Tropical Depression 12

[JamesG161]

The newest African wave is on its way toward us. It will steady on and be more forecastable on Sept 20th.
The Bad News...
1) Slow moving versus the previous 5 tropical waves birthed there.
2) Its course is projected to be in the optimum USA strike zone.
3) It organized quickly like Julia. (caught me off guard and never got INVEST status)

The Good News...
1) It is over de-energized water and now average temperature.
2) the Caribbean Islands will probably keep it low energy.

Jim...

 

[BayMan]

I am a great lakes sailor on my way to join all of you tropical storm and hurricane fighters. Let me know when its time to take cover.

 

[njlarry]

Follow all your posts but what does INVEST mean?
Thank you for all your expertise.

 

[Sailm8]

Investigate?

 

[JamesG161]

I thought the Witness Protection people kept you informed.
Oh Well...
If you reach the Atlantic before October, this might be a threat.
Jim...

PS: I have an Erie Feeling about you

 

[JamesG161]

Special INVESTigation! When several models indicate a plausible tropical wave, it gets this tag. Not sure of the numbering system, but it kicks in Satellite and weather watching systems. Actually world wide monitoring.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

@BayMan my post #5 was meant for you.
Jim...

 

[BayMan]

I got the reference. We will be in the atlantic by then. So I have to learn about tides and hurricanes? This sailing stuff is hard work!

 

[Gunni]

Julia is one crazy lady spinning in circles out there. Must be something in the water?

 

[shemandr]

I haven't got time for another storm. Go away Julia!

 

[JamesG161]

TD 12 = Tropical Storm Karl
This SLOW moving storm passed the 40 mph (naming) threshold when daylight occurred, over the storm, at ≈ 4am. The visual satellites were able to feed data to many computer Models.
TS Karl will intensify and reach Hurricane status in the next 2-3 days.
At that point, the news cycle will take over and will track Hurricane Karl for you.
_________
My reason for posting is that I "Stick my neck out" beyond national news. Here is a link for a good computer model source....
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Karl?map=model
My favorite is GFS (red) and a close 2nd is NGFDL (yellow), but these are reliable for about 3 days out. If you look at the course prediction... Look out New Jersey in about a 10 days.
____________
My prediction, WAYYYYY out on a limb......
Hurricane Karl with be a "Fish Hurricane", meaning look out Fish and not landlubbers.
I wouldn't plan a Mid Atlantic (Karl's Path) sailboat adventure before November either. (more tropical waves predicted).

Jim...

PS: Remember my advice is worth what you paid for it.

 

[JamesG161]

Go away Julia!

I have basically ignored Julia and just took a peek at it.
The very Bad news...
TS Julia is STALLED and driving the computer models GA GAH's.
______
I will do some basic research on steering currents and pressure front movements and get back to Julia later today.
Jim...

PS: I agree with @shemandr ... Go away Julia!