Maine Visitors

[smokey73]

Good for you for wearing a mask; we do as well, and after a day of initial strangeness, it now feels strange to NOT have it on.

But on to your point. Its this inbred belief that many Americans possess; that they have to the constitutional right to do whatever the hell they want - that will stretch this pandemic on here in the USA for much longer than other places that had the discipline to do a true shutdown. We are already seeing sighs of that.

Thinking our freedom is in danger is the wrap that is put around it to make it sound like a valid issue, when most just want to go to Buffalo Wild Wings.

You are overstating my position. I am not saying that controls are not warranted and should not be in place. On the contrary, they should be and should be done within our legal system. I am pretty sure the Supreme Court would agree. In fact, there have already been court decisions on the legality of controls put in by "edict." There is a right way and a wrong way to impose contols. I am not a anarchist nor Antifa.

Now, as to whether our current course of action will "stretch this pandemic on here in the USA for much longer than other places that had the discipline to do a true shutdown" with the key words being "stretch for much longer" is an issue for study that we probably won't know of until its all over. Was Sweden right in no controls. The purpose of the controls is not to "shorten" the duration, but to reduce the "peak" so as to not overload our caregiving capacity (icu beds and ventillators). The duration will only be shortened by a vacine or by herd immunity. In fact, reducing the peak will only lengthen the duration. All it take is "1 new patient one" to restart this pandemic until we have a vacine or her immunity. My only question is "where is the line" for unilateral edict by elected officials rather than legislation?

 

[TomY]

The Governor of Maine has been making these decisions on her own, without the House or Senate's approval or input. Both sides of the aisle are upset over this and hearing it daily from their constituents. This essentially makes her a "self appointed dictator" (as said to me by a State rep who is on the Governors side but pissed about not being included in the process) as she is ignoring our State Constitution. As the ex Attorney General she really should know better and should have included our elected officials in these decisions.

Infractions under the Governors orders are considered a Class E crime (misdemeanor). How enforceable, after this is all over, who knows... We have a State Constitution and an elected Senate and House to do the job of passing laws, none of which were actually drawn up by the House & Senate nor voted on, just "Executive Orders" from the Governors office.

Still, the Governor is fining businesses and people for violating these orders and we'll need to see how it washes out. Right now their is a large class action suit taking place and many others in the works.

My wife's old business partner died of an MI two weeks ago, at the age of 49, he was in very good shape with zero underlying heart related issues. He dropped dead in his kitchen, in front of both children, three hours after having to lay off his staff. My wife can't even think straight right now as he was a very close friend to both of us. It's really too bad these types of cases are not being considered. A local guy drank himself to death after his AA meetings were shut down by the Governor. He had been sober for years. My wife has patient who she believes is now addicted to opiates after her hip replacement surgery was put on hold and she was on pain killers for the last three months. How many cases like these are out there that we'll never hear about?

A good friend had to lay off over 200 employees and is now about to lose the entire business, a business he spent the last 32 years building from absolutely nothing. He employed close to 250 Mainers who likely will be out of work permanently.His suit is a bit different as he is going after the Governor for acting without the input or approval of the House & Senate, because there are no laws that actually back what she did. Interesting to say the least.

I can commiserate (especially with your wifes associate) but things sound tougher, down your way.

Not everybody is in agreement, but up our way, the vast majority seem behind the govs executive orders.

Nothing like the friends you mentioned but we lost a long term summer rental (in our house - we expected to). Most businesses have taken a big hit. A few have flourished.

But I see no law enforcement stepping in or fines dolled out, locally.

On the other hand, peer pressure has been an active enforcer at businesses or other places where people can't distance safely. Masks are the rule, with a few exceptions.

Southern Maine is recording community transmission in the 3 counties at the border. Yet, all up the coast after you leave those counties, I believe all are showing no community transmission. I see Penobscot County is showing community transmission but that may be it. Mostly due to population density, but we took this seriously early on.

We're like an island compared to points south which is a hotbed in comparison. I think that is why the majority of our local communities are in support.


It changes daily as things open up but I fear this recession will last.

