Tropical Storm KIRK--Invest 99L

[JamesG161]

A very big tropical wave picks up modeling as soon as it entered the Atlantic.
It is located much further South than the normal birthing area.

The Southern entry is warmer waters, but this year's West winds are deflecting off South America in a Clockwise motion, which is storm killing or lowering intensification.

Although NOAA is showing a fast growing disturbance, by Sunday 23rd we will know
if its Southerly track will kill it on not.

Jim...

 

[jssailem]

Here is the big picture that Jim (@JamesG161 ) is looking at as of today. 4 Storms all being watched, like 4 hoods hanging around the Atlantic. Just out there wondering what to do. The casual observer would look the other way.
The cop would sit back and watch all 4 wondering which one is going to blink.

Keep your eyes open and check in on the Weather forum.

 

[JamesG161]

Keep your eyes open and check in on the Weather forum.

Although we may stick our necks out a bit, we endeavor to stay in front of these catastrophic potential storms.

We don't wait for the news cycle to say "OMG".
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

Well TS Kirk is the West African Spinoff disturbance.
This could strengthen quickly. It is on a Way Southern Track today, moving West at 14 mph.

The best model ECMF won't start up until late today the 22nd.

Right now TS Kirk will run into unfavorable winds and perhaps start more WNW track on Sunday.
The Antilles will get this plus TD 11 [should have been Kirk].

These type and timing storms tracks, normally curve into the Caribbean, but it would be 10 days for that.

Dammit Jim...

PS: ECMF just ran and shows an Antilles effect in ≈3 days

 

[JamesG161]

TS Kirk will run into unfavorable winds

Kirk officially "bites the dust", after running into very strong East bound winds coming off South America.
Lets hope this is the fate for rest of 2018, African Spinoffs.

Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

I was surprised this morning to see the Hurricane Hunters are currently flying through disturbance Kirk

Kirk is beginning to rotate again. Note they did find a center with the Wind arrows changing directions at ≈Lat 12.1 Long 54.25
Kirk has regained Tropical Storm Status.

Dammit Jim...

 

[kloudie1]

Damit, Jim!

 

[JamesG161]

The good news
High Eastbound wind shear off of South America should kick Kirk's butt.

Bad news..
High speed West steering winds are moving WNW. ECMF model has it curving back West at last run.

Dammit Jim...

PS: Note the models curve to conform to Northern South America land mass.

 

[JamesG161]

Kirk is hitting the Antilles as a small Tropical storm. Then brush Southern East Puerto Rico late on the 28th.
It will die quickly into the Head winds and should disappear as a LOW by Oct 1 without other land mass hit.
Jim...