Greta Thunberg sails back to Europe on La Vagabonde
- Thread starter Captain Larry-DH
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I don’t know, looks pretty good to me. A little windy but not crazy, and in the right direction. Turning back to Bermuda would be brutal into the wind and waves, but that cat should be loving the ride with it. Models I’m seeing look just about perfect. They can modulate their course northerly for more speed, or southerly toward the highs for comfort.
Rhumb line distance is about 2050 nm, so to get there before the 9th would take an average VMG of only about 6 if my math is right.
And you don’t have to take my word for it. Here’s an excerpt from Nikki’s Facebook update last night -
Day 10
We are on the move again. It has been a glorious day. The big purple spinnaker was flying all yesterday afternoon and into the night, and we dropped it as the wind increased around 2200. The boat has been soaring - absolutely sending it! 10-20 knots all day. Amazing. The hum as La Vagabonde starts to plane is a familiar feeling now - and as the sea state flattens we are going even faster.
We have played around with which tack to sail on - right now the wind is coming from exactly opposite where we want to go - we are sailing angles, rather than dead downwind, so the decision of whether to sail more east or more north of our rhumb line is our main challenge right now. We are heading east for now, due to its better VMG (velocity made good - the speed we are moving in the direction of Lisbon). We can only sail about 10-20 degrees course on the other tack.
...
It feels like a bit of a come down after a week of poring over a challenging weather forecast - lots of upwind sailing - careful positioning - slow progress - with a very windy front inevitably awaiting us. So relief was in the air - at least from Riley and myself. Relief but never total relaxation .. we are not even halfway if you count the miles - and I’m sure the North Atlantic will have another challenge to throw our way - so we are as ever - on watch! ... and awake at 0300am.
Rhumb line distance is about 2050 nm, so to get there before the 9th would take an average VMG of only about 6 if my math is right.
And you don’t have to take my word for it. Here’s an excerpt from Nikki’s Facebook update last night -
Day 10
We are on the move again. It has been a glorious day. The big purple spinnaker was flying all yesterday afternoon and into the night, and we dropped it as the wind increased around 2200. The boat has been soaring - absolutely sending it! 10-20 knots all day. Amazing. The hum as La Vagabonde starts to plane is a familiar feeling now - and as the sea state flattens we are going even faster.
We have played around with which tack to sail on - right now the wind is coming from exactly opposite where we want to go - we are sailing angles, rather than dead downwind, so the decision of whether to sail more east or more north of our rhumb line is our main challenge right now. We are heading east for now, due to its better VMG (velocity made good - the speed we are moving in the direction of Lisbon). We can only sail about 10-20 degrees course on the other tack.
...
It feels like a bit of a come down after a week of poring over a challenging weather forecast - lots of upwind sailing - careful positioning - slow progress - with a very windy front inevitably awaiting us. So relief was in the air - at least from Riley and myself. Relief but never total relaxation .. we are not even halfway if you count the miles - and I’m sure the North Atlantic will have another challenge to throw our way - so we are as ever - on watch! ... and awake at 0300am.
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The worst conditions for a cruising sailor, but they also have a racer on board, right?
-Will (Dragonfly)
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,884
Good morning Sailors. Our intrepid cruisers are doing 8.5 knots . They are about 700nm north East of the Sebastian storm and 300 nm west of the storm front, riding on the southern quadrant wind and seas of the large Low dominating the NorthEastern area of the Atlantic. As that Low and the High pressure to it’s south move East ward, I suspect La Vagabonde will try to ride eastward, in that sweet spot, as long as conditions allow them. At present they are about 1990nm from Lisbon (great circle distance). If they are looking for that early Dec arrival they could do it by the 2nd averaging 8.5knots.
Who knows what will happen. They could slow down due to wind changes. They could run into another storm. Things on their Multimillion dollar yacht could wear out and break. All are challenges sailors face.
But, right now I think the Under is looking like a good bet.
Who knows what will happen. They could slow down due to wind changes. They could run into another storm. Things on their Multimillion dollar yacht could wear out and break. All are challenges sailors face.
But, right now I think the Under is looking like a good bet.
I agree Lisbon around Dec 2 unless they decide to reprovision or make a repair stop in the Azores. Great circle route takes them just north of the Azores on current track and is good safety net should conditions get bad or something needs repair. Sebastian looks like not a factor if the forecast holds out.
Correct!
This is why I bet August 9 using a VMG 5 knots.
____
Not me.
Why?
No way to avoid the bad weather conditions at VMG 6
@jssailem and I spent about an hour on the phone last night, makings sure we were "in sync" about Windy.com course and planning.
Note: Weather and Forecasting is planning a wintertime post on how to use Windy.com, for SBO users, to plan their trips.
BTW anyone can do the same or more in that new forum.
______
The key to Way Point or future position planning using your course and speed.