#COVID19

public.tableau.com

 

[Bob S]

Massachusetts required masks when in public places in early May. I don't feel like my rights have been infringed but I did feel a little weird going into a store for the first time. It's out of respect for others I wear it. Living in an area known for vacationers (Cape Cod) we see lots of out of state cars. I sure most are rentals but there is a fair amount of vacationers that own property too. That holds true no matter what state you come from. We have close friends living in Vermont that shun when the see MA or NY license plates. I own a vacation home in the White Mountains of NH. We go up to relax but we bring our food from home and haven't been anywhere where we'd be close to people. This whole situation stinks, we didn't see it coming but we really have to go out of our way to respect each other and wearing a mask and not being oblivious to what is happening is all we can do.

 

[TomY]

Massachusetts required masks when in public places in early May. I don't feel like my rights have been infringed but I did feel a little weird going into a store for the first time. It's out of respect for others I wear it. Living in an area known for vacationers (Cape Cod) we see lots of out of state cars. I sure most are rentals but there is a fair amount of vacationers that own property too. That holds true no matter what state you come from. We have close friends living in Vermont that shun when the see MA or NY license plates. I own a vacation home in the White Mountains of NH. We go up to relax but we bring our food from home and haven't been anywhere where we'd be close to people. This whole situation stinks, we didn't see it coming but we really have to go out of our way to respect each other and wearing a mask and not being oblivious to what is happening is all we can do.

Maine still does not have a mask requirement, outdoors, as of now. But I wish we did simply for the knuckleheads (very few here, luckily) that don't get the reasoning.

It would be a nuisance for us walking or hiking, no problem keeping a safe distance from others, but it seems like the best course right now as we see the growing influx of tourists.

My harbor is as active as any year this past week mostly due to land travelers using the public parks, trails and beaches in town. We're still at no trace of transmission but that could change in a few weeks, as we well know. Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont must look like an island oasis to Covid wracked areas down south of here.

There are quite a few visiting boats in the area I'm seeing online and on the water, but nothing like normal. I think many are taking advantage of this rare season of having the water to themselves.

An H 12 1/2, Herreshoff's 'first boys sailboat' designed in 1914. These have been reinvented in fiberglass and wood composite but the plank on frame versions, many ancient, are the most popular. Certainly no longer 'the boys first sailboat' H 12 1/2's are sailed by experienced sailors.

Lots of fog this year, so far. But fog happens in Maine, just like Crocs.

A Bridges Point 24 (I think).

A big catboat. swellin up. Generally with a beam that is 1/2 the length. Catboats remind me of log cabins: Not the most popular, but somebody always wants one.

 

[TomY]

We're in a bubble here on Penobscot Bay as Covid-19 closes in around us.

The country registered it's second highest number of new infections. Will we escape in our bubble? No telling. We're doing the best we can as large numbers arrive by the roads to enjoy our coast.

Kids are still taking sailing lessons at the Boat Club. There's plenty of room at the public docks.

On the water, 2020, is the best of the best. Less boats, hot days, cool nights.

I watched a couple boat builders row out in a Shellback they no doubt built. Fewer boats launched, even the boat builders seem to have extra time to enjoy the water in 2020.

A few minutes later I see the pair was sailing, just sailing out in the harbor. About 50% of the moorings are empty. This makes for great harbor sailing.

The crew on a large Fife yawl took advantage of extra time to wash sail covers. The big yawl is likely to spend more time on the docks in 2020.

 

[Bob J.]

Maine still does not have a mask requirement, outdoors, as of now. But I wish we did simply for the knuckleheads (very few here, luckily) that don't get the reasoning.

But you can't legislate for the galacticly stupid... I can't believe the amount of "locals" that aren't wearing masks. I go into some of the smaller stores, there's no social distancing, the employees & most of the customers know I'm from away because I have a mask on. In one place even the food prep people weren't wearing a mask. I left that establishment without even buying anything. Couldn't move fast enough to get out of that place.
Then you have the folks that wear them when they're outdoors...
Strange days indeed.

 

[rgranger]

Then you have the folks that wear them when they're outdoors...
Strange days indeed.

And the people who wear them under their nose

 

[jssailem]

the people who wear them under their nose

Over their nose they fog their glasses and can not see a thing. Damned if you do and dangerous if you don’t.

 

[smokey73]

Over their nose they fog their glasses and can not see a thing. Damned if you do and dangerous if you don’t.

