NOAA

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higgs

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Aug 24, 2005
3,708
Nassau 34 Olcott, NY
We all like to complain about noaa getting it wrong, and they certainly do . I contend, however, that a forecast 24 hours in advance is at least in the ballpark most of the time. My question is that if so many of you find them so unreliable, why do you bother checking in with them? Just do your own forecast.
 

richk

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Jan 24, 2007
495
Marlow-Hunter 37 Deep Creek off the Magothy River off ChesBay
We all like to complain about noaa getting it wrong, and they certainly do . I contend, however, that a forecast 24 hours in advance is at least in the ballpark most of the time. My question is that if so many of you find them so unreliable, why do you bother checking in with them? Just do your own forecast.
Forecasting has evolved over the past several decades. Virtually every forecast in the media is based on a weather model. These models are run typically every six hours forecasting out to periods of hours to days. The human factor cannot be ignored. A recent study showed every improvement in model accuracy was accompanied by an increase in the forecast, as modified by a human. In the U.S. NOAA and other federal agencies run these models and their humans make forecasts. Foreign weather services do the same.

See the attached graph.

Rich
 

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Ross

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Jun 15, 2004
14,693
Islander/Wayfairer 30 sail number 25 Perryville,Md.
When you complain about the weather forecast reliability remember the weather forecasting that Gen. Eisenhower had to rely on for the Normandy invasion. He sent weather scout aircraft out as far as Iceland to gather data. By yourself you can gather data from your back yard and your observation of the clouds and winds. If you can get it right for 24 hours you are extraordinary. If you can get it right for three days out you should get into the forecasting business. By yourself you don't know what is happening in the next county.
 

Gail R

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Apr 22, 2009
261
Pearson 34 Freeport, ME
My biggest complaint with NOAA is the forecasts over weather radio lack any kind of specifics, especially if there is a tropical system on its way.

When TS Danny was heading our way in 2009, there was NOT ONE mention of this named storm until the day before. The only hint we had over the radio was some vague mention of the possibility of seas building a bit. Between that and some cell phone messages from friends, we were able to get to a harbor with good protection a couple days ahead of time.

I never got an answer from the local NOAA office to my question of why they did not reference Danny until he was almost here. Advance notification is important for boaters who need to get to safe harbor before it fills up.

I can ony surmise they got a LOT of complaints about Danny because this year, Earl seemed to get more mention further ahead of time. And of course, Earl turned into a non-event, LOL. :)

My techie friends with deep pockets will tell me to get an iPhone with full data package and all the whistles and bells, but I refuse to cave in to the pressure... for now anyway. :)
 

higgs

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Aug 24, 2005
3,708
Nassau 34 Olcott, NY
If NOAA warns us that a storm may be a bad one and it isn't, they get blamed for over reacting. If they misjudge the other way, then they get blamed for not reacting.
 

Ross

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Jun 15, 2004
14,693
Islander/Wayfairer 30 sail number 25 Perryville,Md.
When you are in the open ocean the building of swells will be your first indicator of a major storm. When you are on shore the surf will start to build days ahead of the storm. The swells alway radiate from the storm center just as the ripples from a pebble tossed into calm water. from the direction of the ripples or the swells you can determine the location of the storm.
 

RichH

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Feb 14, 2005
4,773
Tayana 37 cutter; I20/M20 SCOWS Worton Creek, MD
NOAA forecasts are 'broadcast' for LARGE areas. Weather is in actuality 'chaos' and the large scale forecasts only 'average' the chaos.
If you want more 'precise' forecasts, then you have to do your own forecasting, or use a 'weather router'.
 

Tim R.

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May 27, 2004
3,626
Caliber 40 Long Range Cruiser Portland, Maine
I like NOAA because they usually err on the side of caution. As sailors we should appreciate that. The opposite would be much worse.
 
Jan 3, 2009
821
Marine Trader 34 Where Ever I am
Based on todays actual forecast, it will be sunny with clouds and rain. The winds will be 5 to 10 with gusts to 25. Should we go sailing today? Chuck
 
