• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

TS Gonzalo <--- TD 7 <--- Invest 99L

JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Looks like the African West coast spin off does have Counter Clockwise [CCW] motion.

Thank the Sahara Dust [actually a powder] for dampening the upper air moisture.

Looks like that plus South American reversing spin will cause Invest 99L to fade away by Friday 24th or Saturday.

I am more concerned about Tuesday 28th LOW that has time to strengthen. If that LOW moves fast we might hear news on it Aug 1st.

The rest of the Invests on NOAA chart are almost laughable. All headed to Texas coast, but moving very fast, which is good.

Jim...
 
  • Like
  • Helpful
Likes: Will Gilmore and kloudie1
JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Tropical Depression 7 started to build late yesterday. It is moving West very fast and should fade, as it passes the Lower Antilles on Saturday.

The Sahara Dust and strong Westerly winds are doing a good job of dampening intensity.:biggrin:

As long as this continues, the wind Shear from South America should kill TD 7.

Jim...

PS: Dishonorable mention is Invest 91L. Fast moving West, like TD 7 and mainly a rain event to TX and LA, ruining the Weekend sailing.:mad:
 
  • Helpful
Likes: Will Gilmore
JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I waited all day for indications of which of the major models would be best.

Nothing much changed EMCWF versus GFS [NOAA].
If TS Gonzalo moves WNW, then it strengthens. [GFS]
If it stays the course West, then it stays weak and dies. [EMCWF]

The Lesser Antilles will get some wind as it passes.

Lets hope TS Gonzalo dies.
Jim...

PS:
JamesG161 said:
Dishonorable mention is Invest 91L.
Click to expand
Organized better as TS Hanna , see next thread.
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

.
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
It is the African Spinoff storm that follows TS Gonzalo that worries me most.

@jssailem and I have been following these strings off spinoff.

We discussed this disturbance when it was 20 days out.:huh:

two_atl_5d0-6.png

It is the YELLOW area that is the key. It is tracking further North and should be on the news on July 28th.

Privately I have said August 1st is important for USA strike potential.

It is time to check your boats for storm preparations....;)
Jim...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Top Bottom