If you don't cover both your mouth and nose you might as well not wear a mask. As Jeff Foxworthy used to say "Here's your sign." About the only thing covering only your own mouth will help is if you cough but you could take care of that with a handerchief. Your protection from the mask is pretty much 0 since most people breath through their nose and with a mask on even more of your breathing would be through your nose.

Why bother? Guess it makes you "compliant" with the wear mask rule since the rule "doesn't say I have to wear it correctly".

 

[Captain Larry-DH]

View attachment 180883

No date on your infographic, or source. (Fake news?) Compare with total deaths and the US has by far the most deaths in the world:

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Every other country has done a better job of controlling the spread. Not opinion. Fact based on total mortality. Apparently we’re doing well with treatment, but we've put a heavy burden on the healthcare workers and system by failing to control the spread. (IMHO “confirmed cases” is highly dependent on testing, and there’s not enough consistency on testing to use confirmed cases as a yardstick).
edit: there’s also some question as to whether we’re testing the right things, or whether tests are accurate enough.

 

[Captain Larry-DH]

Other states (and the federal government) should look toward NY as an example. It’s under control and the number of covid related deaths are down. Why? People are social distancing and wearing masks, washing hands, using hand sanitizer etc. Quarantining for no reason doesn’t make sense to me, but if you know you’ve been exposed or have been in a high risk situation (air or train travel, for instance) then it makes sense to self-isolate for the sake of others.

 

[smokey73]

Every other country has done a better job of controlling the spread. Not opinion. Fact based on total mortality.

Other states (and the federal government) should look toward NY as an example. It’s under control and the number of covid related deaths are down. Why? People are social distancing and wearing masks, washing hands, using hand sanitizer etc. Quarantining for no reason doesn’t make sense to me, but if you know you’ve been exposed or have been in a high risk situation (air or train travel, for instance) then it makes sense to self-isolate for the sake of others.

@Captain Larry-DH I think you should consider other possible explainations. First, NY particularly the city was an early epicenter, with testing limited by available tests and and such, it is reasonable to postulate that the number of actual cases was much much more that the confirmed cases, and as such holding it as an example may be premature. As testing ramps the total cases will tend up as would be expected. What's more important the ratio of confirmed cases to actual cases will dramatically change. I suspect, it is reasonable to assume with the limited testing there were many many people infected with no symptoms who were never in the count? Is it even remotely possible that much of NY, NJ and the initial hot spots have reached near "herd immumity". I don't know but before I held up NY as an example I'd look at the mortality there and either they had a really pitiful health care system (which I don't believe) or they had many, many more severe cases and that is not something to hold up as an example. We will not know how we, or the rest of the world, did until the "after action report" (if you are familiar with the military and the fog of war.")

Now to controlling the spread and the effectiveness of our health care sytem. Would you agree that England is a fair comparison to the US? Are they doing a better job than us? Lets see. Here are two references to use, run your own numbers and draw your own conclusion rather than what you are told by media. My daddy always said "believe 10% of what you hear and 50% of what you see. Gather info and don't let others tell you what to think." Both of these are sources that I think most will accept as authoritative.

Source 1: Population by Country (2020) - Worldometer

We are the third most populus country in the the world behind only China and India. If you have been to either one (and I have) you will understand that any numbers from them are skewed by not only political motives but a very populated country where a large portion of the population that is nearly third world. I'd be happy to talk to you about China off line.

Source 2: IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Lets take the UK. So they are doing so much better than the US? Using the accepted projections through Nov 1st from source 2 and adjusting for the ratio of respective populations:

Country Ratio of population Equivalent Projected Deaths
US: 1 219,864
UK 4.9 251,579
Italy 5.474 206,276
Spain 7.07 237,405
These all seem to be within some reasonable statistical variation with a model that is variable itself.
Use only countries where you have confidence in their abiltity to accurately account for COVID-19 deaths and would be truthful. Draw your own conclusions. As far as I am concerned this points out that, within the accuracy of the model to predict we are on par, if not better than the rest of the Western World. Some thoughts to consider?
1. the other countries peaked before us because we cut off travel from China early
2 This is a nasty disease and no matter what we do, short of collapsing our economy, we are in for a long nasty battle and no matter what we do, it will take its toll. The best we can do is try to stave off the peaks to keep from overwhelming the health care system and push for a vaccine. i support masks although I am not sure they are effective. Keep in mind the "so called experts" said there was no chance for a vaccine until early 2021 and we may be on our way to one by the end of this year. Again, draw your own conclusion not what you hear on Fox or CNN or NBC. Use your brain more than your ears.

