | Surging Seas: Sea level rise analysis by Climate Central
Global warming has raised global sea level about 8" since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating. Rising seas dramatically increase the odds of damaging floods from storm surges.sealevel.climatecentral.org
I think today’s announcement is about a several week delay in opening the seaway this spring which provides an opportunity to make it look good. There has been a LOT of bad press lately so LOTS of pressure to DO SOMETHING.
If you look at the charts above there are three days of max outflow and 0 change on Lake Ontario level. Takes a lot of outflow to make any significant change.
A high water treat: Rockland Maine breakwater in an east gale. High tide is 2 hours
away.
www.rocklandharborlights.org
away.
Rockland Breakwater Web Cam
Now that is something you would want to be aware of approaching at high tide in less than perfect visibility. And wow, that is impressive stone work.A high water treat: Rockland Maine breakwater in an east gale. High tide is 2 hours
away.
Rockland Breakwater Web Cam
I was reading recently about a report of record high temps in Antarctica 65F same as LA that day and that led me to look into ice melt. In recent years the melt in Antarctica has been in the area of 250 gigatonnes per year. That’s 250 cubic kilometres (slightly bigger than the size of Boston 1km thick) of water added each year.
If all of the ice in Antarctica melted it would raise sea levels 57 meters.
From NASA...
High temp was on the northern most Island that is part of Antarctica.
"The region in question is Eagle Island, one of several islands peppered along the Graham Land peninsula–an area situated closer to South America than any other part of the Antarctic continent, and separated from Antarctica’s mainland by the 1.77 km wide Aripleri Passage."
Winter time ahead for Antarctica as it has gained more ice each year for last 2.
Don't worry about rising tides this year.
Jim...
Not very worried about tides on Lake OntarioDon't worry about rising tides this year.
Interesting graph on sea ice extent as current isn’t that far off average for all the press coverage on “disappearing ice caps”.
I have difficulty getting my head around measuring things in Gigatonnes, cubics Kms etc. The scale of nature vs man made boggles my mind!
We have geo-fixed satellites over each pole and are monitored and discussed here.
National Snow and Ice Data Center |
The key is our Sun and its radiation activities.
But it is down hill flow as long as the ocean levels don't rise, too much.
Jim...
PS: Also Sun's gravitational effects, that do cycle every ≈11 years.
PSS: They are wondering why the ice is increasing at that link.
National Snow and Ice Data Center |
The key is our Sun and its radiation activities.
The snow fall and melt is a concern per this thread.
But it is down hill flow as long as the ocean levels don't rise, too much.
Jim...
PS: Also Sun's gravitational effects, that do cycle every ≈11 years.
PSS: They are wondering why the ice is increasing at that link.