Oct 1, 2007
1,865
Boston Whaler Super Sport Pt. Judith
I don't really knock NOAA for the day to day stuff up here in Southern New England. They are generally ok for the day to day stuff like sun/rain/wind direction, mostly. Where they fall down IMHO is when there is a real big storm coming, particularly hurricanes/tropical storms and other big blows during the summer season. With their relatively new computer based voice system we don't really get the current details and I would be very worried about having NOAA FM radio broadcasts as my only source of facts under those circumstances. They begin reporting on a storm when it is close to Florida or north of Florida for one coming up the coast. As the storm approaches, all they give you is the location and intensity stuff. They do not attempt to describe the expected trajectory with time, which can be seen on TV or on the NHC web page. I remember back in 1997 when I was sailing out of Maine at the time and we were cruising in the Elizabeth Islands, MV, etc. This was well before I had on-board internet connectivity, TV, cell phone, or really a reliable FM radio. All I had was NOAA. So one day I'm getting the morning brief and they are talking about a TS coming up the coast and expected to make landfall in Southern New England in 2 days !!!! No trajectory was given. So there I was in Hadley's trying to decide where the hell to go to weather whatever this was going to be. Well as I listened more during the day they stopped giving any useful information and started playing over and over these canned instructions on hurricane prep for people on shore !!!! All I got for mariners was "..mariners should seek safe harbor...." And I didn't even know where the damned thing was headed. Finally I managed to reach a National Weather Service office up in MA somewhere from the old pay phone booth at Cuttyhunk and a guy very graciously filled me in on the details and we ended up riding the TS out on a mooring in Cuttyhunk. But NOAA was just useless as the storm approached. This is still their procedure today, as we heard with the storms this summer. This actually happened to me another time earlier when I rode out a near miss hurricane anchored in Menemsha. Again, it was sprung on me with insufficient time to get home. Today of course, like most of us, I get my weather from the internet and local TV while cruising so I can watch the storms develop and move wherever they are going to go day by day from several sources on line. I basically use NOAA as "background music" while I am working on the boat or the log, or with the first cup of coffee in the morning. I understand some boats use NOAA as their only source of information but truthfully I wouldn't recommend that route. If someone were to ask me if the NOAA broadcasts are worth whatever budget they need, I would be hard pressed to defend it, especially inland where TV weather is so available and so much better. But as I said earlier, I don't have a real problem with their day to day forecasts. They seem to be generally ok. But definitely not of much use for big storms, when they are needed most. For what it's worth.....
 

zeehag

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Mar 26, 2009
3,198
1976 formosa 41 yankee clipper santa barbara. ca.(not there)
noaa either gets it good or damwrong. when they are good, they are every good, then they are bad they are horrid. LOL.
they predicted severe lightning storms in gulf when we were 60-100 mi off shore in gulf-- we went into st andrews bay and tried to make it up the canal to white city-- we missed-- but that same mid april front brought tornadoes into mississippi that killed 11 or so folks--- so they arent ALWAYS wrong--but they usually seem to be--i like to check with my lappy and view more than 3 sites and buoys
 

higgs

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Aug 24, 2005
3,708
Nassau 34 Olcott, NY
I would venture to say that the local news bases their forecasts on noaa, or at least noaa data. Could be wrong here, but your local TV station does not have the recourses to run numerous computer models etc. The advantage of your local TV is that they, using noaa data, can look at that info from a local point of view, thus possibly being more reliable as noaa can't have meteorologists at every city in the country.
 
Jan 3, 2009
821
Marine Trader 34 Where Ever I am
I would venture to say that the local news bases their forecasts on noaa, or at least noaa data. Could be wrong here, but your local TV station does not have the recourses to run numerous computer models etc. The advantage of your local TV is that they, using noaa data, can look at that info from a local point of view, thus possibly being more reliable as noaa can't have meteorologists at every city in the country.
The local news we see on TV is for pure entertainment value only. We never take them very seriously. Chuck
 
Sep 2, 2009
339
Hunter Vision-32 New Hamburg, NY
NOAA saved my butt

Thursday 6/24/2010 I'm out on Long Island Sound --- the third real day of sailing in my life. I had motored south on the Hudson from New Hamburg and was spending a week + on the Sound with a buddy on my boat and another buddy solo in his Catalina....

I'm over by Rye, NY and thank God I had the VHF on ... we got the severe weather alert.....
and ... thank God my buddy was at the helm at the time and I heard the alert form the VHF down below ...

I immediately assumed the "captain" role and we high-tailed it back across the sound to Manhasset.. It wasn't 15 minutes after we got our mooring that all hell broke loose :

...MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ CONFIRMED NEAR GREAT NECK
IN NASSAU COUNTY NY...

LOCATION...GREAT NECK IN NASSAU COUNTY NY
DATE...JUNE 24 2010
ESTIMATED TIME...250 PM EDT
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...100 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...0.75 STATUTE MILES
PATH LENGTH...0.75 STATUTE MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.80N / 73.74W
ENDING LAT/LON...40.80N / 73.73W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0


My buddy, the Coast Guard veteran and experienced sailor said it was the scariest experience that he's been through. Me - I didn't know any better !!! My jib was turned inside-out and shredded .. as were about 6 other jibs in the harbor. The thing that made the biggest impression on me though, was when the Harbor Patrol made the rounds right after the storm and went boat-to-boat asking if we were OK. Up on the Mid-Hudson, the "authorities" only want to board you and see how many PFDs you have and if you've been drinking ...