 

[smokey73]

The really interesting one is Sweden. With a population of only 10,099,265 and absolutely no controls - ie no social distancing, no masks, no extreme shutdown etc.- a "bring it on" approach, one would expect that they are doing a terrible job of controlling Covid-19 since they have no controls. Their death rate should be much higher than every one else if controls like masks and social distancing were the answer. However, when adjusted for population, their predicted deaths (when ratioed to US population) would be 180,262. What gives? Does cold kill this thing? Is a stiff shot of whatever they drink the answer? Maybe its that they, on the whole, are more healthy and have less underlying conditions than us and COVID-19 preys on those with underlying conditions. However, that is not a COVID-19 control issue, its a lifestyle issue and that ship sailed a long long time ago. So maybe control of spread is not the issue, we got into the position we are in, based on mortality, because we are in such poor health as a country and again, that is not a COVID-19 control issue except to try to protect the vulnerable and holding NY up as an example of that falls apart. They did a jam up job on that one.

Less you judge that I don't think we need controls. My wife and I are both in that vulnerable population. I am 69 and have had three heart attacks and 5 way bypass surgery and my wife is 65 and is Type 1 diabetic. I am doing everything I can to keep from getting it but I don't blame the US for poor controls, I just say "da%$ the bad luck." I don't judge the country as being the worst in the world at dealing with this plague. Again, "believe 10% of what you hear and 50% of what you see." Arrive at your own conclusions, not what someone else is telling you.

 

[Rick486]

I believe over 50% of our deaths from coronavirus have been in so called "aggregated" settings such as nursing homes and assisted living. And many of those had underlying conditions not reported on.

 

[smokey73]

Two more points that might be considered to form your conclusion.
1. Belgium, adjusted for total population would have 293,942 or about 34% more total deaths by November 1st
2. Look at the shape of the curves from source 2 comparing the various countries slope. I won't tell you what conclusion to draw from that look but it tells me something, at least anecdotally. The US slope is relatively low, compared to say Belgium. What would that tell you if this were a curve of people buying a brand new product?

By the way, I am not a Snowflake so I may disagree with what you say but I will defend to the death your right to say it.

 

[odaydokay]

The poster child seems to be Germany. Early lock down, tracing, tracing tracing, tracking, tracking, tracking, testers knocking on doors in Munich to test folks etc. I saw this stationed there in the Army in the 60's. If someone got something, they got the third degree as to where they had been and who they had been with, then they went and found them and tested them. That's how you slow the spread and you have to do it early on. If you have to come up with a plan, you are already a step too late.

 

[jviss]

It's kind of silly to compare "the U.S" to any single European country. The U.S. is about the same land mass as all of Europe. It is comprised of fifty independent states, and much of what is done in cases of pandemics is up to the states, not the federal government. Europe has 44 countries, and the EU. So comparing the US to Italy, or Germany, for example, is just silly.

 

[Don S/V ILLusion]

The poster child seems to be Germany. Early lock down, tracing, tracing tracing, tracking, tracking, tracking, testers knocking on doors in Munich to test folks etc. I saw this stationed there in the Army in the 60's. If someone got something, they got the third degree as to where they had been and who they had been with, then they went and found them and tested them. That's how you slow the spread and you have to do it early on. If you have to come up with a plan, you are already a step too late.

That is what is being done on many Caribbean Islands and a few states like RI which are equally small. It’s a dubious comparison to pick any small area but if you want, look at similar sized sections of the mid west, Key West, etc...or places where far fewer people live, e.g., Vt or Maine. Solutions aren’t a one size fits all.

 

[odaydokay]

Yes, probably right not to generalize. My state of CT has done a good job, maybe not quite Germany level, but very satisfactory. Some other states have not even shown up so our national record is so bad I am not even allowed in Europe right now and that's really embarrassing.

 

[jviss]

My state of CT has done a good job, maybe not quite Germany level, but very satisfactory.

Interesting. CT is number 4 (tied with MA) in death rate among US states,.

U.S. COVID-19 death rate by state | Statista