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Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
Strong El Nino is Here
- Thread starter kappykaplan
- Start date
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 24,453
Kappy, we are not among the “Sky is Falling” weather folk.
are posting clickbait on social media sites.
NOAA site:
Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)
Cold & Warm Episodes by Season
Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI):
Historical El Niño / La Niña episodes (1950–Present)
https://forums.sailboatowners.com/threads/2026-tropical-season-begins.1249943724/
“Stronger events do not always mean bigger weather and climate impacts. Stronger events can make it more likely that certain impacts could occur.” NOAA
These are suggested "PROBABILITIES" by NOAA!
What can happen to the weather patterns in the US during a winter of El Niño? This is an indicator, not an absolute of winter weather.
A map of the U.S., Canada, and Central and part of South America showing the effects of El Niño during winter in the Northern Hemisphere. (Image credit: NOAA)
Prepared by James Gurley and John Shepard.
The only folks I have been watching with such statements like:
- Super El Niño
- Strong El Niño
- Apocalypse 2026 El Niño
NOAA site:
Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)
Cold & Warm Episodes by Season
Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI):
Historical El Niño / La Niña episodes (1950–Present)
This site provides the actual temperature anomaly changes for 3-month periods recorded from 1950 to the present. This information is used to determine the state of the ENSO currents and to identify:
El Niño - Neutral - La Niña
labels for the ENSO current.https://forums.sailboatowners.com/threads/2026-tropical-season-begins.1249943724/
“Stronger events do not always mean bigger weather and climate impacts. Stronger events can make it more likely that certain impacts could occur.” NOAA
These are suggested "PROBABILITIES" by NOAA!
What can happen to the weather patterns in the US during a winter of El Niño? This is an indicator, not an absolute of winter weather.
A map of the U.S., Canada, and Central and part of South America showing the effects of El Niño during winter in the Northern Hemisphere. (Image credit: NOAA)
Prepared by James Gurley and John Shepard.
I'm sorry I don't understand the graph presented. The Y axis is Percent Chance (Of a ENSO event?). I don't understand the X axis abbreviations for seasons at all. I don't understand the relevance of the depiction of a winter El Niño event to the our upcoming hurricane season. What does this all mean?
Aren't we talking about the present?
Aren't we talking about the present?
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 24,453
I’ll try and makes sense of the information.
1. The Y axis. It is depicting the probability as a percentage that certain sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly will be measured in the ENSO current. The first grey column indicates an 85% likely hood of a neutral condition. And a 15% of a slight increase in SST, a weak El Niño.
2. The X axis represents the months of the year. AMJ is April-May-June. The SST is measured and the average change is used to determine the state of the current. El Niño flows westward La Niña flows eastward.
if you look at the first link you can review the record (RONI) of SST index from the present back to 1950. One can then correlate the ENSO SST anomalies for each year to the weather patterns experienced in the Northern Hemisphere 6 months later.
3. The map shows the types of winter weather patterns experienced on the North American continent when the spring and summer ENSO current indicates an El Niño condition.
4. We covered Atlantic Hurricane Forecast in our earlier reporting. https://forums.sailboatowners.com/threads/2026-tropical-season-begins.1249943724/
The 2026 season is expected to be a low intensity season. The Tropical Jet stream is expected to bring strong middle and upper wind conditions out of the West. A condition that has been observed in prior years when the ENSO current has been observed as an El Niño. The winds, should they materialize will produce a strong sheering effect which tears the tops off of tropical storms limiting their development.
That being said our Hurricane report does suggest 8-12 tropical storms for the season with 1-2 reaching hurricane strength. A prudent sailor will still develop a plan in case a storm develops.
1) The Northern Pacific Ocean is largest Solar Energy Collector in the World.
2) Equatorial Pacific adsorbs most the Solar Energy
3) 11 year Solar Cycle of "Ups and Downs Energy" causes various Pacific Ocean Currents [Energy Flowing Clockwise]
4) These effects are monitored and used to Forecast weather patterns.
Bottom Line is...
We can barely forecast weather for 5 Days
Jim...