We normally look at 200mb level for major steering currents. aka Jet Stream.
If we want to look at Vorticity or Shear , we use 500mb
The Hurricane Hunters us a drop buoy with mandatory levels of 500, 700, 800mb and Sea Level.
Jim...
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Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
Invest 95L --> TD 13 --> TS Lee --> Hurricane Lee --> PTS Lee
- Thread starter JamesG161
- Start date
If we want to look at Vorticity or Shear , we use 500mb
The Hurricane Hunters us a drop buoy with mandatory levels of 500, 700, 800mb and Sea Level.
Jim...
Interesting discussion in the latest Tropical Tidbits video
He always does a good job explaining the various factors that go into both steering the systems and driving forecast uncertainty.
On the good side it looks like the one behind Lee is headed toward fish storm territory.
He always does a good job explaining the various factors that go into both steering the systems and driving forecast uncertainty.
On the good side it looks like the one behind Lee is headed toward fish storm territory.
Jim
At what point, I.e., how far away from the U.S., do the hurricane hunters fly to transit a storm?
There are several departure points.
1) Antilles
2) Puerto Rico
3) Florida and North if needed.
4) Or near me from Kessler AFB
Jim...
Based in Florida at 2 different AFB's.
They are new aircraft with Doppler Radar in the Nose section and can drop different weather items into the storm.
Jim...
They and their ground crew are moving now to Puerto Rico.
Recon Flights are Named by the Aircraft flown
1) NOAA
2) AF [the original Hurricane Hunters]
All of them are Heroes !!!
Jim...
Using Windy.com and the forecast it shows, the above chart looks like this a few days from now.
Please note this is a weak forecast today.
But we show it for clarification of the 500mb or 500hPa winds, plus this intensity [wind speeds] shown is at that pressure level.
Jim and John.
PS: Note the Legend of Winds Speed, in knots, in the Lower Right of the above Picture.
Please note this is a weak forecast today.
But we show it for clarification of the 500mb or 500hPa winds, plus this intensity [wind speeds] shown is at that pressure level.
Jim and John.
PS: Note the Legend of Winds Speed, in knots, in the Lower Right of the above Picture.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,877
Nothing really.
Windy shows levels above the surface in hPa = hectopascal, 200 hPa = 200 millibar.
The Jet Stream flows upper level at 150-250hPa (250pHa is flight level 340 - 34,000 ft above sea level) and is the primary driver of winds around the planet.
Moving closer to earth High and Low pressure cells are also influenced by the winds at 500hPa as they hit the “gut level” (not a scientific term but it is a good analogy ) of the storm.
The upper level winds can “Shear” off the tops and tilt the storm cells. They can change the make up of the storm bringing in different air moisture levels. All of which impact the way the storm develops or dies. It is a dynamic process In ever motion.
Then you have the High and Low cells interacting. High pressure cells spin clockwise, Low pressure cells spin counter clockwise… Ever play with spinning tops. Try it some time. Lots of fun.
Windy shows levels above the surface in hPa = hectopascal, 200 hPa = 200 millibar.
The Jet Stream flows upper level at 150-250hPa (250pHa is flight level 340 - 34,000 ft above sea level) and is the primary driver of winds around the planet.
Moving closer to earth High and Low pressure cells are also influenced by the winds at 500hPa as they hit the “gut level” (not a scientific term but it is a good analogy ) of the storm.
The upper level winds can “Shear” off the tops and tilt the storm cells. They can change the make up of the storm bringing in different air moisture levels. All of which impact the way the storm develops or dies. It is a dynamic process In ever motion.
Then you have the High and Low cells interacting. High pressure cells spin clockwise, Low pressure cells spin counter clockwise… Ever play with spinning tops. Try it some time. Lots of fun.
Yes they are & their service has saved lots of lives over the years.All of them are Heroes !!!
Jim...
Hard to believe that the idiots in Washington wanted to defund this squadron & flights, approximately 10 years ago, because it cost too much!! Thankfully, intelligent minds prevailed.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,877
This is a storm that is well defined. Has a solid core with vertical development. A broad wind field and a forming eye wall.
Keep an eye on this one. If you have a plan set a minimum 5 day schedule to implement your plan once the storm direction is identified. Be finished with your plan a day or two early.
Keep an eye on this one. If you have a plan set a minimum 5 day schedule to implement your plan once the storm direction is identified. Be finished with your plan a day or two early.
Hurricane Lee is a very serious Storm. We just reviewed the Hurricane Hunters Flight information.
This is tightly wound up.
That Dropsonde #3 indicates it is in the EYE WALL
John thought it was a bad instrument, but no way... this is the #3 drop info.
Dammit Jim and Bone Head John
PS: Tropical Tidbits our sponsor.
This is tightly wound up.
That Dropsonde #3 indicates it is in the EYE WALL
John thought it was a bad instrument, but no way... this is the #3 drop info.
Dammit Jim and Bone Head John
PS: Tropical Tidbits our sponsor.