Speed is kinda set by you, in Windy.com[WC]
You do "distance and planning" option to set current position as #1 and future Way Point #2. The WC will give your course bearing and distance. You have to do the math... Distance/ [estimated speed, VMG] = Time of Arrival [ETA] at Way Point #2.
If that is a reasonable VMG, then done.
Or..
You can drag point #2 and recompute until you hit your best estimate of VMG.
Now you have put the speed of your boat into WC.
So What?
Now you move your weather forecast slider to your ETA at point #2 Which reveals point #2 forecasted weather!!
Sounding a bit complicated?
After a few tries it is fairly easy.
Jim...
PS: You UNDER betters, are hoping they pick up VMG. Any UNDER's want to double their original even odds and give me [the Banker] 3 for 1?
I'm in.PS: You UNDER betters, are hoping they pick up VMG. Any UNDER's want to double their original even odds and give me [the Banker] 3 for 1?
Here's my updated Windy guestimate - Windy as forecasted
Point 1 is where they were this time yesterday; Point 2 is now; each subsequent point is around early afternoon for the following days (e.g. point 3 is my guess for early afternoon on the 23rd). If this hold they arrive on the 4th.
I'm now guessing them more north above the Azores so that they can ride northerly winds off the back of a Low pressure system to go back down south. That's still a long way off though so not sure if it'll materialize.
Most are having a great time with the routing and weather predictions. They are actually more interesting. My rambling is of a more philosophical (or juvenile) bent. The planet is in peril. Greta MUST be in Madrid to save the planet. If she is not there, it will be too late to save us. We know that the countdown to 12 years has already started and it may already be too late. We place the survival of humanity in La Vagabonde's speedy delivery of the savior. They simply can't risk weather delays! What good will it do the planet if they save their butts today, but lose sight of the urgency?
Ok, that was nonsense. I actually think delivering Greta to Madrid via sailboat is a great story!
Did the Azores get battered by Lorenzo? I thought I heard that docks were damaged. Is it a worthwhile stop for them? I would guess only for emergency.
It has been fun playing weather router. As they say on TV - don't try this at home (Or at sea as the case is).
Too bad HM Navy didn't have Windy back in the day when they were at war with Napoleon...
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,884
Not sure Rick, but I think the Navigator would go to the Quarter deck, wet his finger in his mouth hold it up above his head and decide on the wind speed and direction. When in doubt they would send the youngest sailor with the longest hair to the top of the main mast to see which way his hair would blow. Compare the information to the compass at the helm, then give orders to set the sails.
With regard to the His Majesty's Navy and their sailing skills against Napoleon's navy, I always thought they were rather good at Trafalgar. Maybe they did not have Windy, but they did have Admiral Nelson, and his Naval tactics sank 18 French and Spanish ships while all of His Majesty's Navy sailed home celebrating their victory.
With regard to the His Majesty's Navy and their sailing skills against Napoleon's navy, I always thought they were rather good at Trafalgar. Maybe they did not have Windy, but they did have Admiral Nelson, and his Naval tactics sank 18 French and Spanish ships while all of His Majesty's Navy sailed home celebrating their victory.
What they did have is..
1) Chronometer
2) Sextant
3) Watches to maintain the plan
And...
4) A Barometer
Falling Barometer was not a good thing.
Jim...
Ok David now has bet 4 beers to my 1 beer. hic hic hic..
______
I looked. Here is what I assumed...
1) Each Way Point was 24 hours apart.
2) Only the 1st, 5 Days is reliable Weather Forecast.
3) VMG/day on your course ≈7.8 knots
Your skills would let you be Captain of my boat, in foul weather.
What David did was move his course with this Key point...
Barometric Pressure RISING.
Captain Dave ends up in the HIGH pressure cell to the EAST.
Greta should arrive the morning of Dec 4th [maybe late on 3rd but she needs fanfare]
_______
Even more than she thought.
Greta has hardly eaten for about a week and thus reduced her Carbon Footprint by High seas...
Jim...
PS: Dave may win his UNDER bet.
Good to remember that each of HM's ships had a sailing master aboard, who sailed the ship, and a Captain, who fought the ship.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,884
Kind of like a Captain on the Bridge, and a Command Officer in the CIC? Na that would never work.
I'll take Jim's challenge and double my wager for under. {It would be interesting if the betting line - December 9 - could be moved by the bookie, Jim, to balance the over and unders. I guess that's what's done by handicappers. So unders might end up overs if the line were moved to say, the 5th. We all still are held to our date but the line changes to make approximately the same number of bets over and under. } I don't know anything about betting but I think as the voyage closes this might be fun.
They had an OoD also but the sailing master was the guy who actually gave the orders to make the ship do what the captain desired. Also the master was the guy who made sure the ship ended up where the captain wished her to go. And the sailing master had mates who stood watches alongside the OoD. The sailing master also trained all the young officers and midshipmen in the navigation and sailing of the ship. A little bit like the XO in today's navies but the sailing master was not typically a commissioned officer in Her Majesty's Navy.
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