So anyway ... thanks to the National Weather Service!!!!
 

Ross

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Jun 15, 2004
14,693
Islander/Wayfairer 30 sail number 25 Perryville,Md.
The weather underground for Bel Air
10 miles west of Havre de Grace.
NWS Hourly Forecast for Thursday

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database
Bel Air, Maryland (21014)
TuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdaySundayMondayTuesdayWednesday
2 AM
5 AM
8 AM
11 AM
2 PM
5 PM
8 PM
11 PM
Temperature / Dew Point (°F):50 / 47





49 / 47





52 / 49





63 / 49





68 / 49





67 / 49





59 / 49





56 / 47





Humidity (%):89% 92% 89% 60% 50% 50% 66% 74% Wind (mph):

9 mph West
(260°)

7 mph WSW
(250°)

8 mph WSW
(250°)

12 mph West
(270°)

13 mph WNW
(290°)

12 mph WNW
(290°)

7 mph WNW
(300°)

7 mph NW
(310°)
Conditions:

Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy

Clear

Clear

Clear

Clear Probability of Precipitation (%):20% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Cloud Cover (%):55% 33% 41% 31% 21% 19% 0% 0%
Forecast Summary
Extended Forecast for ZIP Code 21014

That copy and paste doesn't preserve the format.
 
Jan 26, 2010
14
Beneteau 473 San Diego
I sailed from San Diego to Hawaii and back and got weather forecasts daily. I decided that, 1) they are fairly reliable, 2) they change from day to day so don't get one and think you have the next few day's forecast, 3) the direction and magnitude predictions were good enough to make decisions about my own course. Hey, they are predictions using models that aren't perfect. But, they are close enough to rely on and make decisions from.
 

zeehag

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Mar 26, 2009
3,198
1976 formosa 41 yankee clipper santa barbara. ca.(not there)
I sailed from San Diego to Hawaii and back and got weather forecasts daily. I decided that, 1) they are fairly reliable, 2) they change from day to day so don't get one and think you have the next few day's forecast, 3) the direction and magnitude predictions were good enough to make decisions about my own course. Hey, they are predictions using models that aren't perfect. But, they are close enough to rely on and make decisions from.
weather in pacific in certain seasons is very predictable even without any noaa. we dont have lightning a storms and frequent line squall activity here. other places in this vast nation DO have frequent NEED to check and recheck weather more than once per day. noaa doesnt seem to have a problem with the predictions in the pacific. LOL. cali weather is very easy to predict-- i could do it at age 4, and with as much accuracy as noaa....
try getting gulf coast or midwest weather accurately --LOL---i been there-- isnt easy, unless you have been thee for a couple of years and know the patterns--even then isnt easy..... and then, wait another 10 mins, it will change again...



but they are so much fun to bag on when the weather is totally opposite their predictions!!!!
 

richk

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Jan 24, 2007
495
Marlow-Hunter 37 Deep Creek off the Magothy River off ChesBay
early morning ramblings

weather in pacific in certain seasons is very predictable even without any noaa. we dont have lightning a storms and frequent line squall activity here. other places in this vast nation DO have frequent NEED to check and recheck weather more than once per day. noaa doesnt seem to have a problem with the predictions in the pacific. LOL. cali weather is very easy to predict-- i could do it at age 4, and with as much accuracy as noaa....
try getting gulf coast or midwest weather accurately --LOL---i been there-- isnt easy, unless you have been thee for a couple of years and know the patterns--even then isnt easy..... and then, wait another 10 mins, it will change again...



but they are so much fun to bag on when the weather is totally opposite their predictions!!!!
NOAA's marine forecast responsibility does not extend very far offshore, compared to the breadth of the oceans (for example see http://www.weather.gov/om/marine/zone/wrdoffmz.htm)
.
One of the problems complicating marine forecasting is lack of data, although that is being remedied with dependence on satellite microwave information for initializing weather models (see http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/documents/newsletters/200912JCSDAQuarterly.pdf))

At any rate, validating a forecast, especially one affecting boaters, is still problematic because surface data density over ocean is much less than over water. (See attached graphic.)

In many instances West Coast sailors have a more benign envionment than their east coast counterparts, at least off the California coast. This is in part due to the capability of surface heating from an upstream land mass to alter the atmosphere. However, personal experience reminds me of local coastal flooding, wind and seas which affected an assignment ashore and caused my ship in a floating drydock some anxious moments (in addition to destroying a large portion of Santa Monica pier in the late '70s/early '80s.

[sorry for the rambling nature of this post but I've been on business travel and haven't adjusted to the 6 hour time difference. Besides, I'm missing the sailboat show back home]
rich
 

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