• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

2026 Tropical Season BEGINS

jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
24,453
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Well, it is nearly here. The 2026 Hurricane Season begins on 01 June 2026.

An El Niño year is the dominant theme for 2026.

We have discussed ENSO current activity in the Central Pacific over the past 7 or so years. When the current’s water temperatures rise, and the flow is westward, we call it an El Nińo year. The effect on the Atlantic is to produce conditions that are “less favorable” for hurricane formation.

Based on the temperature readings of the ENSO currents for the past 6 months, that is the expectation.

NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Early preparation essential to staying safe all season

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Colorado State University (CSU) reports.
2026 Forecast Summary
We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity. Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.​
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The CSU Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) forecast is 33 points (at 90) below the 1991 to 2020 average of 123. This is encouraging news, supporting the forecast for a lower-hurricane-event year.

While this is good news, we must remember that this is a forecast of potential, not an absolute. Mother Nature has her own ideas about the ”WEATHER”. As sailors, we need to be ready for a storm that could develop into a dangerous gale. Having a plan to protect our crew and boat is good seamanship.

Prepared by Jim Gurley and John Shepard
 
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