TS Don sprung up quickly and is currently tracking through the normal NON-Hurricane areas South of the Antilles and heading toward the Dessert Islands called ABC's Aruba is most famous.
The surface water temperatures here are normal for season. This was the Matthew track and because of low storm chances, the data input to most reliable computer models is scarce.
What was the surprise to forecasters last year was how deep the warm water were in this area.
_______
As a tropical wave passed it normally churns up colder subsurface waters to temper hotter surface water and slow down the storm's intensity.
Not true for the current forecasted path. Deep warm waters.
So much for the Bad news.
________
Good News for USA...
There are 2 sequential High Pressure fronts moving from West going SE. Their timings will push TS Don south and force it to maintain its path going West at least until Saturday.
Also the Jet stream is pushing the steering winds away from the Gulf of Mexico.
______
It appears that Nicaragua & Honduras will get the rain but their mountains should Shred TS Don and die a rainy death there.
By Wednesday there will be enough new data to confirm that it won't do a loop back into Gulf.
______
I will update as needed to stay way out in front of TS Don
Jim...
PS: Our friend @capta is normally in the Antilles and should be north of wind problems.
The surface water temperatures here are normal for season. This was the Matthew track and because of low storm chances, the data input to most reliable computer models is scarce.
What was the surprise to forecasters last year was how deep the warm water were in this area.
_______
As a tropical wave passed it normally churns up colder subsurface waters to temper hotter surface water and slow down the storm's intensity.
Not true for the current forecasted path. Deep warm waters.
So much for the Bad news.
________
Good News for USA...
There are 2 sequential High Pressure fronts moving from West going SE. Their timings will push TS Don south and force it to maintain its path going West at least until Saturday.
Also the Jet stream is pushing the steering winds away from the Gulf of Mexico.
______
It appears that Nicaragua & Honduras will get the rain but their mountains should Shred TS Don and die a rainy death there.
By Wednesday there will be enough new data to confirm that it won't do a loop back into Gulf.
______
I will update as needed to stay way out in front of TS Don
Jim...
PS: Our friend @capta is normally in the Antilles and should be north of wind problems.
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