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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

TS Beta <--- TD 22 <--- Invest 90L

Feb 14, 2014
4,899
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Just when I was starting to relax, @kloudie1 asked me about this beauty yesterday.:banghead:

90L_gefs_latest.png


That part of Mexico is very close the Gulf of Mexico drop off to 6000 feet.
Water is always warm and deep.

But this needs watching closely.

Normally the Jet Stream kills storms here, and there are very few HIGH pressures generated over the Desert part of Mexico to guide a LOW.

Thus the Crazy Models showing now.

Jim...

PS: I may have to move my boat again.:cuss:
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,899
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
purchase a replacement anchor
This Ketch owner needed that lesson. He anchored in the Bay of St Louis. MS for Hurricane Sally.

119634726_10217650555031099_5628411757080992702_n.jpg


Whoops Main mast down after his anchor drug bottom with 30 knot winds.

I pass under that Hwy 90 bridge, in the right spot [88 foot clearance] as we sail to the Gulf.

Jim...

PS: The original Bridge with a raising bridge to pass, was completely destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.
This new bridge was finished 2 years after Katrina.:beer:
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,899
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
What is now happening to Invest 90L is Dry Desert Winds from Arizona across Mexico desert is stalling it.
Moisture shown here..
wxloop wv_east_enhanced 12

The Orange is dry winds and the Black part are the Mexico Mountain peaks.
Looking like a least 5 days before any models may change.

Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,899
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Tropical Depression 22 is in the big stall till Monday.

22L_gefs_latest.png


The stall is de-energizing that Area of the Gulf. Note that after it shoots the gap between HIGH's over North Texas the Pressure rises.

The Big question is the name...

Wilfred or Alpha

Any bets?

Jim....
 
Last edited:
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Oct 22, 2014
13,057
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
How about Beta or Bubba?

Oh. They take names from a list. They seem to be naming every thing these days.
After Wilfred (I like Willard better. After all it is a bit of a rat storm) they go Greek.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,899
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
How about Beta
And John Wins!!!! :beer::beer:

Tropical Storm Beta will be on the move on Monday.

recon_AF308-0322A-BETA.png

The storm is meeting shear from that Dry Air on the East which makes it less likely to increase in intensity quickly.
That is why the Hurricane Hunters are looking to the North on this 3rd mission into the storm.

Also note there are 3 NOAA certified SHIPS on the map.

Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
13,057
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
I wonder if this is one of those "last shots" at rainfall this year. Ok maybe not the last, but the earlier this month a discussion of La Nina Pattern and the paths of jet streams is calling for a drier than normal gulf coast this winter.
B65C4189-F937-4F46-AA48-AB0980D568CF.jpeg


Stay tuned as this stuff only happens over a period of time.
 
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