I pretty much agree with Bill that lightning mostly follows ohms law. There is an uncertainty because of the non-linear impedance of air - when air ionizes, there is a dramatic change in impedance. I’ve posted the picture below before but this is a real photo of about a 10 to 12 KV discharge starting at the top of the picture (you can sort of see the pointy tip of the instrument which created the discharge). This is much lower energy than lightning so we don’t see the effects of heat but its certainly related. In this photo, the charge leaves the tip of the instrument and travels through ionized air to the top of the “mast”. Why, because the metal mast is clearly the lowest impedance path to the water surface. At the bottom of the "mast", there is a re-ionization and the charge makes pretty much a right angle turn and goes to the lower pin (the "mast" and the lower pin are NOT touching). Once again, this charge was simply following Ohms law. It followed the best “electric field” path. At the bottom of the lower pin, the charge once again uses ionized air and goes to the water surface where it discharges the "capacitor" Bill referred to.
Also attached is a drawing showing the uncertainty. In all these three cases, there is ionized air involved and where the charge goes for A and C is pretty certain. But for B, who knows. It would be some what random which way the lightning goes. It could take one path or the other, maybe even both paths.
Also attached is a drawing showing the uncertainty. In all these three cases, there is ionized air involved and where the charge goes for A and C is pretty certain. But for B, who knows. It would be some what random which way the lightning goes. It could take one path or the other, maybe even both paths.
