• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Temperture - Heat - Storms - Sailing

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,410
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
SEA TEMPERATURES and Storm Development

We need to understand some basics about sea temperatures before we can start using the data to conjecture what may be happening with storm development.

This is the beginning of a series of posts on this thread to develop a basic understanding of how sea surface temperature (SST) affects our sailing experiences.

BASIC - Current Sea Surface Temperatures. SST

The process of gathering SST samples is a testament to human ingenuity. Satellites, Buoys, Drones, and land-based sites, each with its unique capabilities, are all contributing to our understanding of water temperatures and storm development.

1719766785696.png


A current look at the Western Atlantic shows that the water temperatures in the Caribbean are about 30ºC [ 86°F].

Look at all the Red, and one might think the sky is falling. However, recognize this is a single snapshot in time.

The source of Energy that provides the Sea Surface Temperature SST is our Sun.

Note that the comparison below is against an Average over the range of tempertures from 1981- 2010.

1719766802100.png


Look at the current SST and apply historical references to compare present conditions with historical storm development records.

Are the SSTs the same as when Katrina was forming in this part of the ocean?

Based on scientific observation, we have decided that the SST is an essential element to consider regarding the development of all storms.

Looking at today's SST data and comparing these Temperatures to those of the past seven days, are there any changes occurring?

1719766818773.png

The development of SST over time creates a window into the potential for a specific storm to become a threat or to remain a rain producer, eventually wearing itself out over the water.

When we begin to examine a Low cell with the potential to develop into a tropical depression, we always examine the current SST data.
The above images come from the NOAA analytical data available on several weather sites.

Next, on our weather adventure, we will explore Ocean Heat.

Weather and Forecasting
Jim and John