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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

TS Henri --> Hurricane Henri

Feb 14, 2014
5,624
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
TS Henri [On Ree]
This storm looked like an Atlantic "Fish Storm" until this morning.

The storm may graze the USA on the weekend, and most likely at Hurricane strength.

More to come as TS Henri begins to turn.

Prepare now...
Jim...
 

Bob S

.
Sep 27, 2007
1,685
Beneteau 393 New Bedford, MA
Looks like 'm seeing the first hurricane in 30 years! Keeping a close eye on it but at this point Windy is predicting sustained 21kt with 43 knot gusts around 3:00 Sunday. Too early to tell.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
5,624
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hurricane Henri was called by the Hurricane Hunters at 75 mph sustained winds.

recon_AF302-1108A-HENRI.png


At the time of that flight, the center of the storm just passed into Cooler waters, but used the Gulf Stream Heat to strengthen earlier.

Storms Surge is expected higher than most along the Atlantic Coast have ever seen.
______
This next Graphic is the GFS forecast just before land fall.
Henri.jpeg


Best of luck...

Dammit Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
5,624
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Since Hurricane Henri has passed, we would like to know about experiences or see Pictures from SBO sailors in the path.

Thanks..
Jim and John
 
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Bob S

.
Sep 27, 2007
1,685
Beneteau 393 New Bedford, MA
We lucked out as it hit RI. We were east of the center and had a non event. Winds steady at 20 kts with gusts of 38 kts. We’re behind a hurricane barrier and wind direction kept the sea state and surge reasonable. I think the folks in RI, CT and NY had it worse.
 
Oct 22, 2014
15,813
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
Good to hear Bob.
Did you do anything to prepare your boat for the event?
Were you on your boat during the storm process?
Would you do anything differently?
 
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Feb 14, 2014
5,624
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Nope hurricane barrier
No such a thing.

Jetty and Wave Break wall YES...

Perhaps that "Name" gives people a sense of security that far north.

My boat was set ashore by a 14 foot Storm Surge, plus overcame the wave break barriers along all of the MS Coast Marinas and destroyed most of the boats "Protected" inside it.

I am glad TS Henri had less Storm Surge that your jetty walls.:clap:

Thanks for your feedback Pictures...
Jim...
 
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dmax

.
Jul 29, 2018
464
O'Day 35 Buzzards Bay
New Bedford is considered the safest harbor on the east coast with respect to hurricanes. The barrier is 20 feet high - hurricane Bob had a storm surge of 15 ft - that was 30 years ago, last hurricane to hit New England and much worse than Henri. Katrina level hurricanes aren't likely as the water is much cooler up north (though who knows with climate change).
 
Feb 14, 2014
5,624
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
(though who knows with climate change)
This subject is not part of the Weather & Forecasting forum.;)

We avoid it like Covid 19.:cowbell:

Best Weather forecast is 5 days much less years...
Thanks..
Jim...
 
Oct 26, 2010
1,405
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
Do I read the description correctly that this Hurricane Barrier has a "closable gate" similar (although small I assume) like the Inner Harbor Navigational Canal that was built in New Orleans after the Hurricane Katrina?
 
Oct 26, 2010
1,405
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
On that subject. @JamesG161 do you have any insights on the tropical low projected to develop by Windy European model off of Africa on Wednesday or Thursday? To early to say anything?
 
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Feb 14, 2014
5,624
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
like the Inner Harbor Navigational Canal that was built in New Orleans after the Hurricane Katrina?
Follow the Link in my post #12 above for that answer.
_____

insights on the tropical low projected to develop by Windy European model off of Africa on Wednesday or Thursday?
Yes is do.

So far the preseason predictions of a very active season may be true, but they did not include...

1) Intensity
2) Land Impacts
3) Timing

We are Mid Season now, and so far African spin offs are weak and Fish Storms
Why?
1) Weaker Westerlies.
2) Sahara Desert Winds are Dry in that area
3) African Monsoons are not moving toward the African coast so much.

So far, so good...
Jim